Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> beat consensus OP comprehensively in Q3, the company lowered its full-year revenue and OP guidance citing weaker than expected demand in Japan and worsening COVID-19 health crisis in Europe and the US. However, Shiseido shares were up 4.7% yesterday following the release of positive COVID-19 vaccine update by Pfizer. With the 2021 EV/OP multiple at an all-time high of 52.0x, it appears that the post-pandemic recovery is already priced in.

Although Shiseido Company (4911 JP) beat consensus OP comprehensively in Q3, the company lowered its full-year revenue and OP guidance citing weaker than expected demand in Japan and worsening COVID-19 health crisis in Europe and the US. However, Shiseido shares were up 4.7% yesterday following the release of positive COVID-19 vaccine update by Pfizer. With the 2021 EV/OP multiple at an all-time high of 52.0x, it appears that the post-pandemic recovery is already priced in.

Shiseido: Departing From Cost Discipline or Playing Safe?

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>’s second-quarter revenue and operating income fell short of consensus estimates by 0.3% and 14.5%, respectively, but 1HFY21 revenue was broadly in line with the interim revenue guidance, while 1HFY21 OP beat guidance by 13.5%. Cosmetics revenue and operating profit declined by 23.3% and 58.7%, while the Nutritional Supplements segment saw revenue declined 10.4%, but operating profit grew by 3.4% year-on-year.Fancl eventually admitted that inbound demand is unlikely to recover in the second half of the year. Therefore, the company decided to lower its full-year revenue and OP guidance by ¥7.0 billion and ¥1.5 billion, respectively. However, the revised full-year revenue guidance is just 5.4% lower than the previous year, which is significantly lower compared to 15.8% and 12.5% for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> respectively. The relative performance difference of Fancl was substantially better at the OP level.

Fancl Corp (4921 JP)’s second-quarter revenue and operating income fell short of consensus estimates by 0.3% and 14.5%, respectively, but 1HFY21 revenue was broadly in line with the interim revenue guidance, while 1HFY21 OP beat guidance by 13.5%. Cosmetics revenue and operating profit declined by 23.3% and 58.7%, while the Nutritional Supplements segment saw revenue declined 10.4%, but operating profit grew by 3.4% year-on-year.Fancl eventually admitted that inbound demand is unlikely to recover in the second half of the year. Therefore, the company decided to lower its full-year revenue and OP guidance by ¥7.0 billion and ¥1.5 billion, respectively. However, the revised full-year revenue guidance is just 5.4% lower than the previous year, which is significantly lower compared to 15.8% and 12.5% for Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and Kose Corp (4922 JP) respectively. The relative performance difference of Fancl was substantially better at the OP level.

The Market Is Yet to Price Fancl’s China Expansion

Event-Driven

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-cosmetics-pair-trade-long-fancl-short-kose" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Fancl/​Short Kose</a>, we suggested setting up a long/short pair trade between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> before Kose’s Q2 earnings release on 30th October 2020. Kose released its 2QFY21 results last Friday and results were underwhelming as expected.The main catalyst for our long/short trade idea was the quarterly earnings. Part one of the catalyst (Kose’s earnings) yielded 10.6% as Kose’s share price has underperformed Fancl by the same percentage since our previous insight. We believe Part two (Fancl’s earnings) could realise an extra 5-6% in market-neutral returns and therefore suggests investors wait until Fancl’s quarterly results on 4th November 2020 before closing the trade.

In Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Fancl/​Short Kose, we suggested setting up a long/short pair trade between Fancl Corp (4921 JP) and Kose Corp (4922 JP) before Kose’s Q2 earnings release on 30th October 2020. Kose released its 2QFY21 results last Friday and results were underwhelming as expected.The main catalyst for our long/short trade idea was the quarterly earnings. Part one of the catalyst (Kose’s earnings) yielded 10.6% as Kose’s share price has underperformed Fancl by the same percentage since our previous insight. We believe Part two (Fancl’s earnings) could realise an extra 5-6% in market-neutral returns and therefore suggests investors wait until Fancl’s quarterly results on 4th November 2020 before closing the trade.

