Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

JD Health International  / Equity Capital Markets

JD Health International, the largest online healthcare platform and retail pharmacy in China has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company is backed by the Chinese online retail giant JD.Com, and is planning to raise about US$3bn through the IPO.In this insight, we examine the company’s business model and its financials.

JD Health International, the largest online healthcare platform and retail pharmacy in China has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company is backed by the Chinese online retail giant JD.Com, and is planning to raise about US$3bn through the IPO.In this insight, we examine the company’s business model and its financials.

JD Health Pre-IPO: Poised to Benefit from Structural Changes in Healthcare in China and the Pandemic

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>  provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates m3.com, its key platform alongside several other websites and platforms aimed at providing different services such as information provision, marketing services, medical health records and career solutions for physicians and medical practitioners.The company share price has more than doubled to JPY6,380 per share (from JPY2,921 on 26th March 2020) since we last wrote on the company. In this insight, we examine the key catalysts behind the company’s share price rally and the valuation.

M3 Inc (2413 JP)  provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates m3.com, its key platform alongside several other websites and platforms aimed at providing different services such as information provision, marketing services, medical health records and career solutions for physicians and medical practitioners.The company share price has more than doubled to JPY6,380 per share (from JPY2,921 on 26th March 2020) since we last wrote on the company. In this insight, we examine the key catalysts behind the company’s share price rally and the valuation.

M3 Inc: Intelligent Adaption to Covid-19 Should Sustain Medtech Earnings Growth Even Post-Pandemic

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/693/original/2020-09-14_09-50-37.png?1600044664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158693"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables except as stated: Japan Analytics</div>EQUITY-DRIVEN - Japan's aggregate Shareholders' Equity has appreciated by 45% since 2014 - an annual rate of 5.5% and has been one of the key achievements of the 'Abe era'. For the five years before 2012, Shareholders Equity was unchanged, buffeted by the 2008/9 financial crisis and the 3/11.  Although the equity market has responded well to the change in reserves, Japan's PBR has remained within a range of 1.05 to 1.38 over the last decade and is unchanged compared to 2010. In prior post-bubble 'lost' decades, the average PBR was 1.8 times. In other markets, the rise of intangible assets has called the use of Book/Price as a metric and the S&amp;P 500 PBR is now almost three times that of the Japan aggregate having bottomed at 1.78 in March 2009.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/694/original/File%202020-09-14%2010%2007%2037.jpeg?1600045681" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158694"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: multpl.com</div>BOOK VALUE PER SHARE - In this Insight, we shall look at Japan's larger-cap companies (current market value &gt;¥100 billion) through the 'lens' of book value per share. Our focus will be less on the 'winners' and 'losers' than on those companies that have seen the least change in 'BVPS' over the last seven years. Our share count excludes treasury shares which is to the benefit of companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> which has seen a 20% reduction in Net Shares Outstanding, but only a 9% increase in Shareholders' Equity. A BVPS growth metric does, however, flatter serial issuers of equity with declining share prices, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sosei-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:770:1" rel="noopener">Sosei (4565 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/696/original/2020-09-14_10-26-48.png?1600046818" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158696"></figure>WINNERS - As many may ask and for the record, our 'winning' thirty companies contains many of Japan's best-performing businesses and 'priciest 'stocks, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">Monotaro (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-payment-gateway-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1" rel="noopener">GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a>. Some of the more surprising entries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">mixi (2121 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>.  As an equally-weighted portfolio, this group has outperformed by 30% over one year and by 11% over the last three months.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/697/original/2020-09-14_10-33-13.png?1600047204" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158697"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/698/original/2020-09-14_10-33-41.png?1600047231" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158698"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/701/original/2020-09-14_10-47-56.png?1600048087" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158701"></figure>LOSERS - Our list of losers, who have collectively underperformed by 9% over one year, have many of Japan's weaker business models (shipping, oil &amp; gas, paper, copiers, gaming machines. The list also features some of the less-astute management 'teams' (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin (2503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil (5938 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>).  Also among the latter are two medical-related business - the now remained <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-u-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16580:1" rel="noopener">H.U. Group (4544 JP)</a> (formerly Miraca) and recent Bain PE target <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichii-gakkan-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6790:1" rel="noopener">Nichii Gakkan (9792 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/706/original/2020-09-14_10-57-45.png?1600048692" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158706"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/707/original/2020-09-14_10-59-22.png?1600048774" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158707"></figure>In the DETAIL section below, we all review the large companies that have seen the least change in BVPS over the last seven years and those with the lowest BVPS volatility over the same period. Our lists contain quite a few surprises.

