IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a>, a Chinese EV manufacturer, will start its listing hearing for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO this week, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:79449" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on a slow ramp-up, lower revenue, high EBIT and FCF loss margin compared to peers at a similar stage of development.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (2007699D HK), a Chinese EV manufacturer, will start its listing hearing for a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO this week, according to press reports.
In Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. 
The key elements of the bear case rest on a slow ramp-up, lower revenue, high EBIT and FCF loss margin compared to peers at a similar stage of development.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28812:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto Inc. (LI US)</a> has announced an ATM offering to sell US$2.0 billion of ADS. The offering appears to be timed to take advantage of the share price rally.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>'s strong balance sheet and cash generation do not necessitate the need for the offering. The impending launch of the Li L9 underpins its prospects. </li>
<li>However, with the recent rally, the shares are at best fully valued at the last close. We prefer remaining on the sidelines for now. </li>
</ul>



Li Auto Inc. (LI US) has announced an ATM offering to sell US$2.0 billion of ADS. The offering appears to be timed to take advantage of the share price rally.

Li Auto (2015 HK)'s strong balance sheet and cash generation do not necessitate the need for the offering. The impending launch of the Li L9 underpins its prospects. 
However, with the recent rally, the shares are at best fully valued at the last close. We prefer remaining on the sidelines for now. 


SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Electric Vehicle Startup Lucid Motors, the poster child for the SPAC Boom in 2021, has seen its valuation plummet in recent months amidst a string of production &amp; quality control issues, in addition to other demand headwinds.</li><li>As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and reprices its vehicles.</li><li>Elon Musk had an ominous warning for EV startup Lucid Motors last week</li></ul>

Electric Vehicle Startup Lucid Motors, the poster child for the SPAC Boom in 2021, has seen its valuation plummet in recent months amidst a string of production &amp; quality control issues, in addition to other demand headwinds.As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and reprices its vehicles.Elon Musk had an ominous warning for EV startup Lucid Motors last week

<ul><li>SPACs have had another blockbuster year, with 190 deals being closed out</li><li>Many more have either signed definitive agreements or sitting on the sidelines patiently scouting for deals.</li><li>However, post-merger SPAC performance has been horrific with the average De-SPAC returning -17% and the Median having returns of -25%</li></ul>

SPACs have had another blockbuster year, with 190 deals being closed outMany more have either signed definitive agreements or sitting on the sidelines patiently scouting for deals.However, post-merger SPAC performance has been horrific with the average De-SPAC returning -17% and the Median having returns of -25%

These Were The Best Performing SPACs of the Year

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> at the annual December reconstitution. The estimated one-way trade is US$11.05bn.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions ranges from 0.25-2.22 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 1.4-3.38 days of ADV to sell.</li>
<li>There will be large inflows on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms (FB US)</a> and large outflows on Tesla, Apple, NVidia, Amazon and Google.</li>
</ul>


There are 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. The estimated one-way trade is US$11.05bn.
Impact on the inclusions ranges from 0.25-2.22 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 1.4-3.38 days of ADV to sell.
There will be large inflows on Meta Platforms (FB US) and large outflows on Tesla, Apple, NVidia, Amazon and Google.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Six Changes at the Annual Reconstitution

United States

Lucid Group Inc. operates as an automotive company. The Company manufactures luxury electric cars, as well as provides energy storage and original equipment solutions. Lucid Group serves customers in the United States and Canada.

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Lucid Group (LCID US)

Leapmotor IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on a slow ramp-up, lower revenue, high EBIT and FCF loss margin compared to peers at a similar stage of...

Arun George

Li Auto’s US$2 Billion ATM Offering

The offering appears to be timed to take advantage of the share price rally. The shares are at best fully valued at the last close. We prefer...

Arun George

Race to Survival

As the macroeconomic environment deteriorates further, some rivals claim that the company could go bankrupt unless it cuts back on spending and...

subSPAC

These Were The Best Performing SPACs of the Year

SPACs have had another blockbuster year, with 190 deals being closed out. Many more have either signed definitive agreements or sitting on the...

subSPAC

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: Six Changes at the Annual Reconstitution

There are 6 changes for the NASDAQ-100 index at the annual December reconstitution. Apart from the flows on the adds and deletes, there will be...

Brian Freitas

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