Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The latest Nvidia earnings report was testament to the demand for tech and particularly semis, and it proved the persistent strength of the AI theme.</li><li>Demand for semis is currently outpacing production, and we consequently see declines in inventory (chart 1.b).</li><li>Charting the yearly change in South Korean exports of semis looks almost as ridiculous, but, interestingly, equities haven’t followed as the correlation would suggest – in fact the EWY index is flat YoY (chart 1.a).</li></ul>

The latest Nvidia earnings report was testament to the demand for tech and particularly semis, and it proved the persistent strength of the AI theme.Demand for semis is currently outpacing production, and we consequently see declines in inventory (chart 1.b).Charting the yearly change in South Korean exports of semis looks almost as ridiculous, but, interestingly, equities haven’t followed as the correlation would suggest – in fact the EWY index is flat YoY (chart 1.a).

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

<ul><li>Global markets experienced a wobble following a stronger than expected US CPI inflation report, causing a spike in bond yields and a dip in equity markets.</li><li>The US CPI report breaks the trend of positive data and has implications for the Fed's rate cut decisions. While inflation is expected to moderate this year, it will take several data points to confirm this.</li><li>The upcoming minutes from the January FOMC meeting will provide more details on the Fed's thinking regarding rate cuts and adjustments to the pace of balance sheet rundown.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Global markets experienced a wobble following a stronger than expected US CPI inflation report, causing a spike in bond yields and a dip in equity markets.The US CPI report breaks the trend of positive data and has implications for the Fed's rate cut decisions. While inflation is expected to moderate this year, it will take several data points to confirm this.The upcoming minutes from the January FOMC meeting will provide more details on the Fed's thinking regarding rate cuts and adjustments to the pace of balance sheet rundown.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Week Ahead - Fed Meeting Minutes, Central Bank Meetings in Indonesia and Korea

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

South Korea

The South Korean won is the official currency of The Republic of Korea (South Korea). 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

EM Cycle Watch: South Korea a good buy?

The latest Nvidia earnings report was testament to the demand for tech and particularly semis, and it proved the persistent strength of the AI...

Steno Research

The Week Ahead - Fed Meeting Minutes, Central Bank Meetings in Indonesia and Korea

The stronger than expected US CPI inflation report caused turbulence in global markets, leading to a spike in bond yields, a dip in equity markets,...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)