IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> lock-up expiry and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-marine-solution-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41002:1" rel="noopener">HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-hexacom" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40858:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/langham-hospitality-inv-ss" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:760:1" rel="noopener">Langham Hospitality Inv Ss (1270 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intellicentrics-global-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40901:1" rel="noopener">IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK)</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jastec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9201:1" rel="noopener">Jastec Co Ltd (9717 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-world-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4600:1" rel="noopener">Best World International (BEST SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6762:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Singapore (ISET SP)</a>.     </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) lock-up expiry and HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS), Bharti Hexacom (6597372Z IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: Langham Hospitality Inv Ss (1270 HK), IntelliCentrics Global Holding (6819 HK) Jastec Co Ltd (9717 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Best World International (BEST SP), Isetan Singapore (ISET SP).     


Weekly Deals Digest (07 Apr) - Kokusai Electric, HD Hyundai Marine, Langham, Jastec, JSR, Best World

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.</li>
<li>The likely seller will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; (KKR US)</a> as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.</li>
<li>Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. </li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$4.8 billion.
The likely seller will be KKR &amp; (KKR US) as it was the sole selling shareholder in the IPO. The shares are currently trading at 2.4x the IPO price.
Kokusai anticipates a return to growth and margin improvement in FY24. However, Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and is fully priced. 


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Greenvolt-Energias Renovaveis / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR is pursuing the acquisition and delisting of the Portuguese renewable energy company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greenvolt-energias-renovaveis" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40659:1" rel="noopener">Greenvolt-Energias Renovaveis (GVOLT PL)</a> at €8.30/share in cash, an 11.5% premium to CSP, 95.3% premium to IPO price.</li>
<li>The price also represents 30% discount to the highest closing share price, but core shareholders (60.86%) seem happy to sell, which will trigger a mandatory offer.</li>
<li>The offer doesn't seem generous. Although KKR could sweeten the price to encourage minorities to tender, precedents of Solarpack and Opdenergy do not invite much optimism. Long.</li>
</ul>


KKR is pursuing the acquisition and delisting of the Portuguese renewable energy company Greenvolt-Energias Renovaveis (GVOLT PL) at €8.30/share in cash, an 11.5% premium to CSP, 95.3% premium to IPO price.
The price also represents 30% discount to the highest closing share price, but core shareholders (60.86%) seem happy to sell, which will trigger a mandatory offer.
The offer doesn't seem generous. Although KKR could sweeten the price to encourage minorities to tender, precedents of Solarpack and Opdenergy do not invite much optimism. Long.


<ul>
<li>KKR takes advantage of a the depressed share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smart-metering-systems-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23459:1" rel="noopener">Smart Metering Systems (SMS LN)</a>  that operates a stable, cash generating and misunderstood defensive business with revenues linked to inflation.</li>
<li>KKR offers 955p (+8.31875p/share declared divi), a 40% premium 40%, 15x EV/24e EBITDA. 0.1% irrevocable undertakings is negligible (top ten shareholders own c.54%). A counteroffer and/or sweetening is possible.</li>
<li>Spread is 0.45%/1.52% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 29 March, including declared dividend). Turnover has been high since announcement. Risk/return seems attractive. Recommendation is long SMS LN.</li>
</ul>


KKR takes advantage of a the depressed share price of Smart Metering Systems (SMS LN)  that operates a stable, cash generating and misunderstood defensive business with revenues linked to inflation.
KKR offers 955p (+8.31875p/share declared divi), a 40% premium 40%, 15x EV/24e EBITDA. 0.1% irrevocable undertakings is negligible (top ten shareholders own c.54%). A counteroffer and/or sweetening is possible.
Spread is 0.45%/1.52% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 29 March, including declared dividend). Turnover has been high since announcement. Risk/return seems attractive. Recommendation is long SMS LN.


