Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.</li>
<li>Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.
Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.


Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite strong ordering momentum, we are seeing emergence of headwinds to the Indian highways program</li><li>Substantial dilution of bid qualification has exposed the sector to low quality, inadequately funded developers taking large order inflow market share</li><li>This has the potential of de-railing the NH program, creation of sub quality infrastructure, time and cost overruns and eventually higher cost to completion and defaults</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite strong ordering momentum, we are seeing emergence of headwinds to the Indian highways programSubstantial dilution of bid qualification has exposed the sector to low quality, inadequately funded developers taking large order inflow market shareThis has the potential of de-railing the NH program, creation of sub quality infrastructure, time and cost overruns and eventually higher cost to completion and defaultsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>India’s long-awaited Capex cycle finally seems to be gathering momentum, after a hiatus of 10 years</li><li>While there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for multi-year growth</li><li>In this report, we have done a detailed bottom-up analysis of (a) 1,700+ government projects that are under implementation (explaining &gt;60% of total government Capex of FY22) and (b) Capex plans of top 400+ private sector companies to better understand the drivers and likely shape of the Capex demand curve</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India’s long-awaited Capex cycle finally seems to be gathering momentum, after a hiatus of 10 yearsWhile there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for multi-year growthIn this report, we have done a detailed bottom-up analysis of (a) 1,700+ government projects that are under implementation (explaining &gt;60% of total government Capex of FY22) and (b) Capex plans of top 400+ private sector companies to better understand the drivers and likely shape of the Capex demand curveContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy - Capex: On a Sustainable Upswing

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

<ul><li>Asian Paints: Asian Paints continues to deliver robust sales growth, at 54% YoY (three year CAGR: 19%; 7% above estimates)</li><li>Decorative business clocked 37/59% volume/value growth YoY in Q1FY23 (FY19-22 volume/value CAGR: 20/0% resp)</li><li>Adjacencies continue to perform well</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asian Paints: Asian Paints continues to deliver robust sales growth, at 54% YoY (three year CAGR: 19%; 7% above estimates)Decorative business clocked 37/59% volume/value growth YoY in Q1FY23 (FY19-22 volume/value CAGR: 20/0% resp)Adjacencies continue to perform wellContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Larsen & Toubro, Aether Industries...

India

GMR Infrastructure is an infrastructure company with interests in airports, power and roads. The Company is developing a greenfield international airport at Hyderabad, and is also operating, managing and developing the Delhi airport. Additionally, it is involved in development and operation of power plants and road projects in India.

Voltas Limited offers engineering solutions for a wide spectrum of industries in areas such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning, refrigeration, electro-mechanical projects, textile machinery, machine tools, mining and construction equipment, materials handling, water management, building management systems, indoor air quality and chemicals.

IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited is an infrastructure development and construction company in India with significant experience in the roads and highways sector.  The Company is also involved in the real estate development sector.

NBCC (India) Limited provides construction and engineering services. The Company constructs residential, commercial, and institutional buildings, as well as offers services, including project conceptualization, feasibility studies, construction drawings, detailed project reports, and project consulting services.

Kalpataru Power Transmission Limited manufactures transmission line towers for power distribution which are sold to The Power Grid Corporation of India and State Electricity Boards. The Company also exports its products to various countries and it also develops real estate.

NCC Ltd. is a construction company. The Group undertakes civil and structural infrastructure projects, real estate development and light engineering projects.

KEC International Limited is a power transmission company which is involved in the design, manufacture, supply and construction of turnkey projects of power transmission lines. The company also installs fiber optical cable and provides services for Satellite/GPRS surveys.

Engineers India Limited is a design and engineering company in the field of petroleum refineries, petrochemicals, oil and gas processing, offshore structures and platforms, fertilizers, metallurgy and power. EIL provides services such as design, engineering, procurement, construction management, commissioning assistance and project management.

Praj Industries Limited is an engineering firm that provides solutions for distillery and brewery wastewater treatment and utilization. The Company's fermentation systems include technology packages for multiple feedstock including cane molasses, cane juice and filtrate, starch based raw material like corn, sorghum, wheat, tapioca and tropical sugarbeet.

Techno Electric & Engineering Company Limited operates as a renewable energy company. The Company generates, transmits, and distributes wind power and electricity, as well as provides engineering and project management services. Techno Electric & Engineering serves customers in India.

Techno Electric & Engineering (TECHNOE IN)

China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges.

Quanta Services, Inc. provides specialized contracting services to electric utilities, telecommunication and cable television operators, and governmental entities.  The Company also installs transportation control and lighting systems and provides specialty electric power and communication services for industrial and commercial customers.  Quanta operates projects throughout North America.

China State Construction Engineering Corporation Ltd. is a state-owned enterprise. The Company engages in housing construction, international building contracting, property development and investment, and infrastructure construction.

EMCOR Group, Inc. provides mechanical and electrical construction and facilities services around the world.  The Company specializes in the design, installation, integration, and start-up of distribution systems for electrical power, lighting systems, low-voltage systems such as fire and security alarms, voice and data communication systems, ventilation systems, and plumbing and piping systems.

Ferrovial SA is an infrastructure operator and industrial company. The Company operates in multiple countries in a range of sectors including construction, airport, toll road, and municipal services.  Ferrovial SA also has a services division in which they provide facility management, infrastructure maintenance and upkeep, and energy and waste management services.

VINCI SA is a global player in concessions and construction with expertise in building, civil, hydraulic, and electrical engineering. The Company offers construction-related specialities and road materials production, as well as finance, management, operations and maintenance of public infrastructure such as motorways, airports, and road and rail infrastructures.

Bouygues SA offers construction services, develops real estate, offers cellular communications services, produces television programming and movies, and manages utilities.  The Company offers building, civil engineering, and oil and gas contracting services, develops residential, commercial, and office projects, produces and distributes water and electricity, and collects waste.

Power Construction Corporation of China, Ltd provides electric utility line construction services. The Company develops and constructs hydropower engineering, water works engineering, thermal power engineering, new energy engineering, and other projects. Power Construction China also operates property development.

China Railway Construction Corporation Limited provides transportation infrastructure construction services. The Company constructs railway, highway, urban track, and other infrastructure. China Railway Construction also provides real estate development and materials trading services.

China Railway Construction Cor (601186 CH)

WSP Global Inc. offers engineering services.  The Company offers professional services in the areas of construction, energy, the environment, mining, municipal infrastructure, project management, telecommunications, and transportation.

Larsen & Toubro Ltd manufactures engineering equipment, undertakes large scale engineering projects, and acts as the Indian representative for a number of overseas manufacturers of heavy machinery. The Company's products include bulldozers, road rollers, dairy machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical plants, switchgears, food processing machinery and feed milling plants.

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Larsen & Toubro (LT IN)

Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on $EEM. Specifically, the EEM has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If EEM has...

Vermilion Research

Infrastructure - Betting on Conservatism

Substantial dilution of bid qualification has exposed the sector to low quality, inadequately funded developers taking large order inflow market share

HDFC Securities

India Equity Strategy - Capex: On a Sustainable Upswing

While there were false starts in the last decade, we believe the recent post-COVID pick-up is looking sustainable and drivers are in place for...

HDFC Securities

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Larsen & Toubro, Aether Industries...

Asian Paints: Asian Paints continues to deliver robust sales growth, at 54% YoY (three year CAGR: 19%; 7% above estimates)

HDFC Securities

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