Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> overtook <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> as the largest EV maker by deliveries in December 2023.</li>
<li>Tesla is suspending work at its Berlin factory temporarily due to the tension in the Red Sea, while BYD’s supply chain is all in China.</li>
<li>BYD is trading at deep discount to Tesla on PEG, PER, and PBR.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) overtook Tesla Motors (TSLA US) as the largest EV maker by deliveries in December 2023.
Tesla is suspending work at its Berlin factory temporarily due to the tension in the Red Sea, while BYD’s supply chain is all in China.
BYD is trading at deep discount to Tesla on PEG, PER, and PBR.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We summarize the Dec 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Nov 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Dec retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>Discounts at dealers for most brands continued to widen MoM in Dec 2023, in line with our prior expectation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Dec 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Nov 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Dec retail sales volume data have not been released yet.Discounts at dealers for most brands continued to widen MoM in Dec 2023, in line with our prior expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector: 2023 Ended with More than Half Brands’ Discounts Reaching All-Time Highs

<ul><li>We summarize the Dec 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the total new orders and other metrics could rise more than these figures, as most players have reaccelerated their store expansion.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Dec 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the total new orders and other metrics could rise more than these figures, as most players have reaccelerated their store expansion.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector: 2023 Ended with Rising NEV Leading Indicators

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 is the worst year for our "Buy the Worst" strategy as it returned -34.5% YTD, underperforming the HSI by 20.7pp. The two property names are the key drags.</li>
<li>Despite a poor 2023, the strategy has still outperformed the HSI by 17.9pp for 2018-2023. It remains significantly better than buying the winners in the current year.</li>
<li>For 2024, our strategy is to switch to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


2023 is the worst year for our "Buy the Worst" strategy as it returned -34.5% YTD, underperforming the HSI by 20.7pp. The two property names are the key drags.
Despite a poor 2023, the strategy has still outperformed the HSI by 17.9pp for 2018-2023. It remains significantly better than buying the winners in the current year.
For 2024, our strategy is to switch to Li Ning (2331 HK), Country Garden Services (6098 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning continue through 2023.</li>
<li>BYD Company most widely held but stabilizing; Li Auto sees increased buying. Sector 7th most owned, underweight by -0.85%.</li>
<li>Rising Allocations, Low Historical Positioning and Net Underweight Suggest Potential Continued Demand for Auto Stocks</li>
</ul>


Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning continue through 2023.
BYD Company most widely held but stabilizing; Li Auto sees increased buying. Sector 7th most owned, underweight by -0.85%.
Rising Allocations, Low Historical Positioning and Net Underweight Suggest Potential Continued Demand for Auto Stocks


Asian Autos: Increasing Exposure Reflects Rising Market Confidence

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (2015 HK)

BYD Vs Tesla: Part Deux

BYD surpasses Tesla as top EV maker in Dec 2023; Tesla suspends work in Berlin due to Red Sea tension; BYD trades at a deep discount to Tesla on...

Henry Soediarko

China Auto Sector: 2023 Ended with More than Half Brands’ Discounts Reaching All-Time Highs

Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Nov 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Dec...

CMB International

China Auto Sector: 2023 Ended with Rising NEV Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Autos: Increasing Exposure Reflects Rising Market Confidence

Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning from active funds continue through 2023.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

BYD Vs Tesla: Part Deux

​BYD surpasses Tesla as top EV maker in Dec 2023; Tesla suspends work in Berlin due to Red Sea tension; BYD trades at a deep discount to Tesla on...

Henry Soediarko

China Auto Sector: 2023 Ended with More than Half Brands’ Discounts Reaching All-Time Highs

Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Nov 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Dec...

CMB International

China Auto Sector: 2023 Ended with Rising NEV Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

​2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Autos: Increasing Exposure Reflects Rising Market Confidence

Improved sentiment in Asia Ex-Japan Autos sector as sustained increases in positioning from active funds continue through 2023.

Steven Holden

BYD surpasses Tesla as top EV maker in Dec 2023; Tesla suspends work in Berlin due to Red Sea tension; BYD trades at a deep discount to Tesla on...

2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...