Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Nov 10th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Medytox, Lg Energy Solution, Kakao, Krafton, Amorepacific.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Nov 10th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Medytox, Lg Energy Solution, Kakao, Krafton, Amorepacific.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 10th): Short Covers for LG Energy, Kakao, Krafton, Amorepacific

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>One noteworthy aspect is SK Square's strategic move towards gradually shifting its investment portfolio from platform businesses to companies within the semiconductor supply chain.</li>
<li>Given SK's aim to acquire a 1-2% stake as an anchor investor in ARM, selling the Krafton stake is necessary to secure sufficient funds for the potential ARM investment.</li>
<li>We may consider positioning to capitalize on SK Square's potential block deal for its Krafton stake, aligning with the schedule for selecting anchor investors in August for the ARM listing.</li>
</ul>


One noteworthy aspect is SK Square's strategic move towards gradually shifting its investment portfolio from platform businesses to companies within the semiconductor supply chain.
Given SK's aim to acquire a 1-2% stake as an anchor investor in ARM, selling the Krafton stake is necessary to secure sufficient funds for the potential ARM investment.
We may consider positioning to capitalize on SK Square's potential block deal for its Krafton stake, aligning with the schedule for selecting anchor investors in August for the ARM listing.


Seizing Shorting Opportunities on Krafton as ARM Seeks Anchor Investors

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ150 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.</li>
<li>The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.</li>
<li>AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the KOSPI2 INDEX, KOSDAQ150 Index, CSI300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.
The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.
AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, GDXJ, KRX New Deal, AMFI, Amman Mineral, Infratil

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We recently visited some start-up game companies in China and concluded that the Chinese gaming market has entered a matured period of competition for existing users;</li>
<li>Tencent's games remain relatively stable, but information about new RMB 10bn level blockbusters is still unknown. New shooting games continue to appear, putting pressure on existing survival shooting games;</li>
<li>We (1) maintain our BUY for Tencent and Unity, (2) maintain SELL for Sea, and (3) downgrade Krafton to SELL to reflect the new competition that shooting games will face.</li>
</ul>


We recently visited some start-up game companies in China and concluded that the Chinese gaming market has entered a matured period of competition for existing users;
Tencent's games remain relatively stable, but information about new RMB 10bn level blockbusters is still unknown. New shooting games continue to appear, putting pressure on existing survival shooting games;
We (1) maintain our BUY for Tencent and Unity, (2) maintain SELL for Sea, and (3) downgrade Krafton to SELL to reflect the new competition that shooting games will face.


Tencent/SEA/Unity/Krafton: More Shooting Games Are Emerging, a Summary of Our Recent Channel Checks

South Korea

HYBE Co., Ltd. operates as an entertainment company. The Company provides music production, album distribution, entertainers management, publicity, planning, training, and other services. HYBE also makes television shows.

Netmarble Corporation develops and publishes mobile games. The Company develops and publishes casual games, action, sports games, strategy, simulation games, and social casino games. Netmarble offers services worldwide.

Pearl Abyss Corp. operates as a computer games making company. The Company offers games development, games exporting, and other services. Pearl Abyss serves customers worldwide.

Kakao Games Corp. operates as a multiply platform gaming company. The Company provides mobile games, computer games, virtual reality games, and other related products. Kakao Games markets its products worldwide.

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. is a Korean mobile and telecommunications operator. The Company provides cellular voice, wireless data, and wireless internet services. SK Telecom also offers fixed line services and platform services.

KT Corporation provides telecommunication services including local, long distance, and international calling, satellite communication, data transmission, and wireless telephone services in South Korea.  The Company also offers network portal and high-speed Internet access services using asymmetric digital subscriber lines (ADSLs).

LG Uplus Corp., an affiliate of LG Group, provides a wide range of personal communications services (PCS) using code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.  The Company offers call forwarding, call and data transfer, call waiting, voice mail, Internet-phone, prepaid call, and authentication text-to-speech (TTS) services.

LS Cable & System Asia Ltd. provides and offers cable products.  The Company manufactures and markets electric and telecommunication cables, head transmission lines, voltage cables and industrial specialty cables for the energy, infrastructure, construction, automotive, railway, telecommunication and electronics industries.

KINX INC is the Internet linkage and line adapter service providing firm.  The Company provides IX and Internet Data Center service to the network service providers to reduce the traffic and to contruct Internet infrastructure.  KINX also provides VoIP service.

Sejong Telecom, Inc. develops and provides various telecom service.  The Company's main service include international phone call, Internet phone call, and long distance call.

Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers entertainment content, as well as specializes in marketing and licensing, representation, and event management. Endeavor Group Holdings serves customers worldwide.

Roku, Inc. designs and manufactures consumer electronic products. The Company offers wireless enabled devices that stream audio and video content from the internet to home entertainment systems. Roku serves customers globally.

Kunlun Tech Co., Ltd. offers comprehensive Internet value-added services. The Company focuses on social network interactive and online game fields. Kunlun Tech also provides localized translation outsourcing and agency advertising services.

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

China Ruyi Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on online streaming video and internet community businesses. China Ruyi Holdings also manufactures and sells photographic, electronic, and multimedia accessories.

37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.,Ltd designs, develops, and operates mobile games and web games. The Company also provides game promotion, customer service, top-up payment, and other services. 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group conducts its businesses in China.

37 Interactive Entertainment N (002555 CH)

Lions Gate Entertainment Corporation develops and distributes film entertainment contents. The Company produces motion pictures, television programming, animation, and digital media. Lions Gate Entertainment serves customers worldwide.

World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc. operates as a media and entertainment company. The Company offers live wrestling events, television programming, music publishing, advertising, licensing, and home video streaming services. World Wrestling distributes its programs worldwide in various languages.

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides theatrical exhibition, movie screening, food distribution, online ticket booking, and other related services. AMC Entertainment offers movie theaters worldwide.

Saregama India Limited manufactures, sells and deals in Audio Cassettes, CD's and DVDs, which they market in India, Europe, the USA, Canada, the Caribbean Islands and South Africa. The Group's range of music encompasses both new and old Hindi films, regional films, ghazals, classical, Indipop and International. Saregama also has a film business, which produces films and TV serials.

Krafton, Inc. operates as a game development company. The Company develops console games, mobile games, computer games, and other related products. Krafton markets its products throughout South Korea.

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Krafton (259960 KS)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 10th): Short Covers for LG Energy, Kakao, Krafton, Amorepacific

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Medytox, Lg Energy Solution, Kakao, Krafton,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Seizing Shorting Opportunities on Krafton as ARM Seeks Anchor Investors

This post examines shorting situation to capitalize on SK Square's potential block deal for its Krafton stake, aligning with the schedule for...

Sanghyun Park

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, GDXJ, KRX New Deal, AMFI, Amman Mineral, Infratil

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Tencent/SEA/Unity/Krafton: More Shooting Games Are Emerging, a Summary of Our Recent Channel Checks

We (1) maintain our BUY for Tencent and Unity, (2) maintain SELL for Sea, and (3) downgrade Krafton to SELL to reflect the new competition that...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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