Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.</li>
<li>If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.</li>
<li>There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 6 changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.
If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.
There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a>, a Chinese EV manufacturer, is pre-marketing a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:79449" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:79536" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-look-before-you-leap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:79904" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: Look Before You Leap</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Leapmotor's potential valuation range. </li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (2007699D HK), a Chinese EV manufacturer, is pre-marketing a US$1.5 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
We previously discussed the IPO in Leapmotor IPO: The Bull Case, Leapmotor IPO: The Bear Case and Leapmotor IPO: Look Before You Leap. 
In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at Leapmotor's potential valuation range. 


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Tianqi, Li Auto, Country Garden Services, Li Ning and outflows from Meituan, Kuaishou, HKEx, GWM, Anta. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Tianqi, Li Auto, Country Garden Services, Li Ning and outflows from Meituan, Kuaishou, HKEx, GWM, Anta. 


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (August): $1bn into Tencent

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.</li>
<li>As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we spoke about the company’s past performance,  PHIP updates and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.
In our previous note, we spoke about the company’s past performance,  PHIP updates and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


Leapmotor Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>’s shares declined by -8% on <a href="https://di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSForm2.aspx?fn=CS20220829E00231&amp;amp;sa2=ns&amp;amp;sid=2508&amp;amp;sd=30/08/2021&amp;amp;ed=30/08/2022&amp;amp;sa1=cl&amp;amp;scsd=30/08/2021&amp;amp;sced=30/08/2022&amp;amp;sc=01211&amp;amp;src=Main&amp;amp;lang=EN&amp;amp;tk=ds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disclosure</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> trimmed its stake from 20.04% to 19.92% of outstanding H Shares. </li>
<li>Berkshire will likely follow its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a> playbook and materially sell down over the next few months. Buffet stated that the PetroChina exit was “a decision based on valuation.”</li>
<li>Berkshire will apply the same investment discipline to the BYD stake. While the shares are trading at a discount to historical multiples, the Berkshire stake is an overhang.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK)’s shares declined by -8% on disclosure that Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) trimmed its stake from 20.04% to 19.92% of outstanding H Shares. 
Berkshire will likely follow its PetroChina (857 HK) playbook and materially sell down over the next few months. Buffet stated that the PetroChina exit was “a decision based on valuation.”
Berkshire will apply the same investment discipline to the BYD stake. While the shares are trading at a discount to historical multiples, the Berkshire stake is an overhang.


Berkshire BYD’s Selldown Likely to Follow Its PetroChina Playbook

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (2015 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One

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Brian Freitas

Leapmotor IPO: Valuation First-Look

Leapmotor recently disclosed that it delivered 12,525 units in August. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly (August): $1bn into Tencent

We analyzed August Southbound inflow data and highlight stocks including Tencent, Tianqi, Li Auto, Country Garden Services, Li Ning, Meituan,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Leapmotor Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Berkshire BYD’s Selldown Likely to Follow Its PetroChina Playbook

Berkshire will likely follow its PetroChina playbook and materially sell down over the next few months. While the valuation is undemanding, the...

Arun George

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