Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea Exchange is planning to change the criteria for rebalancing stocks in the KOSPI 200 index. </li>
<li>The purpose of this change is to prevent stocks that surge ahead of the actual KOSPI 200 inclusion but fall significantly after the inclusion announcement.</li>
<li>We think there is a 70-80%+ probability that POSCO DX and L&amp;F Co will be included in KOSPI 200 index in December 2023.</li>
</ul>


Korea Exchange is planning to change the criteria for rebalancing stocks in the KOSPI 200 index. 
The purpose of this change is to prevent stocks that surge ahead of the actual KOSPI 200 inclusion but fall significantly after the inclusion announcement.
We think there is a 70-80%+ probability that POSCO DX and L&amp;F Co will be included in KOSPI 200 index in December 2023.


KOSPI 200 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023 & Changes to the KOSPI 200 Rebalance Process

<ul>
<li>On 20 September, HLB Inc announced that it has hired Korea Investment &amp; Securities as an advisor for a potential switch from KOSDAQ to KOSPI listing. </li>
<li>In our view, there is a 80-90%+ probability of HLB switching its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI sometime in the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>If HLB finally decides to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI, it is likely that HLB will be included in KOSPI 200 index in 2024. </li>
</ul>


On 20 September, HLB Inc announced that it has hired Korea Investment &amp; Securities as an advisor for a potential switch from KOSDAQ to KOSPI listing. 
In our view, there is a 80-90%+ probability of HLB switching its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI sometime in the next 6-12 months.
If HLB finally decides to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI, it is likely that HLB will be included in KOSPI 200 index in 2024. 


HLB: Hires Korea Investment & Securities for a Potential Switch to a KOSPI Listing

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Over two-thirds of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be index changes even before the December rebalance if there are delistings and stocks migrate from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.</li>
<li>Momentum in Korea has been strong. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and there could be further outperformance.</li>
</ul>


Over two-thirds of the way through the review period, we see 14 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
There could be index changes even before the December rebalance if there are delistings and stocks migrate from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.
Momentum in Korea has been strong. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and there could be further outperformance.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Strong Momentum Leads to Outperformance

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>KB Asset Management has announced the release of an inverse ETF, containing the top 10 core stocks in the secondary battery sector.</li>
<li>Given the substantial fluctuations in SSF trading volume in Korea, the flow increase of this ETF might temporarily lead to an unusually high level of backwardation.</li>
<li>Also, we may observe a phenomenon known as 'wag-the-dog' as the flow of this inverse ETF could act as a triggering factor for a temporary spark.</li>
</ul>


KB Asset Management has announced the release of an inverse ETF, containing the top 10 core stocks in the secondary battery sector.
Given the substantial fluctuations in SSF trading volume in Korea, the flow increase of this ETF might temporarily lead to an unusually high level of backwardation.
Also, we may observe a phenomenon known as 'wag-the-dog' as the flow of this inverse ETF could act as a triggering factor for a temporary spark.


Korea's First Sector Inverse ETF: Discussing Flow Trading Impacts

<ul>
<li>HLB's process of selecting a lead underwriter for the KOSPI listing has been witnessed in Yeouido.</li>
<li>The price impact becomes most evident on the board approval date as the point at which this impact is most pronounced is substantially accelerated due to the market's learning effect.</li>
<li>There is a strong likelihood that HLB will have its board decision by mid-September, necessitating our preparation for a position setup targeting this timing.</li>
</ul>


HLB's process of selecting a lead underwriter for the KOSPI listing has been witnessed in Yeouido.
The price impact becomes most evident on the board approval date as the point at which this impact is most pronounced is substantially accelerated due to the market's learning effect.
There is a strong likelihood that HLB will have its board decision by mid-September, necessitating our preparation for a position setup targeting this timing.


Positioning for the Timing of HLB, the Latest Target in the KOSDAQ Exodus

South Korea

L&F Co., Ltd. develops and manufactures battery materials. The Company produces and sells cathode active materials, anode materials, electrolyte, separator, and other products. L&F markets its products throughout Korea.

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L&F (066970 KS)

KOSPI 200 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023 & Changes to the KOSPI 200 Rebalance Process

We believe there is a 70-80%+ probability that POSCO DX and L&F Co will be included in KOSPI 200 index in December 2023.

Douglas Kim

HLB: Hires Korea Investment & Securities for a Potential Switch to a KOSPI Listing

On 20 September, HLB Inc announced that it has hired Korea Investment & Securities as an advisor for a potential switch from KOSDAQ to KOSPI listing.

Douglas Kim

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Strong Momentum Leads to Outperformance

There could be 14 changes for the KOSDAQ150 in Dec. There could be changes even prior to Dec due to delistings/section transfers. Momentum in Korea...

Brian Freitas

Korea's First Sector Inverse ETF: Discussing Flow Trading Impacts

This post touches on the release of Korea's first sector inverse ETF containing the top 10 core secondary battery stocks and the resulting flow...

Sanghyun Park

Positioning for the Timing of HLB, the Latest Target in the KOSDAQ Exodus

This post explores why top KOSDAQ companies are hurrying to shift to KOSPI in the second half of this year and discusses the best timing for...

Sanghyun Park

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