Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss three particular allies that could help the Choi family that have been highlighted by the local media including Hanwha, KIS, and Softbank.</li>
<li>The Hanwha Group is one of the largest shareholders of Korea Zinc. In addition, Hanwha Group Vice Chairman Kim Dong-Kwan has a close relationship with Korea Zinc Chairman Choi Yoon-Beom.</li>
<li>Korea Zinc is planning to hold an important press conference on the 24 September to reveal its position on the tender offer of Korea Zinc shares by MBK.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss three particular allies that could help the Choi family that have been highlighted by the local media including Hanwha, KIS, and Softbank.
The Hanwha Group is one of the largest shareholders of Korea Zinc. In addition, Hanwha Group Vice Chairman Kim Dong-Kwan has a close relationship with Korea Zinc Chairman Choi Yoon-Beom.
Korea Zinc is planning to hold an important press conference on the 24 September to reveal its position on the tender offer of Korea Zinc shares by MBK.


What Are Locals Saying About Potential Allies to Choi Family in Fight for Korea Zinc?

<ul>
<li>Hankyung Business Daily reported that Korea Investment Securities (KIS) is in a serious discussion with the Choi family of Korea Zinc to step up as a white knight.</li>
<li>KIS/Choi family are considering a plan to launch a counterbid against Jang family and MBK by investing around 2 trillion won+ along with other private equity funds.</li>
<li>It is probable that tender offer price of Korea Zinc could be raised by 15-25% due to a likely counterbid and current price trading 7% higher than tender offer price.</li>
</ul>


Hankyung Business Daily reported that Korea Investment Securities (KIS) is in a serious discussion with the Choi family of Korea Zinc to step up as a white knight.
KIS/Choi family are considering a plan to launch a counterbid against Jang family and MBK by investing around 2 trillion won+ along with other private equity funds.
It is probable that tender offer price of Korea Zinc could be raised by 15-25% due to a likely counterbid and current price trading 7% higher than tender offer price.


Korea Investment Securities to Step up as the White Knight for Choi Family at Korea Zinc

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The key issue is if KIS can form a consortium. PEFs are saying the timeline is too tight and are concerned about the unclear exit strategy.</li>
<li>To make this work, PEFs need Choi's 15.65% Korea Zinc stake as collateral, but much of it is already tied up, limiting cash-raising potential.</li>
<li>They’ll likely continue to leak news to boost the price and buy time. But this will also push MBK to sweeten their offer sooner.</li>
</ul>


The key issue is if KIS can form a consortium. PEFs are saying the timeline is too tight and are concerned about the unclear exit strategy.
To make this work, PEFs need Choi's 15.65% Korea Zinc stake as collateral, but much of it is already tied up, limiting cash-raising potential.
They’ll likely continue to leak news to boost the price and buy time. But this will also push MBK to sweeten their offer sooner.


Digging into the News Flow on KIS Jumping in as the White Knight for Choi in the Korea Zinc Deal

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.</li>
<li>Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.</li>
<li>Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.
Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.
Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.


Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested - What's Next?

South Korea

Korea Investment Holdings Co., Ltd. is a financial holding company. The Company operates and controls its financial subsidiaries such as Korea Investment & Securities, Korea Investment Partners, and Korea Investment Mutual Savings Bank.

Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS)

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Korea Investment Holdings Co, Ltd. (071050 KS)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

What Are Locals Saying About Potential Allies to Choi Family in Fight for Korea Zinc?

In this insight, we discuss three particular allies that could help the Choi family that have been highlighted by the local media including Hanwha,...

Douglas Kim

Korea Investment Securities to Step up as the White Knight for Choi Family at Korea Zinc

KIS/Choi family are considering a plan to launch a counterbid against Jang family and MBK by investing around 2 trillion won+ along with other...

Douglas Kim

Digging into the News Flow on KIS Jumping in as the White Knight for Choi in the Korea Zinc Deal

This post digs into the news flow about Korea Investment & Securities stepping in as the white knight for Choi’s side in the Korea Zinc deal.

Sanghyun Park

Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested - What's Next?

As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)