IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essential-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9645:1" rel="noopener">Essential Metals (ESS AU)</a> has entered a SID with a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> JV at A$0.50, a 44.9% premium to the undisturbed price (6 January).</li>
<li>The scheme is subject to shareholder and FIRB approval. The FIRB should approve a 49% Aussie-owned offeror for a project to be processed in Australia.</li>
<li>There is a possibility of a competing bid as the offer is far from a knockout bid and ESS lacks substantial shareholders. The scheme meeting is in April. </li>
</ul>



Essential Metals (ESS AU) has entered a SID with a Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)/IGO Ltd (IGO AU) JV at A$0.50, a 44.9% premium to the undisturbed price (6 January).
The scheme is subject to shareholder and FIRB approval. The FIRB should approve a 49% Aussie-owned offeror for a project to be processed in Australia.
There is a possibility of a competing bid as the offer is far from a knockout bid and ESS lacks substantial shareholders. The scheme meeting is in April. 


Essential Metals (ESS AU)’s Enters a SID at A$0.50 with a Tianqi/IGO JV

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>As expected, there are no adds or deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>There are free float and capping changes that will be implemented at the close on 16 December.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 4.26% and will result in a one-way trade of US$31.5m.</li>
</ul>


As expected, there are no adds or deletes for the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index at the December rebalance.
There are free float and capping changes that will be implemented at the close on 16 December.
One way turnover is estimated at 4.26% and will result in a one-way trade of US$31.5m.


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This past week the news was dominated by political midterm election results and a brewing crypto market implosion but also featured a late week rally after a surprising CPI inflation print which beat estimates on Thursday.</li><li>While pundits can posit various reasons for Thursday and Friday’s market rallies, there appears to be at least a few brewing catalysts that could carry positive momentum into 2023 which include 1) continued downside surprises in either CPI or PCE inflation data which would allow the Fed to back off its aggressive tightening campaign 2) steps leading to Chinese economy reopening reducing existing supply chain bottlenecks 3) steps leading to a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine and 4) significant improvement in EU energy security situation resulting in lower EU inflation.</li><li>In the near term, it appears as of this writing that political gridlock in Washington D.C. will be upon us for the next 2 years removing the worst case scenarios of any significant market-negative legislation (i.e. tax hikes, etc.) being passed.</li></ul>

This past week the news was dominated by political midterm election results and a brewing crypto market implosion but also featured a late week rally after a surprising CPI inflation print which beat estimates on Thursday.While pundits can posit various reasons for Thursday and Friday’s market rallies, there appears to be at least a few brewing catalysts that could carry positive momentum into 2023 which include 1) continued downside surprises in either CPI or PCE inflation data which would allow the Fed to back off its aggressive tightening campaign 2) steps leading to Chinese economy reopening reducing existing supply chain bottlenecks 3) steps leading to a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine and 4) significant improvement in EU energy security situation resulting in lower EU inflation.In the near term, it appears as of this writing that political gridlock in Washington D.C. will be upon us for the next 2 years removing the worst case scenarios of any significant market-negative legislation (i.e. tax hikes, etc.) being passed.

<ul><li>While market commentary and cable business media talking heads were focused on arguing about the definition of a recession and whether the US economy is currently in one this week, there were notable developments in the back half of the week that came from DC that have significant market implications moving forward. </li><li>The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released this past week are backwards looking and the labeling is simply used as signaling for political points. </li><li>First, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell delivered the expected 75bps of interest rate increase this past meeting, but his comments were interpreted by many that the period of significant outsized hikes of 75bps are now behind us and that lower hikes will soon follow for the remainder of the year.</li></ul>

While market commentary and cable business media talking heads were focused on arguing about the definition of a recession and whether the US economy is currently in one this week, there were notable developments in the back half of the week that came from DC that have significant market implications moving forward. The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released this past week are backwards looking and the labeling is simply used as signaling for political points. First, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell delivered the expected 75bps of interest rate increase this past meeting, but his comments were interpreted by many that the period of significant outsized hikes of 75bps are now behind us and that lower hikes will soon follow for the remainder of the year.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)</a> priced its H Share at HK$82.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$13,062 million (US$1.7 billion). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>The H Share listing (HK$82.00) and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/3300412/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E5%9B%9B%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E9%BD%8A%E8%B7%8C%E3%80%80%E5%A4%A9%E9%BD%8A%E9%8B%B0%E6%A5%AD9696%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E6%9A%AB%E8%9D%951100%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grey market price</a> (HK$76.50) imply an AH discount of 45% and 49%, respectively. This compares to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a>’s current 35.3% AH discount.</li>
<li>The relative valuation is attractive. At the H Share listing price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a>’s H Share trades at a -6% discount to the median peers’ CY2022 P/B multiple.</li>
</ul>



Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH) priced its H Share at HK$82.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$13,062 million (US$1.7 billion). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
The H Share listing (HK$82.00) and grey market price (HK$76.50) imply an AH discount of 45% and 49%, respectively. This compares to Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)’s current 35.3% AH discount.
The relative valuation is attractive. At the H Share listing price, Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)’s H Share trades at a -6% discount to the median peers’ CY2022 P/B multiple.


Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Trading Debut

United States

Livent Corporation produces and distributes lithium chemicals. The Company offers lithium chemicals for applications in batteries, agrochemicals, aerospace alloys, greases, pharmaceuticals, polymers, and various industrial applications.

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Livent (LTHM US)

Essential Metals (ESS AU)’s Enters a SID at A$0.50 with a Tianqi/IGO JV

FIRB approval is a risk. The offer is far from a knockout bid which raises the possibility of a competing bid. At the last close and for a May end...

Arun George

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

No adds/deletes for REMX in December. Free float and capping changes will be implemented at the close on 16 December resulting in one-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 11/14

This past week the news was dominated by political midterm election results and a brewing crypto market implosion but also featured a late week...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/1

The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Essential Metals (ESS AU)’s Enters a SID at A$0.50 with a Tianqi/IGO JV

FIRB approval is a risk. The offer is far from a knockout bid which raises the possibility of a competing bid. At the last close and for a May end...

Arun George

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

No adds/deletes for REMX in December. Free float and capping changes will be implemented at the close on 16 December resulting in one-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 11/14

This past week the news was dominated by political midterm election results and a brewing crypto market implosion but also featured a late week...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/1

The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Trading Debut

The H Share opened at 6.7% lower in the Futu grey market. The AH discount and relative valuation suggest that the H Share listing price remains...

Arun George

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes