Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the upcoming end of lockup in December for Ecopro Materials and why we believe Ecopro Materials' share price will be much lower in 6-12 months. </li>
<li>A combination of the potential inclusion in KOSPI Fast Entry plus the temporary ban on short selling of stocks in Korea has helped to push up Ecopro Materials' share price.</li>
<li>However, despite this sharp share price run-up, we think the risk-reward is horrible on this stock in terms of bigger downside risk in the next 6-12 months. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the upcoming end of lockup in December for Ecopro Materials and why we believe Ecopro Materials' share price will be much lower in 6-12 months. 
A combination of the potential inclusion in KOSPI Fast Entry plus the temporary ban on short selling of stocks in Korea has helped to push up Ecopro Materials' share price.
However, despite this sharp share price run-up, we think the risk-reward is horrible on this stock in terms of bigger downside risk in the next 6-12 months. 


Ecopro Materials: Overshooting Share Price and Upcoming End of Lockup in December

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-kodex-fn-top10-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40203:1" rel="noopener">Samsung KODEX Fn Top10 Equal Weight ETF (395170 KS)</a> tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of US$264m.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Corp (000270 KS)</a> to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-future-m-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Future M (003670 KS)</a> in the index at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be 0.4x ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Corp (000270 KS)</a> while passives will need to sell 0.1x ADV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-future-m-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Future M (003670 KS)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The Samsung KODEX Fn Top10 Equal Weight ETF (395170 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of US$264m.
We expect Kia Corp (000270 KS) to replace Posco Future M (003670 KS) in the index at the December rebalance.
There will be 0.4x ADV to buy in Kia Corp (000270 KS) while passives will need to sell 0.1x ADV of Posco Future M (003670 KS). 


FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Rate Cuts?

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Giving Thanks

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction / Event-Driven

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering & Construction

<ul>
<li>There will be 7 additions and 7 deletions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> at the December rebalance that will be implemented on 14 December.</li>
<li>The rebalance is on expected lines, though the index committee decided not to add <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/youngpoong-paper-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3467:1" rel="noopener">Youngpoong Paper (006740 KS)</a> to the index. Not really a big surprise given the price move.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdc-hyundai-development-co-engineering-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27397:1" rel="noopener">HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering &amp; Construction (294870 KS)</a> is a surprise delete and there is not much short interest that could cover against the passive selling.</li>
</ul>


There will be 7 additions and 7 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) at the December rebalance that will be implemented on 14 December.
The rebalance is on expected lines, though the index committee decided not to add Youngpoong Paper (006740 KS) to the index. Not really a big surprise given the price move.

HDC Hyundai Development Co-Engineering &amp; Construction (294870 KS) is a surprise delete and there is not much short interest that could cover against the passive selling.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Mostly Expected Though Some Discretion Used

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M

Kia Corp could replace Posco Future M in the FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight index in Dec - that would reverse the Sep change. There is 0.4x ADV to buy...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Rate Cuts?

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Giving Thanks

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Mostly Expected Though Some Discretion Used

There are 7 changes for the KOSPI200 in December. While most changes are expected, there are a few surprises. Impact is large on most stocks and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ecopro Materials: Overshooting Share Price and Upcoming End of Lockup in December

KRX announced that it will add Ecopro Materials in KOSPI 200 index effective 15 December to replace K Car due to meeting index fast entry rules....

Douglas Kim

FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Kia Corp Could Replace Posco Future M

Kia Corp could replace Posco Future M in the FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight index in Dec - that would reverse the Sep change. There is 0.4x ADV to buy...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Rate Cuts?

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Giving Thanks

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Mostly Expected Though Some Discretion Used

There are 7 changes for the KOSPI200 in December. While most changes are expected, there are a few surprises. Impact is large on most stocks and...

Brian Freitas