IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zjld-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36734:1" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK)</a>, a baijiu company in China, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$400 million, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zjld-group-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99438" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on the sharpest revenue slowdown, lowest operating margin and FCF margin vs peers along with a deterioration in lead growth indicators.</li>
</ul>



ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK), a baijiu company in China, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$400 million, according to press reports.
In ZJLD Group IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on the sharpest revenue slowdown, lowest operating margin and FCF margin vs peers along with a deterioration in lead growth indicators.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zjld-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36734:1" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK)</a>, a baijiu company in China, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise upto US$400 million, according to press reports.</li>
<li>ZJLD is the fourth largest privately-owned baijiu company and ranked third among all baijiu companies with three or more aroma types, in terms of revenue in 2021.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on market share gains, competitive production capacity, premiumization, rising gross margin and inventory days in good shape vs peers.</li>
</ul>



ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK), a baijiu company in China, is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise upto US$400 million, according to press reports.
ZJLD is the fourth largest privately-owned baijiu company and ranked third among all baijiu companies with three or more aroma types, in terms of revenue in 2021.
The key elements of the bull case rest on market share gains, competitive production capacity, premiumization, rising gross margin and inventory days in good shape vs peers.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Industrials (inflows of $3,132 million), Information Technology (inflows of $2,247 million), Health Care (inflows of $1,021 million) led the inflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOE, Wuliangye, Nari, Wanhua, Luzhou Laojiao, CMB, Longi Green, Foxconn, Ping An, Hithink.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Industrials (inflows of $3,132 million), Information Technology (inflows of $2,247 million), Health Care (inflows of $1,021 million) led the inflows.
We highlight flows for BOE, Wuliangye, Nari, Wanhua, Luzhou Laojiao, CMB, Longi Green, Foxconn, Ping An, Hithink.


Northbound Flows Monthly (Mar): BOE, Wuliangye, Nari, Wanhua, Luzhou Laojiao

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zjld-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36734:1" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>ZJLD is a Chinese liquor company primarily producing baijiu. As per F&amp;S, the firm was the fourth largest privately-owned baijiu company in terms of FY21 sales.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the firm’s PHIP updates.</li>
</ul>



ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
ZJLD is a Chinese liquor company primarily producing baijiu. As per F&amp;S, the firm was the fourth largest privately-owned baijiu company in terms of FY21 sales.
In this note, we look at the firm’s PHIP updates.


ZJLD Group Pre-IPO PHIP Updates - Benefited from Higher ASPs, Although Inventory Build up a Concern

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 10th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,487.9 million, led by financials, materials, and offset by industrials, health care, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Tourism Group Duty Free, Kweichow Moutai, Byd, China Merchants Bank, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Longi Green Energy Technology, Tongwei, Luxshare Precision Industry.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 10th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,487.9 million, led by financials, materials, and offset by industrials, health care, utilities.
We highlight flows for China Tourism Group Duty Free, Kweichow Moutai, Byd, China Merchants Bank, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Longi Green Energy Technology, Tongwei, Luxshare Precision Industry.


Northbound Flows (Mar 10th): CTG, Moutai, Byd, CMB, Yili, Longi Green Energy, Tongwei, Luxshare

China

Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells spirits products worldwide. The Company also produces glass products, manages hotels, and invests in the real estate business.

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Luzhou Laojiao Co Ltd A (000568 CH)

ZJLD Group IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on the sharpest revenue slowdown, lowest operating margin and FCF margin vs peers along with a deterioration...

Arun George

ZJLD Group IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on market share gains, competitive production capacity, premiumization, rising gross margin and inventory...

Arun George

Northbound Flows Monthly (Mar): BOE, Wuliangye, Nari, Wanhua, Luzhou Laojiao

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for March and highlight flows for BOE, Wuliangye, Nari, Wanhua, Luzhou Laojiao, CMB, Longi Green, Foxconn,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ZJLD Group Pre-IPO PHIP Updates - Benefited from Higher ASPs, Although Inventory Build up a Concern

ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we look at the firm’s PHIP updates.

Clarence Chu

Northbound Flows (Mar 10th): CTG, Moutai, Byd, CMB, Yili, Longi Green Energy, Tongwei, Luxshare

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CTG, Moutai, Byd, CMB, Yili, Longi Green Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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