Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in the sector as well as highlighting key winners and losers by sales growth and profit. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-retail-highlights-2018-19-sector-by-sector-and-winners-in-each-sector" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In an accompanying Insight, we provide snapshot reviews of each sector to give investors quick guides to seach retail sector's strengths and weaknesses.</a>
Leading retailers grew sales and share last year and made more money too. Although savings rates rose to their highest level ever in 2018, this also meant that a lot of households had money stored up, providing better retailers and brands with an opportunity to convince them to spend some of it.
Many formats and sectors had a good year including convenience stores, discount chains, drugstores, speciality chains such as in fashion and even consumer electronics (at least for now), but some also contracted, notably GMS chains and department stores.
Retailing also became more profitable last year, up 6% on average for the top 250 retailers, and is expected to grow profits further on the back of new technologies wrought by the pressures of the labour shortage. However, profit growth is slowing as competition increases across different formats.

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in the sector as well as highlighting key winners and losers by sales growth and profit. In an accompanying Insight, we provide snapshot reviews of each sector to give investors quick guides to seach retail sector's strengths and weaknesses.
Leading retailers grew sales and share last year and made more money too. Although savings rates rose to their highest level ever in 2018, this also meant that a lot of households had money stored up, providing better retailers and brands with an opportunity to convince them to spend some of it.
Many formats and sectors had a good year including convenience stores, discount chains, drugstores, speciality chains such as in fashion and even consumer electronics (at least for now), but some also contracted, notably GMS chains and department stores.
Retailing also became more profitable last year, up 6% on average for the top 250 retailers, and is expected to grow profits further on the back of new technologies wrought by the pressures of the labour shortage. However, profit growth is slowing as competition increases across different formats.

Japan Retail Review and Ranking 2018-19: Profit Growth Slowing as Competition Increases

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-retail-review-and-ranking-2018-19-profit-growth-slowing-as-competition-increases" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.</a>

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yahoo-japan-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Yahoo Japan (4689 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/askul-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16807:1" rel="noopener">Askul Corp (2678 JP)</a> have begun an unusual (for Japan) public display of disaffection in the last month. The cause is Yahoo's desire to grab Lohaco, a division of Askul that Yahoo helped create, and Askul's unwillingness to let it go. Meanwhile, plenty of other companies would like to buy Lohaco and or Askul in its entirety in order to boost their own e-commerce businesses. This could be the start of a messy battle for control but as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/askul-vs-yahoo-japan-gloves-off" target="_blank" rel="noopener">makes clear</a> there seems to be mostly upside for investors.Yahoo claims that Askul’s performance has been sub-optimal and that Lohaco in particular would do better under Yahoo control. However, Askul, and Lohaco, in particular, were devastated by a warehouse fire in 2017 which took two years to recover from. Recent results show encouraging signs of growth of both sales and operating income.In addition, Askul’s plans for Lohaco going forward look coherent, realistic and promising.Yahoo implicitly claims that Lohaco is an entirely separate entity from Askul. This is harder to disprove but in my view, much of Lohaco’s initial success and the very high trust levels it has with consumers now come from Askul’s reputation in the market. In addition, many of the recent improvements at Lohaco and the upcoming plans rely on high levels of expertise in logistics and direct marketing which Askul has. In other words, trying to separate Lohaco from Askul is not as simple as just transferring ownership.While Askul’s BtoB business doesn’t hold much promise long-term, Lohaco is the potential jewel in its crown, partly because of the mall’s fulfilment service levels and partly because of distinctive merchandise ranges from private label and manufacturer collaborations (150 and counting).However, the real value in Lohaco in my view is its potential to become a platform for online grocery sales. Food e-commerce is about to boom and all the big players are already lined up and building share and many would like to get ahold of Lohaco to facilitate this expansion. They are led by Amazon which not only has Amazon Fresh but has just tied up with Japan’s biggest single supermarket chain, Life Corp. Meanwhile, Rakuten has a joint venture with Walmart (Seiyu) who has just announced a renewed enthusiasm for Japan (even if only to sell later but that buyer could be Rakuten). And the big CVS, Seven-Eleven and Lawson also have nascent online food businesses.Yahoo has nothing in this area at all but as the third big mall operator desperately needs a partner to make this happen. Building its own online food business would be years of work because doing food e-commerce is a lot harder than operating a generic online mall.Lohaco, however, is already tied with a big partner: it is working with Seven &amp; I on the fresh food section of its online mall called IY Fresh. This partnership has been going since 2017 and by all accounts, the CEOs of Askul and Seven &amp; I have become fast friends since signing off on the deal. Seven &amp; I stated in its new annual report that it sees a strong future for IY Fresh and its e-commerce operations.In my view, Seven &amp; I wants Lohaco for itself to bolster its existing online business and plans for the Net Convenience App that it launched last year.This would be a major set back for Yahoo and probably why Yahoo wants to take control now – and perhaps not coincidentally there were reports last year of a joint venture between Yahoo, Softbank and Seven &amp; I’s major rival, Aeon, in online food, again possibly using Lohaco as the base.As to who finally ends up successfully tying with Askul/Lohaco or just Lohaco remains to be seen but Seven &amp; I would make the most strategic sense and is probably Askul’s favoured partner given the existing relationship.As always for the technical and financial implications of this trade, I defer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> who has <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/askul-vs-yahoo-japan-gloves-off" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a full analysis and summary of the likely scenarios here</a>. My review below lays out the operational and strategic issues, the potential growth for Askul/Lohaco and the reasons why Lohaco has become such an alluring bride.