Source for all charts &amp; tables except as stated: Japan AnalyticsEQUITY-DRIVEN - Japan's aggregate Shareholders' Equity has appreciated by 45% since 2014 - an annual rate of 5.5% and has been one of the key achievements of the 'Abe era'. For the five years before 2012, Shareholders Equity was unchanged, buffeted by the 2008/9 financial crisis and the 3/11.  Although the equity market has responded well to the change in reserves, Japan's PBR has remained within a range of 1.05 to 1.38 over the last decade and is unchanged compared to 2010. In prior post-bubble 'lost' decades, the average PBR was 1.8 times. In other markets, the rise of intangible assets has called the use of Book/Price as a metric and the S&amp;P 500 PBR is now almost three times that of the Japan aggregate having bottomed at 1.78 in March 2009.Source: multpl.comBOOK VALUE PER SHARE - In this Insight, we shall look at Japan's larger-cap companies (current market value &gt;¥100 billion) through the 'lens' of book value per share. Our focus will be less on the 'winners' and 'losers' than on those companies that have seen the least change in 'BVPS' over the last seven years. Our share count excludes treasury shares which is to the benefit of companies such as NTT (9432 JP) which has seen a 20% reduction in Net Shares Outstanding, but only a 9% increase in Shareholders' Equity. A BVPS growth metric does, however, flatter serial issuers of equity with declining share prices, such as Sosei (4565 JP).WINNERS - As many may ask and for the record, our 'winning' thirty companies contains many of Japan's best-performing businesses and 'priciest 'stocks, such as Monotaro (3064 JP), M3 (2413 JP), GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP), and Kobe Bussan (3038 JP). Some of the more surprising entries are mixi (2121 JP) and Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP).  As an equally-weighted portfolio, this group has outperformed by 30% over one year and by 11% over the last three months.LOSERS - Our list of losers, who have collectively underperformed by 9% over one year, have many of Japan's weaker business models (shipping, oil &amp; gas, paper, copiers, gaming machines. The list also features some of the less-astute management 'teams' (Toshiba (6502 JP), Nissan (7201 JP), Kirin (2503 JP), Lixil (5938 JP), and Aeon (8267 JP)).  Also among the latter are two medical-related business - the now remained H.U. Group (4544 JP) (formerly Miraca) and recent Bain PE target Nichii Gakkan (9792 JP).In the DETAIL section below, we all review the large companies that have seen the least change in BVPS over the last seven years and those with the lowest BVPS volatility over the same period. Our lists contain quite a few surprises.

🇯🇵 Japan • Every Shareholder Left Behind - The Book Value Per Share Metric

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Cardinal Res., Japan Retail Fund, HSBC, Opticomm, Tiffany/LVMH

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

TSE Mothers-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medpeer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4090:1" rel="noopener">Medpeer Inc (6095 JP)</a> announced (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/6095/tdnet/1881489/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-only</a>) after market close today it had received approval to move to TSE1 as of 15th September 2020. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 29th October 2020. MedPeer is a health-tech company that mainly operates a "doctors-only" social-media platform that enables online knowledge sharing between doctors. This "collective medical intelligence" is then used to provide marketing solutions for pharmaceutical companies and medical device manufacturers. They also provide virtual healthcare solutions to online medical consultation and dietary coaching services. In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the Fundamentals of the company to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event and the trade on the follow.

