IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN)</a>, a pharmaceutical company, is seeking to raise up to Rs45 billion (US$550 million) in April, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mankind-pharma-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99882" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on worrying recent developments, FCF burn, rise in inventory days and a steady decline in RoCE.   </li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN), a pharmaceutical company, is seeking to raise up to Rs45 billion (US$550 million) in April, according to press reports.
In Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on worrying recent developments, FCF burn, rise in inventory days and a steady decline in RoCE.   


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN)</a>, a pharmaceutical company, is seeking to raise up to Rs45 billion (US$550 million) in April, according to press reports.</li>
<li>Mankind Pharma is India’s fourth-largest pharmaceutical company in terms of domestic sales and second-largest in terms of sales volume in FY22, according to IQVIA.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on a track record of growing brands and market share,  accelerating growth rates, and profitability with margins in a relatively tight range.</li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN), a pharmaceutical company, is seeking to raise up to Rs45 billion (US$550 million) in April, according to press reports.
Mankind Pharma is India’s fourth-largest pharmaceutical company in terms of domestic sales and second-largest in terms of sales volume in FY22, according to IQVIA.
The key elements of the bull case rest on a track record of growing brands and market share,  accelerating growth rates, and profitability with margins in a relatively tight range.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The US sales stood at $177 Mn (+11% YoY) and the growth was supported by flu season, and new launches such as gSuprep, gPerforomist, Pennsaid, and Brovana, among others.</li><li>The base business fell by a high single digit due to price erosion.</li><li>India Sales were muted at 3.3% YoY and have been impacted by the loss in Cidmus and the generalization of Sitagliptin.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US sales stood at $177 Mn (+11% YoY) and the growth was supported by flu season, and new launches such as gSuprep, gPerforomist, Pennsaid, and Brovana, among others.The base business fell by a high single digit due to price erosion.India Sales were muted at 3.3% YoY and have been impacted by the loss in Cidmus and the generalization of Sitagliptin.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

LUPIN Ltd - Margins Still Below Industry Levels

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a> is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company background and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma is looking to raise around US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
We have looked at the company background and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


Mankind Pharma Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

<ul><li>Lupin’s Q2FY23 results were above our expectations.</li><li>The company’s reported revenue growth of 1.3% YoY was on account of its superior performance in the US business (+31%QoQ) as well as in India (+6.2% QoQ).</li><li>The US revenue was reported at $159 Mn vs. our expectations of $ 150Mn driven by a continuous increase in Albuterol volume and improvement in the base business despite the high single-digit price erosion in the oral solids business.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Lupin’s Q2FY23 results were above our expectations.The company’s reported revenue growth of 1.3% YoY was on account of its superior performance in the US business (+31%QoQ) as well as in India (+6.2% QoQ).The US revenue was reported at $159 Mn vs. our expectations of $ 150Mn driven by a continuous increase in Albuterol volume and improvement in the base business despite the high single-digit price erosion in the oral solids business.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Lupin Ltd -Subdued Margins Due to Pricing Pressure and Input Costs

India

Lupin Limited manufactures bulk actives and formulations. The principal bulk actives manufactured by it include Rifampicin, Pyrazinamide, Ethambutol (anti-TB), Cephalosporins (anti-infectives) and cardiovasculars. The company also possesses competencies in phytomedicines, in which medicines are made out of plant and herbal resources supported by the discipline of modern medicine.

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Lupin Ltd (LPC IN)

Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on worrying recent developments, FCF burn, rise in inventory days and a steady decline in RoCE.

Arun George

Mankind Pharma IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on a track record of growing brands and market share, accelerating growth rates, and profitability with...

Arun George

LUPIN Ltd - Margins Still Below Industry Levels

The US sales stood at $177 Mn (+11% YoY) and the growth was supported by flu season, and new launches such as gSuprep, gPerforomist, Pennsaid, and...

Axis Direct

Mankind Pharma Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuations

Mankind Pharma is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Lupin Ltd -Subdued Margins Due to Pricing Pressure and Input Costs

Lupin’s Q2FY23 results were above our expectations. The company’s reported revenue growth of 1.3% YoY was on account of its superior performance in...

Axis Direct

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