Yahoo Japan (4689 JP) and Askul Corp (2678 JP) have begun an unusual (for Japan) public display of disaffection in the last month. The cause is Yahoo's desire to grab Lohaco, a division of Askul that Yahoo helped create, and Askul's unwillingness to let it go. Meanwhile, plenty of other companies would like to buy Lohaco and or Askul in its entirety in order to boost their own e-commerce businesses. This could be the start of a messy battle for control but as Travis Lundy makes clear there seems to be mostly upside for investors.Yahoo claims that Askul’s performance has been sub-optimal and that Lohaco in particular would do better under Yahoo control. However, Askul, and Lohaco, in particular, were devastated by a warehouse fire in 2017 which took two years to recover from. Recent results show encouraging signs of growth of both sales and operating income.In addition, Askul’s plans for Lohaco going forward look coherent, realistic and promising.Yahoo implicitly claims that Lohaco is an entirely separate entity from Askul. This is harder to disprove but in my view, much of Lohaco’s initial success and the very high trust levels it has with consumers now come from Askul’s reputation in the market. In addition, many of the recent improvements at Lohaco and the upcoming plans rely on high levels of expertise in logistics and direct marketing which Askul has. In other words, trying to separate Lohaco from Askul is not as simple as just transferring ownership.While Askul’s BtoB business doesn’t hold much promise long-term, Lohaco is the potential jewel in its crown, partly because of the mall’s fulfilment service levels and partly because of distinctive merchandise ranges from private label and manufacturer collaborations (150 and counting).However, the real value in Lohaco in my view is its potential to become a platform for online grocery sales. Food e-commerce is about to boom and all the big players are already lined up and building share and many would like to get ahold of Lohaco to facilitate this expansion. They are led by Amazon which not only has Amazon Fresh but has just tied up with Japan’s biggest single supermarket chain, Life Corp. Meanwhile, Rakuten has a joint venture with Walmart (Seiyu) who has just announced a renewed enthusiasm for Japan (even if only to sell later but that buyer could be Rakuten). And the big CVS, Seven-Eleven and Lawson also have nascent online food businesses.Yahoo has nothing in this area at all but as the third big mall operator desperately needs a partner to make this happen. Building its own online food business would be years of work because doing food e-commerce is a lot harder than operating a generic online mall.Lohaco, however, is already tied with a big partner: it is working with Seven &amp; I on the fresh food section of its online mall called IY Fresh. This partnership has been going since 2017 and by all accounts, the CEOs of Askul and Seven &amp; I have become fast friends since signing off on the deal. Seven &amp; I stated in its new annual report that it sees a strong future for IY Fresh and its e-commerce operations.In my view, Seven &amp; I wants Lohaco for itself to bolster its existing online business and plans for the Net Convenience App that it launched last year.This would be a major set back for Yahoo and probably why Yahoo wants to take control now – and perhaps not coincidentally there were reports last year of a joint venture between Yahoo, Softbank and Seven &amp; I’s major rival, Aeon, in online food, again possibly using Lohaco as the base.As to who finally ends up successfully tying with Askul/Lohaco or just Lohaco remains to be seen but Seven &amp; I would make the most strategic sense and is probably Askul’s favoured partner given the existing relationship.As always for the technical and financial implications of this trade, I defer to Travis Lundy who has a full analysis and summary of the likely scenarios here. My review below lays out the operational and strategic issues, the potential growth for Askul/Lohaco and the reasons why Lohaco has become such an alluring bride.

Everyone Wants to Buy Askul’s Lohaco, Not Just Yahoo

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wal-mart-stores-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Wal Mart Stores (WMT US)</a> says it will relist its Japanese business soon, putting to rest – at least for now – widespread speculation that it was about to sell off its 330-store Japanese operation after 17 years of trying to turn the business around.Walmart may have tried to sell the business but with no one willing to pay the right price, Walmart has instead announced a new mid-term plan based on refreshed stores, expanded private brand lines and, much more intriguingly, further investment in its new joint business with Rakuten online – its first real chance to expand nationally.The Japanese online food market is about to boom and many of the key players are jockeying for position but if Rakuten and Walmart can gain real traction, the joint venture could be one of the leaders in this fast-expanding market. If the venture proves of less benefit to Walmart than hoped, Walmart will want to sell and it may be Rakuten that wants to buy.