TSE Mothers-listed Medpeer Inc (6095 JP) announced (J-only) after market close today it had received approval to move to TSE1 as of 15th September 2020. TSE1 reassignment triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index and the Inclusion Event can be expected to be at the close of trading 29th October 2020. MedPeer is a health-tech company that mainly operates a "doctors-only" social-media platform that enables online knowledge sharing between doctors. This "collective medical intelligence" is then used to provide marketing solutions for pharmaceutical companies and medical device manufacturers. They also provide virtual healthcare solutions to online medical consultation and dietary coaching services. In this insight, we take a look at the Index Inclusion Parameters and the Fundamentals of the company to evaluate the upside potential of the TOPIX Inclusion Event and the trade on the follow.

Japan

JMDC Inc. offers information services. The Company provides medical data statistics, life insurance data statistics, health data platform management, and other services. JMDC provides its services throughout Japan.

Software Service, Inc. develops and sells medical information software for hospital uses.  The products include electronic medical carte and order entry system.  The Company also provides training and maintenance services.

Findex Inc plans, develops and maintains software products specialized in healthcare.  The Company also builds and provides medical net-work system for medical industry.

Medical Data Vision Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2003. The company's line of business includes developing integrated medical information systems, analysis of medical information, and business consulting for medical institutions.

ASAHI INTECC CO., LTD. manufactures medical tools as well as both medical and industrial-use stainless wire rope.  The Company's main products include catheters, guidewires, and miniature coils for endoscopic devices.

MEDIPAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION manufactures and sells medical tools and equipment, nursing equipment, and wholesales pharmaceuticals.

SYSMEX CORPORATION manufactures reagents and equipment for clinical tests including hematologic (blood) and immune tests. The Company also develops, manufactures, and trades particle analyzers such as blood coagulation analyzer and related software. Manufacturing and sales outside Japan include the United States, EMEA, China and Asia Pacific regions.

JEOL Ltd. manufactures electron optics instruments and analytical instruments including electron microscope, X-ray diffractometer and spectrometer and thermographs.  The Company also makes semiconductor manufacturing equipment, medical equipment and industrial equipment.

NIHON KOHDEN CORPORATION develops, manufactures, and sells medical equipment, transformers, and power switches and devices.  The Company's products include testing equipment for cerebral nerve such as electroencephalographs, circulatory systems, diagnostic equipment, catheters, biogenic monitoring systems such as electrocardiographs used into patient monitoring systems.

Alfresa Holdings Corporation is a holding company established through the merger of Azwell Inc. and Fukujin Co., Ltd.  The Company's subsidiaries mainly wholesale and manufacture medical related products including medicines, reagents, and medical tools and equipment.

Pro Medicus Limited develops and supplies proprietary software and IT solutions for large medical corporations and individual medical group practices.  The Group's services include billing and management systems for diagnostic imaging providers, clinical reporting systems, and appointment booking services.  Pro Medicus' e-mail system delivers encrypted diagnostic reports to group doctors.

Evolent Health, Inc. provides a purpose-built platform, powered by our technology, proprietary processes and integrated services, enables providers to migrate their economic orientation from fee-for-service, or FFS, reimbursement to payment models that reward high-quality and cost-effective care, or value-based payment models.

Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. develops and sells medical software, and provides technology supporting services and comprehensive information technology solutions to the health care industry.

Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. A (300253 CH)

Winning Health Technology Group Co., Ltd. A

NextGen Healthcare, Inc. develops and markets healthcare information systems. The Company's systems automate medical group practices, physical hospitals, management service organizations, community health centers, and dental schools. NextGen Healthcare offers its services throughout the United States.

Omnicell, Inc. provides an integrated suite of clinical infrastructure and workflow automation solutions for healthcare facilities.  The Company's solutions include pharmacy and supply systems, clinical reference tools, an Internet-based procurement application, and decision support tools.  Omnicell sells and leases its products and services to a range of healthcare facilities.

