IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). </li>
<li>The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.</li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. </li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from KDDI Corp (9433 JP) at JPY10,360 per share, an 18.8% premium to the undisturbed (5 February). 
The pre-conditions relate to regulatory approvals in Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU. The offer is expected to start in April, suggesting no significant issues, particularly with SAMR approval.
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate, achievable as the offer represents an all-time high. 


Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The almost viral popularity of Familymart’s line of basic clothing items continues to grow and shows the real potential for convenience stores to diversify and adapt. </li>
<li>Backed by Itochu, Familymart has expanded the product range and added new, limited edition items and brand collaborations, creating a success story that Seven Eleven may find hard to emulate.</li>
<li>Lawson, however, is controlled by Mitsubishi Corp which happens to have a clothing production arm that was behind the early success of Uniqlo and Adastria.</li>
</ul>


The almost viral popularity of Familymart’s line of basic clothing items continues to grow and shows the real potential for convenience stores to diversify and adapt. 
Backed by Itochu, Familymart has expanded the product range and added new, limited edition items and brand collaborations, creating a success story that Seven Eleven may find hard to emulate.
Lawson, however, is controlled by Mitsubishi Corp which happens to have a clothing production arm that was behind the early success of Uniqlo and Adastria.


Convenience Wear: Familymart Competes with Uniqlo in Basics

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Seijo Ishii is Japan’s leading premium supermarket chain with some 200 stores and is being prepped for an IPO by its owner, Lawson. </li>
<li>After strong growth during Covid, sales have now flattened and the company’s large import business has suffered from higher costs due to the weak Yen and global crises.</li>
<li>To maintain its market position, it is reducing imports of packaged goods and increasing volumes of imported, high-end raw materials – and then manufacturing products itself.</li>
</ul>


Seijo Ishii is Japan’s leading premium supermarket chain with some 200 stores and is being prepped for an IPO by its owner, Lawson. 
After strong growth during Covid, sales have now flattened and the company’s large import business has suffered from higher costs due to the weak Yen and global crises.
To maintain its market position, it is reducing imports of packaged goods and increasing volumes of imported, high-end raw materials – and then manufacturing products itself.


Lawson: Seijo Ishii Producing at Home to Beat Inflation and Weak Yen

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> yesterday announced earnings, forecast for FY23, higher dividend guidance, and a buyback. The headline number is 6% of shares and ¥300bn (which is nearer 4% now).</li>
<li>¥200bn of that ¥300bn is actually FY2022 "Additional Return" tacked onto a ¥100bn buyback for this year (FY23).  </li>
<li>As is often the case, <strong>Shareholder Structure Matters</strong>. Because Berkshire Hathaway owns a large chunk of stock (7.4% according to interviews), that carves out a fair chunk not for sale.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) yesterday announced earnings, forecast for FY23, higher dividend guidance, and a buyback. The headline number is 6% of shares and ¥300bn (which is nearer 4% now).
¥200bn of that ¥300bn is actually FY2022 "Additional Return" tacked onto a ¥100bn buyback for this year (FY23).  
As is often the case, Shareholder Structure Matters. Because Berkshire Hathaway owns a large chunk of stock (7.4% according to interviews), that carves out a fair chunk not for sale.


MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

Japan

LAWSON, INC. operates a chain of convenience stores in Japan. The Company sells a variety of products including fast food, beverages, snacks, magazines, newspapers, and sundry goods.

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Lawson Inc (2651 JP)

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

The offer is expected to start in April. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate,...

Arun George

Convenience Wear: Familymart Competes with Uniqlo in Basics

Familymart is successfully diversifying through clothing, a hit line that Seven Eleven may struggle to replicate. Lawson, backed by Mitsubishi...

Michael Causton

Lawson: Seijo Ishii Producing at Home to Beat Inflation and Weak Yen

Japan's leading premium supermarket chain, Seijo Ishii, is preparing for an IPO. To stay competitive, the company is reducing imports while...

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

MitCorp announced good earnings, a lower FY23 forecast (expected as commodity-related over-profitability falls back), and a large buyback. It is...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lawson (2651 JP): KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY10,360

The offer is expected to start in April. Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 30.2% minority acceptance rate,...

Arun George

Convenience Wear: Familymart Competes with Uniqlo in Basics

Familymart is successfully diversifying through clothing, a hit line that Seven Eleven may struggle to replicate. Lawson, backed by Mitsubishi...

Michael Causton

Lawson: Seijo Ishii Producing at Home to Beat Inflation and Weak Yen

​Japan's leading premium supermarket chain, Seijo Ishii, is preparing for an IPO. To stay competitive, the company is reducing imports while...

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

MitCorp (8058 JP) Earnings and Buyback - Shareholder Structure Matters

MitCorp announced good earnings, a lower FY23 forecast (expected as commodity-related over-profitability falls back), and a large buyback. It is...

Travis Lundy

Japan's leading premium supermarket chain, Seijo Ishii, is preparing for an IPO. To stay competitive, the company is reducing imports while...