Wal Mart Stores (WMT US) says it will relist its Japanese business soon, putting to rest – at least for now – widespread speculation that it was about to sell off its 330-store Japanese operation after 17 years of trying to turn the business around.Walmart may have tried to sell the business but with no one willing to pay the right price, Walmart has instead announced a new mid-term plan based on refreshed stores, expanded private brand lines and, much more intriguingly, further investment in its new joint business with Rakuten online – its first real chance to expand nationally.The Japanese online food market is about to boom and many of the key players are jockeying for position but if Rakuten and Walmart can gain real traction, the joint venture could be one of the leaders in this fast-expanding market. If the venture proves of less benefit to Walmart than hoped, Walmart will want to sell and it may be Rakuten that wants to buy.

Walmart Will Relist Japan Unit Soon and at Last Has Potential to Grow – but Only Online

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/001/original/2019-07-13_16-16-31.png?1563002212" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93001"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/005/original/2019-07-13_16-25-24.png?1563002742" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93005"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/020/original/2019-07-14_06-28-16.png?1563053334" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93020"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/024/original/2019-07-14_06-45-29.png?1563054338" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93024"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>VALUE TRADED RATIO - The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. <div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/025/original/2019-07-14_06-47-40.png?1563054585" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93025"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>TORAKU INDEX - Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  <div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/026/original/2019-07-14_06-54-51.png?1563054906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93026"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>VOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The Retail and Restaurant Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. REITs remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the Information Technology and Internet Sectors are the 'tema-du-jour' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are Metals, Banks, UtilitiesTransportation,  and Multi-Industry.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/028/original/2019-07-14_07-31-40.png?1563057109" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93028"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The Retail Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">, and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>. Electrical Equipment has suffered from weakness in component stocks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a> (-38% over one year), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata (6981 JP)</a> (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/murata-mfg-6981-jp-buy-on-decline-for-the-long-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30919" rel="noopener">(Buy on Decline for the Long Term</a>), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/komatsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1" rel="noopener">Komatsu (6301 JP)</a> have weighed on the Machinery Sector.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/031/original/2019-07-14_07-44-47.png?1563057897" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93031"></figure></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">OBIC (4684 JP)</a>, Other Commerical Products (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a>, and Commercial Services (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit 6098 JP).</a> We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-sumitomo-metal-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)</a>) <div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis (4927 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-house-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">Obic (4684 JP)</a>.</div>


Source: Japan Analytics
MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVALUE TRADED RATIO - The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. 
 Source: Japan AnalyticsTORAKU INDEX - Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The Retail and Restaurant Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. REITs remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the Information Technology and Internet Sectors are the 'tema-du-jour' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are Metals, Banks, UtilitiesTransportation,  and Multi-Industry.
 Source: Japan Analytics3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The Retail Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores Welcia (3141 JP) and Tsuruha (3391 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), and Lawson (2651 JP). Electrical Equipment has suffered from weakness in component stocks Alps Alpine (6770 JP) (-38% over one year), Murata (6981 JP) (see Scott Foster's (Buy on Decline for the Long Term), and Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), while SMC (6273 JP), Fanuc (6954 JP), and Komatsu (6301 JP) have weighed on the Machinery Sector.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsSECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (OBIC (4684 JP), Other Commerical Products (Hoya Corp (7741 JP), and Commercial Services (Recruit 6098 JP). We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)) In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on Welcia (3141 JP), Daiseki (9793 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), Pola Orbis (4927 JP), Sekisui House (1928 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP), and Obic (4684 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

Japan

LAWSON, INC. operates a chain of convenience stores in Japan. The Company sells a variety of products including fast food, beverages, snacks, magazines, newspapers, and sundry goods.

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Lawson Inc (2651 JP)

Japan Retail Review and Ranking 2018-19: Profit Growth Slowing as Competition Increases

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners...

Michael Causton

Everyone Wants to Buy Askul’s Lohaco, Not Just Yahoo

Yahoo Japan (4689 JP) and Askul Corp (2678 JP) have begun an unusual (for Japan) public display of disaffection in the last month. The cause is...

Michael Causton

Walmart Will Relist Japan Unit Soon and at Last Has Potential to Grow – but Only Online

Wal Mart Stores (WMT US) says it will relist its Japanese business soon, putting to rest – at least for now – widespread speculation that it was...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has...

Campbell Gunn

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