Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Asia-Based leading personal finance aggregation and comparison platform MoneyHero has filed to go public in the US by merging with Bridgetown Holdings and raise proceeds of up to US$154m.</li>
<li>This would give MoneyHero a pre-money enterprise value of US$200m and an equity value of US$198m with post-money EV of US$342m assuming no redemption by Bridgetown’s public shareholders.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moneyhero-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39828:1" rel="noopener">MoneyHero Global (1534965D HK)</a>  plans to use proceeds from the deal to further accelerate growth and capture market opportunity in the region.</li>
</ul>


Asia-Based leading personal finance aggregation and comparison platform MoneyHero has filed to go public in the US by merging with Bridgetown Holdings and raise proceeds of up to US$154m.
This would give MoneyHero a pre-money enterprise value of US$200m and an equity value of US$198m with post-money EV of US$342m assuming no redemption by Bridgetown’s public shareholders.

MoneyHero Global (1534965D HK)  plans to use proceeds from the deal to further accelerate growth and capture market opportunity in the region.


MoneyHero SPAC Listing: Thoughts on Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upstart-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29727:1" rel="noopener">Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US)</a> is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. </li>
<li>Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. </li>
<li>While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. </li>
</ul>



Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST US) is both a consumer Internet brand as well an online loan origination platform. 
Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The healthy 2022 outlook underscores the long-term potential. 
While the ongoing market volatility is a near-term risk, the tech sell-off presents an opportunity to gain exposure to a good story at an attractive valuation. 


Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>We believe that Upstart's share price has been excessively oversold since October 2021. Since its highs in October 2021, Upstart's share price has declined significantly by nearly 72%.</li>
<li>The combination of buying back shares, more attractive valuations, and a much stronger sales growth than its peers is likely to result in Upstart outperforming the market this year.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Upstart is implied market cap of $13.8 billion and target price of $165 per share, which is 47% higher than current share price.</li>
</ul>


We believe that Upstart's share price has been excessively oversold since October 2021. Since its highs in October 2021, Upstart's share price has declined significantly by nearly 72%.
The combination of buying back shares, more attractive valuations, and a much stronger sales growth than its peers is likely to result in Upstart outperforming the market this year.
Our base case valuation of Upstart is implied market cap of $13.8 billion and target price of $165 per share, which is 47% higher than current share price.


Upstart Holdings: Focus on the Share Buyback & Outstanding Growth of AI Driven Lending Platform

Upstart Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Our base case valuation of Upstart Holdings is EV of $3,153 million, implied market cap of $3,236 million, and implied price of $35.8 per share, which would be 63% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $22. Given the attractive upside, we have a positive view of the Upstart IPO. Our base case valuation uses our estimated sales of $321 million in 2021 and a 9.8x EV/S multiple. The 9.8x EV/S multiple was derived from the average of the comps' 2021 EV/Sales average and median multiples. </p><p>Upstart's core business uses the cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform and aims to provide lower interest rates, higher approval rates, and a smoother digital experience. Since the company's inception, its bank partners have originated more than 0.62 million personal loans that have generated over 9 million repayments. As of the end of September 2020, about 70% of the Upstart-powered loans were entirely automated. </p>

Our base case valuation of Upstart Holdings is EV of $3,153 million, implied market cap of $3,236 million, and implied price of $35.8 per share, which would be 63% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $22. Given the attractive upside, we have a positive view of the Upstart IPO. Our base case valuation uses our estimated sales of $321 million in 2021 and a 9.8x EV/S multiple. The 9.8x EV/S multiple was derived from the average of the comps' 2021 EV/Sales average and median multiples. Upstart's core business uses the cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform and aims to provide lower interest rates, higher approval rates, and a smoother digital experience. Since the company's inception, its bank partners have originated more than 0.62 million personal loans that have generated over 9 million repayments. As of the end of September 2020, about 70% of the Upstart-powered loans were entirely automated. 

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29690:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holdings (LU US)</a> is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lufax-ipo-initiation-lost-in-transition" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.</p></div></div></div>

Lufax Holdings (LU US) is a leading personal financial services platform in China with a focus on retail borrowing and wealth management. Lufax has launched its IPO at a price range of $11.50-13.50 per ADS to raise net proceeds of $2,109 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Lufax will command a market cap of $30.5 billion which is around 20% lower than the 2018 Series C round valuation of $39 billion. In our initiation note, we stated that while Lufax has several attractive attributes, it is a business in transition which magnifies the risk profile. Overall, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

United States

LendingTree, Inc. operates a lending business and real estate business. The Company originates, processes, approves and funds various types of residential real estate loans and offers residential mortgage loan settlement services. LendingTree also offers access to home equity loans and lines of credit, personal loans, business loans, and auto loans.

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Lendingtree Inc (TREE US)

MoneyHero SPAC Listing: Thoughts on Valuation

Asian personal finance aggregation and comparison platform MoneyHero has filed to go public in the US by merging with Bridgetown Holdings....

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Upstart IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Upstart Holdings is implied market cap of $3,236 million and implied price of $35.8 per share, which would be 63% higher...

Douglas Kim

Lufax IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

Arun George

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MoneyHero SPAC Listing: Thoughts on Valuation

Asian personal finance aggregation and comparison platform MoneyHero has filed to go public in the US by merging with Bridgetown Holdings....

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Upstart Holdings: Fast-Growing, Profitable, Cash Generative with Share Buybacks

Upstart is a rare fintech that has established credibility by delivering high growth with profits and cash generation. The tech sell-off is an...

Arun George

Upstart Holdings: Focus on the Share Buyback & Outstanding Growth of AI Driven Lending Platform

The combination of buying back shares, more attractive valuations, and a much stronger sales growth than its peers is likely to result in Upstart...

Douglas Kim

Upstart IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Upstart Holdings is implied market cap of $3,236 million and implied price of $35.8 per share, which would be 63% higher...

Douglas Kim

Lufax IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would be inclined to give the IPO a pass.

Arun George