Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We believe that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.</p>

We believe that JOYY (YY US) is a special situation that warrants a close look from the long side.  Our recent checks in the live broadcasting broadcasters and agencies suggest that broadcasters see a surge in traffic/new viewers from BIDU in recent weeks.  BIDU traffic is of lower quality than YY as BIDU’s existing business model for live streaming is ecommerce.  YY, on the other hand, discusses tips for broadcasters.  Baidu (BIDU US)  has opened multiple entries to YY.  For example, all viewers of Haokan Video (short video sub of Baidu (BIDU US) ) now have access to YY subsidiaries.  Haokan is said to have 30MM DAU through independent Haokan App, and 110 MM DAU through all apps in Baidu ecosystem in 2019.  Assuming YY can convert 1% DAU to paying users, that is 26% boost to YY existing paying users.

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Given Trump’s overhaul of US economy and world trade, US interest rate may stay high and Renminbi might depreciate further, both negative for our sectors from a foreign investor perspective;</li>
<li>We expect China to respond strongly to Trump Tariff 2.0, which will necessitate bigger stimulus, leading to a scenario of a policy overdose;</li>
<li>We look for: (1) high dividend yield, (2) US-dollar exposure, (3) policy overdose in stock selection. We add TRIP and ATAT to our DMC and reiterate our MMC  portfolios</li>
</ul>


Given Trump’s overhaul of US economy and world trade, US interest rate may stay high and Renminbi might depreciate further, both negative for our sectors from a foreign investor perspective;
We expect China to respond strongly to Trump Tariff 2.0, which will necessitate bigger stimulus, leading to a scenario of a policy overdose;
We look for: (1) high dividend yield, (2) US-dollar exposure, (3) policy overdose in stock selection. We add TRIP and ATAT to our DMC and reiterate our MMC  portfolios


Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

<ul>
<li>&lt;Peacekeeper&gt;'s more aggressive gameplay reforms and monetization changes have delivered better results, leading us to raise its 2024 annualized gross billings estimate slightly.</li>
<li>&lt;DnF Mobile&gt;'s new version experienced a slight decline in player retention, though this is likely temporary. As a result, we have slightly lowered its 2024 annualized grossing estimates.</li>
<li>NetEase's &lt;Eggy Party&gt; received player feedback that fell slightly below expectations. The game continues to face considerable pressure for revenue recovery, prompting us to lower our full-year revenue estimate slightly.</li>
</ul>


&lt;Peacekeeper&gt;'s more aggressive gameplay reforms and monetization changes have delivered better results, leading us to raise its 2024 annualized gross billings estimate slightly.
&lt;DnF Mobile&gt;'s new version experienced a slight decline in player retention, though this is likely temporary. As a result, we have slightly lowered its 2024 annualized grossing estimates.
NetEase's &lt;Eggy Party&gt; received player feedback that fell slightly below expectations. The game continues to face considerable pressure for revenue recovery, prompting us to lower our full-year revenue estimate slightly.


China Online Game Grossing Monitor: October 10, 2024 - December 16, 2024

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Top Ten most active contracts for the week all traded on Monday. Most of the active contracts were Calls with December expiries.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> makes the Top Ten non-Tencent most active contracts with both Puts and Call active – likely stock replacement and hedges following torrid run higher.</li>
<li>Tencent implied vols trading at their lowest levels of the past year.</li>
</ul>


Top Ten most active contracts for the week all traded on Monday. Most of the active contracts were Calls with December expiries.

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) makes the Top Ten non-Tencent most active contracts with both Puts and Call active – likely stock replacement and hedges following torrid run higher.
Tencent implied vols trading at their lowest levels of the past year.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International), Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International), Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

YY to broadcaster on May 21: “YY and Baidu live streaming channels will start sharing data. We asked our live broadcasters to welcome the new...

JL Warren Capital

Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

Trump's policies may lead to high US interest rates and a depreciating Renminbi. As remedy outside of buying high dividend stocks, we propose a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: October 10, 2024 - December 16, 2024

Peacekeeper and DnF Mobile continue to show performance volatility, while the Eggy Party has underperformed expectations. Meanwhile, Bilibili's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

Top Ten most active contracts traded on Monday, mostly Calls with December expiries. Xiaomi Corp makes most active contracts list with Puts and...

John Ley

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BIDU-YY Live Streaming Integration Update: Unlocking Deep Value in YY

YY to broadcaster on May 21: “YY and Baidu live streaming channels will start sharing data. We asked our live broadcasters to welcome the new...

JL Warren Capital

Invest in China Growth Equity in High-Rate Environment

​Trump's policies may lead to high US interest rates and a depreciating Renminbi. As remedy outside of buying high dividend stocks, we propose a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Game Grossing Monitor: October 10, 2024 - December 16, 2024

Peacekeeper and DnF Mobile continue to show performance volatility, while the Eggy Party has underperformed expectations. Meanwhile, Bilibili's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 09 – 13

​Top Ten most active contracts traded on Monday, mostly Calls with December expiries. Xiaomi Corp makes most active contracts list with Puts and...

John Ley

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 13th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic (International)

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Byd Electronic...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Trump's policies may lead to high US interest rates and a depreciating Renminbi. As remedy outside of buying high dividend stocks, we propose a...

Top Ten most active contracts traded on Monday, mostly Calls with December expiries. Xiaomi Corp makes most active contracts list with Puts and...