Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are well-positioned to capitalize on global cyclical tailwinds.</li><li>Especially as Chinese economic activity picks up pace.</li><li>The Caixin PMI suggests expansion, and given trade ties and scarcity of semis this should, all else equal, continue to boost Korean exports.</li></ul>

We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are well-positioned to capitalize on global cyclical tailwinds.Especially as Chinese economic activity picks up pace.The Caixin PMI suggests expansion, and given trade ties and scarcity of semis this should, all else equal, continue to boost Korean exports.

Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?

<ul><li>Welcome to the Emerging Market Series, this week covering the rotating capital flows away from Japan and its significance for China and Emerging AsiaWatch a condensed version of the key findings from this article on video.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Recovering from the ‘lost decades’ Japanese equities have been out of favor and continuously underperforming global benchmarks. </span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">For 2023 however, the Nikkei 225 actually outperformed the S&amp;P 500, returning 28% vs. 24% respectively, and the euphoria around Japan returning to normalcy in terms of structural inflation, growth and its feasibility as an investment has continued into 2024 (Nikkei vs. SPX ≈ 15% vs. 8.5%). </span></li></ul>

Welcome to the Emerging Market Series, this week covering the rotating capital flows away from Japan and its significance for China and Emerging AsiaWatch a condensed version of the key findings from this article on video.Recovering from the ‘lost decades’ Japanese equities have been out of favor and continuously underperforming global benchmarks. For 2023 however, the Nikkei 225 actually outperformed the S&amp;P 500, returning 28% vs. 24% respectively, and the euphoria around Japan returning to normalcy in terms of structural inflation, growth and its feasibility as an investment has continued into 2024 (Nikkei vs. SPX ≈ 15% vs. 8.5%). 

Rotating EM Flows: From Japan to Emerging Asia

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

<ul><li>The latest Nvidia earnings report was testament to the demand for tech and particularly semis, and it proved the persistent strength of the AI theme.</li><li>Demand for semis is currently outpacing production, and we consequently see declines in inventory (chart 1.b).</li><li>Charting the yearly change in South Korean exports of semis looks almost as ridiculous, but, interestingly, equities haven’t followed as the correlation would suggest – in fact the EWY index is flat YoY (chart 1.a).</li></ul>

The latest Nvidia earnings report was testament to the demand for tech and particularly semis, and it proved the persistent strength of the AI theme.Demand for semis is currently outpacing production, and we consequently see declines in inventory (chart 1.b).Charting the yearly change in South Korean exports of semis looks almost as ridiculous, but, interestingly, equities haven’t followed as the correlation would suggest – in fact the EWY index is flat YoY (chart 1.a).

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

SAMSUNGACTIVE KoAct Dividend Growth ETF / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February.</li>
<li>There are 45 stocks in the ETF and the aim is to beat the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22911:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)</a> by employing an active management strategy. </li>
<li>Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials stocks make up nearly two-thirds of the ETF, the dividend yield of the underlying basket is 4% and the forward dividend yield is slightly higher.</li>
</ul>


The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February.
There are 45 stocks in the ETF and the aim is to beat the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX) by employing an active management strategy. 
Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials stocks make up nearly two-thirds of the ETF, the dividend yield of the underlying basket is 4% and the forward dividend yield is slightly higher.


Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Emerging Markets: Legs to the Korea case or time to cash in?

We see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts, and Korean industries are...

Steno Research

Rotating EM Flows: From Japan to Emerging Asia

Welcome to the Emerging Market Series, this week covering the rotating capital flows away from Japan and its significance for China and Emerging...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

EM Cycle Watch: South Korea a good buy?

The latest Nvidia earnings report was testament to the demand for tech and particularly semis, and it proved the persistent strength of the AI...

Steno Research

Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF

The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February. The div yield of the underlying...

Brian Freitas