Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BEKE: New Home Sales still lukewarm in October and early November (/)</li>
<li>XPEV, LI, BYD, CATL: SK On and LGES cut staff amid US EV slowdowns, positive for Chinese EV &amp; battery</li>
<li>XPEV: Huawei AITO M5 rear-end accident took place on November 14 raises safety concerns(+)</li>
</ul>


BEKE: New Home Sales still lukewarm in October and early November (/)
XPEV, LI, BYD, CATL: SK On and LGES cut staff amid US EV slowdowns, positive for Chinese EV &amp; battery
XPEV: Huawei AITO M5 rear-end accident took place on November 14 raises safety concerns(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:  BEKE/XPEV/LI/BYD/CATL

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117508" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing operating losses and FCF burn.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.
In ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing operating losses and FCF burn.


<ul>
<li>ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)</li>
<li>XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)</li>
<li>981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT: Atour Group launches new version of Atour 4.0, higher price with better return(+)
XPEV/NIO/LI:  Huawei Chery Luxeed announce specs and pricing, impacting mostly high end sedans (-)
981.HK/ 1347.HK/ ACMR: China lithography supplier planning A-share listing (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR</a>, a premium EV brand by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.</li>
<li>Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR, a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Zeekr Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Remains Highly Dependent on Geely

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.</li>
<li>ZEEKR has launched three models - the luxury shooting brake coupe ZEEKR 001, the luxury pure electric MPV – ZEEKR 009 and the new luxury versatile SUV – ZEEKR X.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on bestselling premium BEVs, rapid vehicle sales growth, rising gross margin, debt-free balance sheet and a favourable cash conversion cycle.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.
ZEEKR has launched three models - the luxury shooting brake coupe ZEEKR 001, the luxury pure electric MPV – ZEEKR 009 and the new luxury versatile SUV – ZEEKR X.
The bull case rests on bestselling premium BEVs, rapid vehicle sales growth, rising gross margin, debt-free balance sheet and a favourable cash conversion cycle.


China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BEKE/XPEV/LI/BYD/CATL

New home sales remain tepid, while US EV slowdowns lead to staff cuts at SK On and LGES, potentially benefiting Chinese EV and battery companies....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing...

Arun George

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Zeekr Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Remains Highly Dependent on Geely

ZEEKR, a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive...

Sumeet Singh

ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on bestselling premium BEVs, rapid vehicle sales growth, rising gross margin, debt-free balance sheet and a favourable cash...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BEKE/XPEV/LI/BYD/CATL

​New home sales remain tepid, while US EV slowdowns lead to staff cuts at SK On and LGES, potentially benefiting Chinese EV and battery companies....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing...

Arun George

[Blue Lotus Daily] Xiaomi 1810.HK/XPEV/NIO/LI/1211.HK/ATAT/BEKE/LKNCY/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR

​Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Zeekr Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Remains Highly Dependent on Geely

ZEEKR, a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive...

Sumeet Singh

ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on bestselling premium BEVs, rapid vehicle sales growth, rising gross margin, debt-free balance sheet and a favourable cash...

Arun George

New home sales remain tepid, while US EV slowdowns lead to staff cuts at SK On and LGES, potentially benefiting Chinese EV and battery companies....

Atour Group releases Atour 4.0 with improved features. Huawei Chery Luxeed's specs and pricing announcement affects high-end sedans negatively....