KKR/Smart Metering Systems: Agreed Cheap Offer

Education Sector Analyst, Schoolhouse Solutions

Anik Siwach

Education Sector Analyst

Schoolhouse Solutions

Schoolhouse is a strategy and research provider for the Education sector. We publish differentiated reports and bespoke research on the sector, focused on private and public companies in Asia-Pacific. Our team has decades of experience working with Education companies ranging from K-12 to Tertiary and Edtech.

Strategy and Research Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EdTech Market Volatility: Docebo and Tribal Group report significant YTD gains of +27% and +32%, while Janison and LTG Group face steep declines of -59% and -45%.</li>
<li>AI Disruption and Adaptation: Chegg introduces a GPT-style assistant in response to AI challenges, while Duolingo excels with 83.1M monthly users, expanding beyond language tuition.</li>
<li>Shifts in Private Funding: Private EdTech funding declines in 2023, with strategic investors and family offices driving deals, amidst a broader reduction in venture capital investments.</li>
</ul>


EdTech Market Volatility: Docebo and Tribal Group report significant YTD gains of +27% and +32%, while Janison and LTG Group face steep declines of -59% and -45%.
AI Disruption and Adaptation: Chegg introduces a GPT-style assistant in response to AI challenges, while Duolingo excels with 83.1M monthly users, expanding beyond language tuition.
Shifts in Private Funding: Private EdTech funding declines in 2023, with strategic investors and family offices driving deals, amidst a broader reduction in venture capital investments.


Education Sector YTD: Volatility in Public Equities, PE Stalking with Take Private Offers

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY Mellon) is a global financial services company. The Company provides asset and wealth management, asset servicing, issuer, clearing, and treasury services for institutions, corporations, and high net worth individuals.

BlackRock, Inc. provides diversified investment management services to institutional clients and to retail investors through various investment vehicles. The Company offers the BlackRock Funds and Blackrock Liquidity Funds, and also provides risk management services to fixed income institutional investors.

S&P Global Inc. provides clients with financial information services. The Company offers information regarding ratings, benchmarks, and analytics in the global capital and commodity markets. S&P Global operates worldwide.

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. operates global commodity and financial products marketplaces.  The Company operates electronic energy markets and soft commodity exchanges as well.  ICE offers access to contracts based on crude oil and refined products, natural gas, power and emissions, as well as agricultural commodities including cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, and sugar.

CME Group Inc. operates a derivatives exchange that trades futures contracts and options on futures, interest rates, stock indexes, foreign exchange and commodities.  The Exchange brings together buyers and sellers of derivatives products on its trading floors, electronic trading platform, and through privately negotiated transactions that it clears.

The Charles Schwab Corporation provides a variety of financial services to individual investors, independent investment managers, retirement plans, and institutions.  The Company provides its clients with securities brokerage, banking, and related financial services through offices in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United Kingdom.

Moody's Corporation is a credit rating, research, and risk analysis firm.  The Company provides credit ratings and related research, data and analytical tools, quantitative credit risk measures, risk scoring software, and credit portfolio management solutions and securities pricing software and valuation models.

State Street Corporation services institutional investors and manages financial assets worldwide.  The Company's products and services include custody, accounting, administration, daily pricing, international exchange services, cash management, financial asset management, securities lending, and investment advisory services.

Morgan Stanley, a bank holding company, provides diversified financial services on a worldwide basis.  The Company operates a global securities business which serves individual and institutional investors and investment banking clients. Morgan Stanley also operates a global asset management business.

Macquarie Group Ltd. offers banking, financial advisory, investment and funds management services.  The Company offers financial advice, cash management, wealth management and private banking, life insurance, securities brokerage, corporate debt financing, real estate funds management, real estate development financing, investment funds management, and foreign exchange services.

London Stock Exchange Group plc is the United Kingdom's primary stock exchange. The LSE provides markets that facilitate the raising of capital and the trading of corporate securities, access to a trading environment, as well as real-time pricing and reference information services worldwide.  Market coverage includes equities, derivatives and fixed-interest securities.

