Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 24th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Commonw Bk Austr, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB, Pro Medicus.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 24th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Commonw Bk Austr, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB, Pro Medicus.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 24th): CommBank, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB, Pro Medicus

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 6 August, Canada's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25818:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp (SVM CN)</a> offered shareholders of Western Australian-based miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">OreCorp (ORR AU)</a> A$0.15 in cash and 0.0967 new Silvercorp shares, by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet was despatched on the 6 November with a Scheme Meeting on the 8 December. The IE viewed terms as fair. </li>
<li>Silvercorp has now <a href="https://orecorp.com.au/upload/documents/investor/asx/231122230923_231122SilvercorpandOreCorpagreetoincreasedSchemeConsiderationcurrent.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> the cash terms to $0.19/share from $0.15/share. All other terms remain unchanged. Tim Goyder (5.14%) is now supportive. Done and done. </li>
</ul>


On the 6 August, Canada's Silvercorp (SVM CN) offered shareholders of Western Australian-based miner OreCorp (ORR AU) A$0.15 in cash and 0.0967 new Silvercorp shares, by way of a Scheme.
The Scheme Booklet was despatched on the 6 November with a Scheme Meeting on the 8 December. The IE viewed terms as fair. 
Silvercorp has now bumped the cash terms to $0.19/share from $0.15/share. All other terms remain unchanged. Tim Goyder (5.14%) is now supportive. Done and done. 


OreCorp: Silvercorp Bumps. Goyder Now Supportive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livent-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27434:1" rel="noopener">Livent (LTHM US)</a>'s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector's fundamental outlook remains strong. </li>
<li>And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds. </li>
<li>African-Focused lithium play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlantic-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40322:1" rel="noopener">Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU)</a> announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder.  Shares spiked 43% on the news.</li>
</ul>



Livent (LTHM US)'s CEO recently said, regarding its merger with Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), that while falling lithium prices put pressure on marginal producers, the sector's fundamental outlook remains strong. 
And so, another week goes by, and another lithium Offer Down Under unfolds. 
African-Focused lithium play Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) announced this morning it has twice rejected Offers from South African-based Assore International, its major shareholder.  Shares spiked 43% on the news.


Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder's Offer. Again

<ul>
<li>The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.</li>
<li>Recco or Ascendant for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys (HOLI US)</a>? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12385:1" rel="noopener">Sankyo (6417 JP)</a> is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.</li>
</ul>


The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.
Recco or Ascendant for Hollysys (HOLI US)? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. 

Sankyo (6417 JP) is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

<ul>
<li>I tally 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shidax-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7754" rel="noopener">Shidax (4837 JP)</a>'s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmic-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15558:1" rel="noopener">CMIC (2309 JP)</a>'s low-balled Offers; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benesse-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12877" rel="noopener">Benesse (9783 JP)</a>'s MBO/EQT Offer; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20649:1" rel="noopener">IRC (1029 HK)</a>'s MBO MGO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cros</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">s Media (SXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> </li>
</ul>


I tally 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Shidax (4837 JP)'s and CMIC (2309 JP)'s low-balled Offers; Benesse (9783 JP)'s MBO/EQT Offer; and IRC (1029 HK)'s MBO MGO.
Key updates took place for: Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), EOFlow (294090 KS), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: CMIC, IRC, Allkem, Benesse, Southern Cross, EOFlow, Shidax

Australia

Liontown Resources Ltd. explores for and mines base metals.

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Liontown Resources (LTR AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 24th): CommBank, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB, Pro Medicus

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CommBank, Pilbara Minerals, Rio Tinto, Xero, NAB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

OreCorp: Silvercorp Bumps. Goyder Now Supportive

If small, cross-border arbs are your thing, look to short Silvercorp (where available) late in the US day, and buy OreCorp early in the AU day. Or...

David Blennerhassett

Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU) Knocks Back Major Shareholder's Offer. Again

If small, illiquid M&A plays are your thing, I'd probably be picking up shares here. I think Assore will bump. Or second-largest shareholder...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: CMIC, IRC, Allkem, Benesse, Southern Cross, EOFlow, Shidax

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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