Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. </li>
<li>Renewables and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> were the big net sells on the week.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 2.4bn of A-shares on decent average activity. 
Renewables and Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) were the big net sells on the week.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Jan 2024): Renewable Energy-Related Names Sold

Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> announced the preliminary result for FY23, with sales and net profit both up 17% yoy. </li>
<li>The overall weak consumer sentiment in China has not spared the Chinese liquor sector, as overall Chinese liquor demand has been lukewarm. </li>
<li>The current valuation for Moutai has become very attractive, and even if no rerating, the return is likely to be around 15% through earnings growth plus 2% from dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) announced the preliminary result for FY23, with sales and net profit both up 17% yoy. 
The overall weak consumer sentiment in China has not spared the Chinese liquor sector, as overall Chinese liquor demand has been lukewarm. 
The current valuation for Moutai has become very attractive, and even if no rerating, the return is likely to be around 15% through earnings growth plus 2% from dividend yield.


Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH):  Stability Amidst Overall Industry Weakness

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>3Q net profit grew 16.0% YoY to RMB16.9bn. The growth momentum sequentially decelerated from 20.8% in 1H, as revenue of the quarter slowed in tandem to 13.1% from 19.4% in 1H.</li><li>The 17% 9M revenue growth still largely tracks to consensus estimates; however, an unchanged 15% full year revenue growth guidance could imply 4Q revenue growth to dip further to HSD%, the lowest we note since 3Q20.</li><li>In fact, the trend looks to go hand-in-hand with distributors’ reluctance to restock after the Golden Week Holiday, when consumers have been increasingly trading down, and when sentiment to consume has been languishing. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q net profit grew 16.0% YoY to RMB16.9bn. The growth momentum sequentially decelerated from 20.8% in 1H, as revenue of the quarter slowed in tandem to 13.1% from 19.4% in 1H.The 17% 9M revenue growth still largely tracks to consensus estimates; however, an unchanged 15% full year revenue growth guidance could imply 4Q revenue growth to dip further to HSD%, the lowest we note since 3Q20.In fact, the trend looks to go hand-in-hand with distributors’ reluctance to restock after the Golden Week Holiday, when consumers have been increasingly trading down, and when sentiment to consume has been languishing. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) – 3Q Rev/Np +13%/16%; Mixed Near-Term Outlook

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Luxury liquor-maker Kweichow Moutai has teamed up with candy giant Mars Inc. to launch an alcohol-infused chocolate.</li><li>The state-owned Chinese company’s latest move to introduce its brand of fiery spirits to a new, and preferably younger, group of consumers.</li><li>The chocolate is Moutai’s latest effort to give its brand a bit more cache through partnerships with well-known consumer brands.</li></ul>

Luxury liquor-maker Kweichow Moutai has teamed up with candy giant Mars Inc. to launch an alcohol-infused chocolate.The state-owned Chinese company’s latest move to introduce its brand of fiery spirits to a new, and preferably younger, group of consumers.The chocolate is Moutai’s latest effort to give its brand a bit more cache through partnerships with well-known consumer brands.

After Lattes and Ice Cream, Moutai Serves Up Booze-Infused Chocolates

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


China

Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. manufactures spirits.  The Company's spirit products are distilled from sorghum and wheat.  Kweichow Moutai markets its products worldwide.

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Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)