London Stock Exchange Group plc is the United Kingdom's primary stock exchange. The LSE provides markets that facilitate the raising of capital and the trading of corporate securities, access to a trading environment, as well as real-time pricing and reference information services worldwide. Market coverage includes equities, derivatives and fixed-interest securities.

London Stock Exchange Group PL (LNSTY US)

Banco BTG Pactual S/A. provides financial services. The Company offers asset and wealth management, investment banking, trading, corporate lending, sales, and other related solutions. Banco BTG Pactual serves customers in Brazil.

CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, investment banking, asset management, and investment consulting services.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Limited owns and operates the stock exchange, futures exchange, and their related clearing houses in Hong Kong.  The Company provides the trading platforms for a range of cash and derivatives products and the facilities for processing trades.

Deutsche Boerse AG provides a variety of stock exchange introduction, trading, and operational services to institutions and private investors. The Company offers electronic trading systems for buying and selling of securities on stock exchanges in Europe.  Deutsche Boerse offers indices such as DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and XTF, as well as trading in options and futures.

3i Group plc is an international investor focused on private equity, infrastructure and debt management. The Company's investments are located across multiple continents through local investment teams in Europe, Asia and North America.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited provides financial services. The Company offers securities trading, clearing, settlement and depository, and market data services. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing serves customers worldwide.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKXCY US)

KKR & Co. Inc. operates as an investment firm. The Company manages investments such as private equity, energy, infrastructure, real estate, credit strategies, and hedge funds. KKR & Co serves clients worldwide.

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KKR & Co (KKR US)

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Apr) - Kokusai Electric, HD Hyundai Marine, Langham, Jastec, JSR, Best World

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Langham Hospitality, IntelliCentrics, Jastec, JSR, Best World, Isetan) and ECM (Kokusai...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

Kokusai’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and...

Arun George

KKR/Greenvolt: Low Chances of Bump-Up

KKR is pursuing the acquisition and delisting of Greenvolt-Energias Renovaveis at a price that is seen as not generous, but core shareholders are...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR/Smart Metering Systems: Agreed Cheap Offer

KKR takes advantage of depressed share price of Smart Metering Systems, offering a 40% premium. Counteroffer and/or sweetening is possible....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Education Sector YTD: Volatility in Public Equities, PE Stalking with Take Private Offers

Explore 2023's EdTech trends in our report: Duolingo's rise, Chegg's AI pivot, market volatility, and funding shifts. Essential insights for...

Anik Siwach

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Apr) - Kokusai Electric, HD Hyundai Marine, Langham, Jastec, JSR, Best World

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Langham Hospitality, IntelliCentrics, Jastec, JSR, Best World, Isetan) and ECM (Kokusai...

Arun George

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The US$4.8 Billion Lock up Expiry

Kokusai’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 71% of outstanding shares expires on 22 April. Kokusai trades at a material premium to peer multiples and...

Arun George

KKR/Greenvolt: Low Chances of Bump-Up

​KKR is pursuing the acquisition and delisting of Greenvolt-Energias Renovaveis at a price that is seen as not generous, but core shareholders are...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

KKR/Smart Metering Systems: Agreed Cheap Offer

​KKR takes advantage of depressed share price of Smart Metering Systems, offering a 40% premium. Counteroffer and/or sweetening is possible....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Education Sector YTD: Volatility in Public Equities, PE Stalking with Take Private Offers

Explore 2023's EdTech trends in our report: Duolingo's rise, Chegg's AI pivot, market volatility, and funding shifts. Essential insights for...

Anik Siwach

KKR is pursuing the acquisition and delisting of Greenvolt-Energias Renovaveis at a price that is seen as not generous, but core shareholders are...

KKR takes advantage of depressed share price of Smart Metering Systems, offering a 40% premium. Counteroffer and/or sweetening is possible....