Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>’s 2Q22 normalized OP of ¥46.2bn from ¥500.3bn revenue was slightly above the consensus OP of ¥45.9bn from ¥500.8bn revenue.</li>
<li>Kirin raised its 2022 revenue and normalized OP guidance by ¥40.0bn and ¥6.0bn respectively, due to the progress of profit improvement measures mainly in Coke-Northeast and Kyowa Kirin in 1H22.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Kirin is due ¥22.4bn from MEHL for the Myanmar JV. Even though this is not the fair value, receiving at least something is a bonus in our opinion.</li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s 2Q22 normalized OP of ¥46.2bn from ¥500.3bn revenue was slightly above the consensus OP of ¥45.9bn from ¥500.8bn revenue.
Kirin raised its 2022 revenue and normalized OP guidance by ¥40.0bn and ¥6.0bn respectively, due to the progress of profit improvement measures mainly in Coke-Northeast and Kyowa Kirin in 1H22.
Meanwhile, Kirin is due ¥22.4bn from MEHL for the Myanmar JV. Even though this is not the fair value, receiving at least something is a bonus in our opinion.


Kirin: With Myanmar in the Rear-View Mirror, an Additional 30% Upside Is Quite Possible

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador Inc (EMP PM)</a> is pre-marketing a secondary listing on the SGX IPO by raising US$300-500 million, according to press reports. </li>
<li>Emperador has established a track record of decent revenue growth, profitability and cash generation over the years. </li>
<li>While the fundamentals are solid the valuation looks full in comparison to peers and historical trading ranges. </li>
</ul>



Emperador Inc (EMP PM) is pre-marketing a secondary listing on the SGX IPO by raising US$300-500 million, according to press reports. 
Emperador has established a track record of decent revenue growth, profitability and cash generation over the years. 
While the fundamentals are solid the valuation looks full in comparison to peers and historical trading ranges. 


Emperador SGX Secondary Listing: Scotch, Not so Neat

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> announced yesterday that it will transfer its stake in the Myanmar business (51% of share capital) to its JV partner MEHL, via a share buyback of ¥22.4bn.</li>
<li>Having disposed most of the other underperforming assets during 2018-21, the Myanmar business was the main issue holding back Kirin's share price performance.</li>
<li>With the Myanmar issue resolved better than anticipated, it seems like the right time for Kirin to get a move on.</li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) announced yesterday that it will transfer its stake in the Myanmar business (51% of share capital) to its JV partner MEHL, via a share buyback of ¥22.4bn.
Having disposed most of the other underperforming assets during 2018-21, the Myanmar business was the main issue holding back Kirin's share price performance.
With the Myanmar issue resolved better than anticipated, it seems like the right time for Kirin to get a move on.


Kirin Sells The Myanmar JV to MEHL: Not a Fair Valuation But Getting At Least Some Money Is a Bonus

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-s-beerco-ipo-third-time-s-the-charm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:71795" rel="noopener">ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?</a>, we look at the latest developments and results. </li>
<li>The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo's issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests a valuation range of US$5.0-5.2 billion. </li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion, according to press reports.
In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?, we look at the latest developments and results. 
The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo's issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests a valuation range of US$5.0-5.2 billion. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion (vs US$2 billion previously), according to press reports. </li>
<li>In 1HFY2022, the group revenue returned to growth due to Vietnam. The easing of restrictions in Thailand should boost volumes in 2HFY2022.  </li>
<li>Creditably despite rising raw material costs, the margins remained steady helped by forward buying contracts. However, the unwinding of the forward contracts will likely lead to margin pressures in FY2023.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion (vs US$2 billion previously), according to press reports. 
In 1HFY2022, the group revenue returned to growth due to Vietnam. The easing of restrictions in Thailand should boost volumes in 2HFY2022.  
Creditably despite rising raw material costs, the margins remained steady helped by forward buying contracts. However, the unwinding of the forward contracts will likely lead to margin pressures in FY2023.


ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?

Japan

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

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Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

Kirin: With Myanmar in the Rear-View Mirror, an Additional 30% Upside Is Quite Possible

With multiple expansion and upgrades to consensus estimates still possible, we continue to remain bullish on Kirin with an additional upside target...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Emperador SGX Secondary Listing: Scotch, Not so Neat

Emperador is pre-marketing a secondary listing on the SGX IPO by raising US$300-500m. While the fundamentals are solid the valuation looks full in...

Arun George

Kirin Sells The Myanmar JV to MEHL: Not a Fair Valuation But Getting At Least Some Money Is a Bonus

Having disposed most of the underperforming assets, the Myanmar business was the main issue holding back Kirin's share price performance. With the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What's It Worth?

The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo's issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests...

Arun George

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?

BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion. In this note, we look at the latest set of results and highlight the key...

Arun George

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