Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-hstech-sep-23-flow-expectations-two-adds-dels-possible" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104332" rel="noopener">Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible</a>, I discussed my initial flow expectations and potential index changes for the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The suggested (previous insight) SHORT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK)</a> is down 10.6% vs the hedge <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health International (6618 HK)</a> in ~1.5 months. </li>
<li>In this insight, I have presented my <em>updated flow expectations</em> and some new trade ideas for the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


In Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible, I discussed my initial flow expectations and potential index changes for the September 2023 Rebalance.
The suggested (previous insight) SHORT Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) is down 10.6% vs the hedge JD Health International (6618 HK) in ~1.5 months. 
In this insight, I have presented my updated flow expectations and some new trade ideas for the next few weeks.


Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We cautioned investors about the excessive optimism around the company’s growth potential a few months ago.</li>
<li>Its growth momentum has since rapidly diminished, at a pace that also surprises us and points to a dimmer outlook.</li>
<li>Despite rounds of downward earnings revision, we still see further downside risks to earnings. We expect 20-30% decline in share price by end of this year.</li>
</ul>


We cautioned investors about the excessive optimism around the company’s growth potential a few months ago.
Its growth momentum has since rapidly diminished, at a pace that also surprises us and points to a dimmer outlook.
Despite rounds of downward earnings revision, we still see further downside risks to earnings. We expect 20-30% decline in share price by end of this year.


Koolearn (1797 HK): Dimmer Outlook Not yet Priced In

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Yet another week of inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.
The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
Yet another week of inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

<ul>
<li>We expect one change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in September - though there could be a second change as well.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.13% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$2.01bn in case there are two index changes. Turnover will be lower if there is only one change.</li>
<li>Short interest on some of the potential changes is over 15% of float and there could be big moves on the stocks post announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


We expect one change to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September - though there could be a second change as well.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.13% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$2.01bn in case there are two index changes. Turnover will be lower if there is only one change.
Short interest on some of the potential changes is over 15% of float and there could be big moves on the stocks post announcement of the changes.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): One Change or Two?

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in September 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I see two ADDs and two DELs. </li>
<li>For the September 2023 rebalance, I expect one-way capping flows to be around US$234mn.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in September 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I see two ADDs and two DELs. 
For the September 2023 rebalance, I expect one-way capping flows to be around US$234mn.


Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible

China

East Buy Holding Limited operates livestreaming platform businesses. The Company provides private label products including agricultural products, food, books, and household goods. East Buy Holding also conducts college education businesses.

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East Buy Holding (1797 HK)

Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas

The HSTECH Sep 23 index changes could be announced after the close on Friday 18th August 2023. I expect two ADDs and two DELs during the Sep 23...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Koolearn (1797 HK): Dimmer Outlook Not yet Priced In

The company is losing steam at a much faster pace than we thought. We still see 25% downside from here given consensus has not reflected its dimmer...

Eric Chen

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): One Change or Two?

We forecast 1 change in September, though there be another change as well. Short interest is high on the potential deletes & there could be...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible

I see East Buy (formerly Koolearn (1797 HK)) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) as ADDs and AAC Technologies (2018 HK) and Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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