Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weaknesses of BABA stock and China tech sector in general post their strong earnings recovery for March quarter suggest market’s concerns centering around growth outlook.</li>
<li>BABA fundamental has tracked well to our projection since last November. P/E multiple contraction - which priced in too much pessimism - prevented our bullish call from materializing, for now.</li>
<li>We stick to our thesis that March quarter results set stage for BABA re-rating on sustained recovery, well-executed overhaul effectively unlocking value and investors’ renewed appetite for China assets.</li>
</ul>


Weaknesses of BABA stock and China tech sector in general post their strong earnings recovery for March quarter suggest market’s concerns centering around growth outlook.
BABA fundamental has tracked well to our projection since last November. P/E multiple contraction - which priced in too much pessimism - prevented our bullish call from materializing, for now.
We stick to our thesis that March quarter results set stage for BABA re-rating on sustained recovery, well-executed overhaul effectively unlocking value and investors’ renewed appetite for China assets.


Alibaba (BABA US): What It Takes for Re-Rating

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s spin-off's continue to draw interest.</li>
<li>The REIT were out in full force this week for placements as interest rates globally appear to be approaching their peak.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s spin-off's continue to draw interest.
The REIT were out in full force this week for placements as interest rates globally appear to be approaching their peak.


ECM Weekly (21st May 2023) - Alibaba, Cainiao, Baba Cloud, Nexus, DXN, Growatt, Rakuten, JD Ind

<ul>
<li>We believe BABA’s upcoming 4QFY23 results will surprise the market to the upside by a wide margin in terms of recovery in bottomline, catalyzing trading opportunity for short-term investors.</li>
<li>We also expect that the results will usher in a period of sustained re-rating for the stock due to China’s continued yet slow consumption recovery and Alibaba’s well-executed restructuring plan.</li>
<li>Geo-Political risks will not go away, but have been very much reflected in current pricing in our view. Buy ahead of results on Thursday.</li>
</ul>


We believe BABA’s upcoming 4QFY23 results will surprise the market to the upside by a wide margin in terms of recovery in bottomline, catalyzing trading opportunity for short-term investors.
We also expect that the results will usher in a period of sustained re-rating for the stock due to China’s continued yet slow consumption recovery and Alibaba’s well-executed restructuring plan.
Geo-Political risks will not go away, but have been very much reflected in current pricing in our view. Buy ahead of results on Thursday.


Alibaba (BABA US): Buy Ahead of March Quarter Results This Thursday

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> has over 1x ADV to buy from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH)</a> trackers. The stock is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.

Trip.com (9961 HK) has over 1x ADV to buy from Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) trackers. The stock is also an add to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI).


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

Alibaba (BABA US): What It Takes for Re-Rating

Despite markets' focus on near-term growth weakness, we stick to our bullish call on BABA on sustained recovery, well-executed reorganization...

Eric Chen

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ECM Weekly (21st May 2023) - Alibaba, Cainiao, Baba Cloud, Nexus, DXN, Growatt, Rakuten, JD Ind

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba (BABA US): Buy Ahead of March Quarter Results This Thursday

We believe BABA's upcoming 4QFY23 results will surprise the market to the upside by a wide margin in terms of recovery in bottomline. Buy ahead of...

Eric Chen

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. Trip.com is...

Brian Freitas

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