HealthStream, Inc. offers a Web-based solution to the continuing education and training needs of the healthcare community.  The Company distributes numerous hours of continuing education and training content to doctors, nurses, allied health professionals, and other healthcare workers through its network of distribution partners.

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc. develops and markets clinical software. The Company's products include electronic health records, electronic prescribing, revenue cycle management, practice management, document management, medication services, hospital care management, emergency department information systems and homecare automation.

Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX US)

EMIS Group Plc is a healthcare information technology company. The Company computerizes patients' medical records and allows primary, secondary and community healthcare practitioners to view and contribute to a patient's core medical record.

Craneware plc engages in the development, licensing, and ongoing support of computer software for the United States healthcare industry. The company offers access management and strategic pricing products comprising InSight Medical Necessity, which provides medical necessity validation and advance beneficiary notice creation; and Patient Charge Estimator software, which simplifies the process of providing patient bill estimates for inpatient and outpatient services. It also provides charge capture and pricing solutions include Chargemaster Toolkit that automates chargemaster management processes for capturing optimal legitimate reimbursement for hospitals; Physician Revenue Toolkit, a software for managing physician group charges, codes, RVUs, fee schedules, and related information; Pricing Analyzer software that simplifies the price modeling process; Reference Plus, a platform for hospitals to perform chargemaster analysis; Pharmacy ChargeLink, which improves charge capture, pricing, and cost management; and Supplies ChargeLink that optimize reimbursement for codable supplies by identifying missing or invalid charges, as well as offers supporting modules. In addition, the company offers coding integrity solutions consisting of Bill Analyzer, which automates claim and coding reviews to identify missed charges, billing errors, and categorize areas of risk. Further, it provides revenue recovery and retention solutions, including InSight Audit, a Web-based audit management tool to manage claim audits and workflow from one central location; InSight Payment Variance Analyzer, which identifies, tracks, and helps eliminate revenue lost in the form of underpaid claims; and InSight Denials that analyses, tracks, trends, and reports on denial data. Additionally, the company offers companion implementation and consulting services. Craneware plc was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.

Simulations Plus, Inc. develops drug discovery and development simulation software, which is licensed to and used in the conduct of drug research for pharmaceutical companies worldwide.  The Company's other businesses are based on its proprietary software technologies and provide support for the emerging pharmaceutical enterprise.

M3, Inc. supplies medical information services for doctors through the Internet. The Company also supports marketing of pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers.

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M3 Inc (2413 JP)

JD Health Pre-IPO: Poised to Benefit from Structural Changes in Healthcare in China and the Pandemic

JD Health, the largest online retail pharmacy and healthcare platform has filed for an IPO on the HKEX to raise about US$3bn. In this insight, we...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3 Inc: Intelligent Adaption to Covid-19 Should Sustain Medtech Earnings Growth Even Post-Pandemic

M3 Inc (2413 JP) provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Cardinal Res., Japan Retail Fund, HSBC, Opticomm, Tiffany/LVMH

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

TOPIX Inclusion (6095 JP): MedPeer Inc

Medpeer Inc (6095 JP)

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD Health Pre-IPO: Poised to Benefit from Structural Changes in Healthcare in China and the Pandemic

JD Health, the largest online retail pharmacy and healthcare platform has filed for an IPO on the HKEX to raise about US$3bn. In this insight, we...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3 Inc: Intelligent Adaption to Covid-19 Should Sustain Medtech Earnings Growth Even Post-Pandemic

M3 Inc (2413 JP) provides various medical-related services to physicians and healthcare professionals in Japan and overseas. The company operates...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

🇯🇵 Japan • Every Shareholder Left Behind - The Book Value Per Share Metric

EQUITY-DRIVEN - Japans

Campbell Gunn

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Cardinal Res., Japan Retail Fund, HSBC, Opticomm, Tiffany/LVMH

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

TOPIX Inclusion (6095 JP): MedPeer Inc

Medpeer Inc (6095 JP)

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA