India BFSI - Long-Short - Equity Research Analyst

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN)</a> reported 2Q24/ 1H24 results last week which were decent given the context: moderating VNB Margins amid changing product-mix and growth outlook positive for remaining year.</li>
<li>The strong growth at the HDFC Bank counter is the key positive, though expected, on back of the HDFC Bank-HDFC merger.</li>
<li>We value HDFC Life (HDFCL) at ~2.4x FY25e P/EV, implying a ~5% upside to current price. HDFCL is fairly valued in our view.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN) reported 2Q24/ 1H24 results last week which were decent given the context: moderating VNB Margins amid changing product-mix and growth outlook positive for remaining year.
The strong growth at the HDFC Bank counter is the key positive, though expected, on back of the HDFC Bank-HDFC merger.
We value HDFC Life (HDFCL) at ~2.4x FY25e P/EV, implying a ~5% upside to current price. HDFCL is fairly valued in our view.


HDFC Life: 2Q24 Result Update: In-Line on a High Base, HDFC Bank Distribution the Main Positive.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>An ad hoc <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The rebalances of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-emerging-markets-146edc02-f8a5-4ac5-968b-5f0f7c89e476" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32683:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-em-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32679:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdmtree-emerg-mkt-ex-st-ow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32798:1" rel="noopener">Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US)</a> will be implemented on 18 October.</li>
<li>There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a> and CSI 1000 Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


An ad hoc S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replacing United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU). 
The rebalances of Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US), Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US) and Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US) will be implemented on 18 October.
There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index trackers.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

SBI Life Insurance Co Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SBI Life leads the Private Life Insurers in India in terms of market share, thanks to exclusive access to Banca channel of the largest bank in the country.</li>
<li>SBI Life has been one of the best-performing life insurers in terms of growth as well as margin expansion among peers in recent years, which we expect to continue. </li>
<li>SBIL is our primary pick in the Indian Life Insurance space with an upside of ~24% and its relatively cheaper valuations offers a margin of safety to cover near-term risks.</li>
</ul>


SBI Life leads the Private Life Insurers in India in terms of market share, thanks to exclusive access to Banca channel of the largest bank in the country.
SBI Life has been one of the best-performing life insurers in terms of growth as well as margin expansion among peers in recent years, which we expect to continue. 
SBIL is our primary pick in the Indian Life Insurance space with an upside of ~24% and its relatively cheaper valuations offers a margin of safety to cover near-term risks.


SBI Life: Best Bet to Play the Indian Life Insurance Sector - Initiating Coverage.

<ul>
<li>Foreign shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has dropped to 59% and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:559:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)</a> premium to the local line has dropped to 7%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has underperformed its peers and the local indices on expectations of lower NIMs and higher NPAs.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> in December and March. Further passive buying will require foreign room to increase above 25% which will first require foreign investor selling.</li>
</ul>


Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 59% and the HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) premium to the local line has dropped to 7%.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has underperformed its peers and the local indices on expectations of lower NIMs and higher NPAs.
There will be passive buying in HDFC Bank in December and March. Further passive buying will require foreign room to increase above 25% which will first require foreign investor selling.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Indian Life Insurance Sector is a play on lucrative Indian demographics, under-penetration of life insurance and retirement savings across cohorts of the population.</li>
<li>The large firms<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-life-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25899:1" rel="noopener">SBI Life</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-standard-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26004:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Life</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">LIC IN</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-prudential-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23608:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Pru</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/max-financial-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2233:1" rel="noopener">MAXF IN</a> are ripe for long-term secular growth for decades to come as they dominate the market.
</li>
<li>This "Primer" sets the stage for the company-specific notes to follow. Here we discuss the sector level issues, key metrics and relative valuations. See attached PDF- Free access.
</li>
</ul>



Indian Life Insurance Sector is a play on lucrative Indian demographics, under-penetration of life insurance and retirement savings across cohorts of the population.
The large firmsSBI Life, HDFC Life , LIC IN , ICICI Pru, MAXF IN are ripe for long-term secular growth for decades to come as they dominate the market.

This "Primer" sets the stage for the company-specific notes to follow. Here we discuss the sector level issues, key metrics and relative valuations. See attached PDF- Free access.



Indian Life Insurance (And Savings) Sector Primer - Long-Term Potential and Strong Operating Margins

India

Life Insurance Corporation of India operates as an insurance company. The Company provides life, pension, health, and micro insurance products and services. Life Insurance serves customers in India.

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Life Insurance of India (LICI IN)

HDFC Life: 2Q24 Result Update: In-Line on a High Base, HDFC Bank Distribution the Main Positive.

HDFC Life: 2Q24 Result Update: In-Line on a High Base. The strong growth at the HDFC Bank counter is the key positive. HDFCL is fairly valued in...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SBI Life: Best Bet to Play the Indian Life Insurance Sector - Initiating Coverage.

SBI Life is the best bet in the Indian life insurance sector due to its strong market position, poised to take advantage of Indian demographics,...

Raj S, CA, CFA

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Increasing Foreign Room & Decreasing ADR Premium

Foreign investors have sold HDFCB post merger leading to foreign room crossing 20%. The ADR premium has dropped to 7% and could drop further. There...

Brian Freitas

Indian Life Insurance (And Savings) Sector Primer - Long-Term Potential and Strong Operating Margins

Indian Life Insurance companies - SBI Life, HDFC Life , LIC IN , ICICI Pru, MAXF IN - are ripe for long-term secular growth for decades to come as...

Raj S, CA, CFA

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