Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP growth in 2023 will likely be less than 3%, with near-zero net FDI inflow and net foreign portfolio outflows of 2.9% of GDP in Jan-Sep'23. </li>
<li>But with inflation moderating, we expect BNM to cut its policy rate by Mar'24, spurring a rebound to 4.5% real GDP growth in 2024, and inducing positive net FDI inflows.</li>
<li>Budget 2024 credibly widens the tax base, raises services taxes, and begins the tough process of targeted subsidy rationalisation. The lower fiscal deficit should crowd-in private investment. We're cautiously bullish. </li>
</ul>


Real GDP growth in 2023 will likely be less than 3%, with near-zero net FDI inflow and net foreign portfolio outflows of 2.9% of GDP in Jan-Sep'23. 
But with inflation moderating, we expect BNM to cut its policy rate by Mar'24, spurring a rebound to 4.5% real GDP growth in 2024, and inducing positive net FDI inflows.
Budget 2024 credibly widens the tax base, raises services taxes, and begins the tough process of targeted subsidy rationalisation. The lower fiscal deficit should crowd-in private investment. We're cautiously bullish. 


Malaysia: Rate Cut by Mar'24, Lower Fiscal Deficit to Spur Cyclical Recovery in 2024

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>PM Anwar was strengthened in the near-term by PH comfortably winning the 3 states where it was the incumbent, although the alliance helped UMNO gain leverage in Negri Sembilan. </li>
<li>PAS won landslide victories in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah (three states that were part of Thailand until 1909, with smaller non-Malay populations). Bersatu is a token junior partner everywhere. </li>
<li>As the prospect of PAS gaining national power grows, non-Malay emigration and capital flight will increase, reversing the positive gain from the PKR-DAP vision of renewed strength for multi-racialism. </li>
</ul>


PM Anwar was strengthened in the near-term by PH comfortably winning the 3 states where it was the incumbent, although the alliance helped UMNO gain leverage in Negri Sembilan. 
PAS won landslide victories in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah (three states that were part of Thailand until 1909, with smaller non-Malay populations). Bersatu is a token junior partner everywhere. 
As the prospect of PAS gaining national power grows, non-Malay emigration and capital flight will increase, reversing the positive gain from the PKR-DAP vision of renewed strength for multi-racialism. 


Malaysia: State Elections Bolster Anwar Near-Term; Long-Term PAS Shadow Grows

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ql-resources-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11221:1" rel="noopener">Ql Resources (QLG MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hartalega-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10230:1" rel="noopener">Hartalega Holdings (HART MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>If the changes go through, glove makers will have no representation in the index. At one point in 2020, glove makers made up nearly 20% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">FBMKLCI INDEX</a>.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover at the rebalance will be around 3% and the impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions as compared to the deletions.</li>
</ul>



Ql Resources (QLG MK) and AMMB Holdings (AMM MK) could replace Hartalega Holdings (HART MK) and Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX).
If the changes go through, glove makers will have no representation in the index. At one point in 2020, glove makers made up nearly 20% of the FBMKLCI INDEX.
One-Way turnover at the rebalance will be around 3% and the impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions as compared to the deletions.


KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: No More Glovemakers in the Index (Or How the Mighty Have Fallen)

<ul>
<li>Expansionary fiscal and monetary policy have bolstered growth at the expense of a 13%YoY depreciation of the ringgit and capital flight reflected in shrinking FX reserves amid surging trade surpluses. </li>
<li>Elevated crude-oil and palm oil prices boosted the trade surplus, but the current account surplus shrank to less than 1% of GDP in 1H2022, as foreign-worker remittances soared. </li>
<li>Despite 24 years of current account surpluses, Malaysia's reserves provide just 4.6 months' import cover. Net FPI outflows persisted even when global equities were soaring. Kleptocracy is inducing capital flight.  </li>
</ul>


Expansionary fiscal and monetary policy have bolstered growth at the expense of a 13%YoY depreciation of the ringgit and capital flight reflected in shrinking FX reserves amid surging trade surpluses. 
Elevated crude-oil and palm oil prices boosted the trade surplus, but the current account surplus shrank to less than 1% of GDP in 1H2022, as foreign-worker remittances soared. 
Despite 24 years of current account surpluses, Malaysia's reserves provide just 4.6 months' import cover. Net FPI outflows persisted even when global equities were soaring. Kleptocracy is inducing capital flight.  


Malaysia: Local and Foreign Investors Are Fleeing Despite the Commodity Boom

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ql-resources-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11221:1" rel="noopener">Ql Resources (QLG MK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hartalega-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10230:1" rel="noopener">Hartalega Holdings (HART MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 2.87% and the impact of passive flows is larger on the potential adds as compared to the potential deletes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3954:1" rel="noopener">Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK)</a> is a close add and there could be changes over the next few months as we approach the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>



AMMB Holdings (AMM MK) and Ql Resources (QLG MK) could replace Hartalega Holdings (HART MK) and Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) at the December rebalance.
One way turnover is estimated at 2.87% and the impact of passive flows is larger on the potential adds as compared to the potential deletes.

Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) is a close add and there could be changes over the next few months as we approach the end of the review period.


KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: The Gloves Could Come Off

Malaysia

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index comprises of the largest 30 companies by full market capitalization on Bursa Malaysia's Main Board. When launched, on July 6, 2009 it replaced the Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index starting at the closing value of the KLCI Index on July 3 2009, also inheriting the full history of the KLCI Index.

Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)

Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)

Malaysia: Rate Cut by Mar'24, Lower Fiscal Deficit to Spur Cyclical Recovery in 2024

PM Anwar's 1st year has been disappointing, with sluggish growth & net outflows of FPI. But inflation abated, so policy rate is set to decline....

Prasenjit K. Basu

Malaysia: State Elections Bolster Anwar Near-Term; Long-Term PAS Shadow Grows

Anwar's govt retains stability after PH victories in Penang & Selangor, plurality in NS. But PAS landslides in 3 states, & gains in all 6, suggest...

Prasenjit K. Basu

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: No More Glovemakers in the Index (Or How the Mighty Have Fallen)

QL Resources and AMMB could replace Top Glove and Hartalega in the KLCI. That would mean no glove makers in the index, down from a near 20% index...

Brian Freitas

Malaysia: Local and Foreign Investors Are Fleeing Despite the Commodity Boom

Expansionary fiscal & monetary policy have bolstered growth but induced capital flight. Despite 24yrs of CA surpluses, FX reserves provide just 4.6...

Prasenjit K. Basu

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: The Gloves Could Come Off

AMMB and QL Resources could replace Hartalega and Top Glove in the KLCI at the December rebalance. Westports is a close add, while Top Glove needs...

Brian Freitas