Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> reached an agreement to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU/ALTM US)</a> for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>The proxy statement is now out, with a Scheme Meeting scheduled for 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.</li>
<li>Trading wide-ish at a gross spread of 11.9%, reflecting the timing to secure regulatory approvals - notably from China - as opposed the Offer Price being viewed as opportunistic.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th October, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reached an agreement to buy Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU/ALTM US) for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to undisturbed.
The proxy statement is now out, with a Scheme Meeting scheduled for 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.
Trading wide-ish at a gross spread of 11.9%, reflecting the timing to secure regulatory approvals - notably from China - as opposed the Offer Price being viewed as opportunistic.


Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Six new deals discussed this week, all Down Under: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec (PBP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2b-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16558:1" rel="noopener">A2B Australia (A2B AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whispir-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29125:1" rel="noopener">Whispir (WSP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Six new deals discussed this week, all Down Under: Adbri (ABC AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Probiotec (PBP AU), A2B Australia (A2B AU), and Whispir (WSP AU).
Key updates took place on: Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Lithium Power International (LPI AU), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

<ul>
<li>Yesterday during the day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> shareholders approved the Scheme and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a> shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.</li>
<li>NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.</li>
<li>But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday during the day, Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) shareholders approved the Scheme and Livent (LTHM US) shareholders approved the merger. The deal is done. Allkem last trades 21 Dec.
NEWCO starts trading 4 January in the US but the Arcadium Lithium CDIs start trading 22 Dec in Australia. S&amp;P/ASX announced they will replace Allkem in the ASX200.
But I have been asked for a breakdown of flows and timing again, so I have put it into a handy table which I hope makes it less confusing.


Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

<ul>
<li>The Allkem/Livent "merger of equals" discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-ake-au-lthm-us-merger-of-lithium-equals-has-index-surprises" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101879" rel="noopener">Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-enlarged-charging-unit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101914" rel="noopener">Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit</a> is on track.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230928/pdf/05vdp2j4k6sqn9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As of the end of last month</a>, all approvals are received or are expected to be received. The Scheme Booklet is expected next month. Deal is expected to close end-CY2023.</li>
<li>The deal STILL has interesting side issues with index. Even more interesting than Newcrest/Newmont. This is an update with more detail as we probably have 8-10 weeks left.</li>
</ul>


The Allkem/Livent "merger of equals" discussed in Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises and Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit is on track.

As of the end of last month, all approvals are received or are expected to be received. The Scheme Booklet is expected next month. Deal is expected to close end-CY2023.
The deal STILL has interesting side issues with index. Even more interesting than Newcrest/Newmont. This is an update with more detail as we probably have 8-10 weeks left.


Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update:  MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

United States

Livent Corporation produces and distributes lithium chemicals. The Company offers lithium chemicals for applications in batteries, agrochemicals, aerospace alloys, greases, pharmaceuticals, polymers, and various industrial applications.

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Livent (LTHM US)

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

This looks done. Trading at a 11.9%/20.5% gross/annualised return, assuming mid 2025 completion. That looks attractive. The key risk is one of...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Adbri, Link Admin, Azure Minerals, Lithium Power, JSR Corp

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Allkem+Livent=Arcadium : Expected Index Flows

The Allkem/Livent deal has now been approved by shareholders of both companies. Index providers have started to make announcements. There are LOTS...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update: MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

The Allkem/Livent Shareholder Meetings take place 19 Dec. If agreed, this deal gets done quickly. Then we have index fun. The price of lithium...

Travis Lundy

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