Long Fancl/Short Kose: Kose’s Q2 Results As Expected, Now Waiting For Fancl to Come Through

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-cosmetics-pair-trade-long-kose-short-shiseido" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/​​Short Shiseido</a>, we suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kose-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18009:1" rel="noopener">Kose Corp (4922 JP)</a> could outperform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> and the rest of the Japanese cosmetics peers. Since then, Kose’s share price increased by 20.2%, while Shiseido’s price decreased by 2.3%.
As the earnings season approaches, we suggest that investors consider closing the Long Kose/Short Shiseido trade and reversing the same, but this time with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a> as the hedge.

In Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Kose/​​Short Shiseido, we suggested that Kose Corp (4922 JP) could outperform Shiseido Company (4911 JP) and the rest of the Japanese cosmetics peers. Since then, Kose’s share price increased by 20.2%, while Shiseido’s price decreased by 2.3%.
As the earnings season approaches, we suggest that investors consider closing the Long Kose/Short Shiseido trade and reversing the same, but this time with Fancl Corp (4921 JP) as the hedge.

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Fancl/Short Kose

As lockdowns and restrictions eased towards the end of the second quarter and into the third quarter, Japanese cosmetics companies are expected to stage a comeback in 3Q2020. As a result, all major Japanese cosmetics companies (excluding Pola Orbis, who is struggling to regain its mojo) are trading near their historical high FY+2 EV/EBIT multiples.Main overseas markets have performed exceptionally well during the July and August 2020 months. Japan’s cosmetics exports to main countries grew 23% year-on-year during the July-August period compared to 4.5% in 2Q20.However, domestic sales during July and August 2020 remained 25-30% lower than the pre-pandemic level. We believe the immediate domestic cosmetics sales recovery could be over. The 25-30% loss of domestic demand is predominantly a result of non-existent inbound sales while behavioural changes due to COVID-19 may have also had a small impact. We expect the behavioural changes to have a lasting impact on domestic demand. However, as travel restrictions are lifted inbound demand could return and warrant a sharp increase in domestic sales.In this insight, we analyse Japan’s cosmetic industry using the monthly data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Finance.

As lockdowns and restrictions eased towards the end of the second quarter and into the third quarter, Japanese cosmetics companies are expected to stage a comeback in 3Q2020. As a result, all major Japanese cosmetics companies (excluding Pola Orbis, who is struggling to regain its mojo) are trading near their historical high FY+2 EV/EBIT multiples.Main overseas markets have performed exceptionally well during the July and August 2020 months. Japan’s cosmetics exports to main countries grew 23% year-on-year during the July-August period compared to 4.5% in 2Q20.However, domestic sales during July and August 2020 remained 25-30% lower than the pre-pandemic level. We believe the immediate domestic cosmetics sales recovery could be over. The 25-30% loss of domestic demand is predominantly a result of non-existent inbound sales while behavioural changes due to COVID-19 may have also had a small impact. We expect the behavioural changes to have a lasting impact on domestic demand. However, as travel restrictions are lifted inbound demand could return and warrant a sharp increase in domestic sales.In this insight, we analyse Japan’s cosmetic industry using the monthly data released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Finance.

Japanese Cosmetics Stats: Absent Inbound Demand Pauses Domestic Recovery, Exports Grow Double-Digits

Japan

KOSE Corporation manufactures, retails, and exports cosmetics including make up, skin care, and hair care products.  The Company sells its products in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Malaysia.

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Kose Corp (4922 JP)

Shiseido: Departing From Cost Discipline or Playing Safe?

Although Shiseido beat consensus OP comprehensively in Q3, the company lowered its full-year revenue and OP guidance citing weaker than expected...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

The Market Is Yet to Price Fancl’s China Expansion

Fancl’s second-quarter revenue and operating income fell short of consensus estimates by 0.3% and 14.5%, respectively, but 1HFY21 revenue was...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Long Fancl/Short Kose: Kose’s Q2 Results As Expected, Now Waiting For Fancl to Come Through

As lockdowns and restrictions were eased towards the end of the quarter ended June 2020, investors expected the domestic cosmetics sector to make a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Cosmetics Pair Trade: Long Fancl/Short Kose

As the earnings season approaches, we suggest that investors consider closing the Long Kose/Short Shiseido trade and reversing the same, but this...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japanese Cosmetics Stats: Absent Inbound Demand Pauses Domestic Recovery, Exports Grow Double-Digits

Japan’s cosmetics exports to main countries grew 23% year-on-year during the July-August period compared to 4.5% in 2Q20.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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