Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> has signed a Scheme Implementation Deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> for the acquisition of 100% of Blackmores by way of a scheme of arrangement.</li>
<li>The A$95/share offer is a 23.7% premium to the last close and is at least a 20% premium to most other VWAPs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> intends to pay a fully-franked special dividend of A$3.34/share. This will enable eligible shareholders to benefit from franking credits of A$1.43/share.</li>
</ul>



Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) has signed a Scheme Implementation Deed with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) for the acquisition of 100% of Blackmores by way of a scheme of arrangement.
The A$95/share offer is a 23.7% premium to the last close and is at least a 20% premium to most other VWAPs.

Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) intends to pay a fully-franked special dividend of A$3.34/share. This will enable eligible shareholders to benefit from franking credits of A$1.43/share.


Blackmores (BKL AU) Signs SID with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zjld-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36734:1" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$10.82 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$5.0 billion (US$636 million). The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zjld-group-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99438" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zjld-group-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99455" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zjld-group-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:100252" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>We expect a muted debut as A Share baijiu peers have derated since the release of the prospectus. The shares remain attractive at the IPO price. </li>
</ul>



ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) priced its IPO at HK$10.82 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$5.0 billion (US$636 million). The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in ZJLD Group IPO: The Bull Case, ZJLD Group IPO: The Bear Case and ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation Insights. 
We expect a muted debut as A Share baijiu peers have derated since the release of the prospectus. The shares remain attractive at the IPO price. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zjld-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36734:1" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK)</a> has launched its HKEx listing at HK$10.78-12.98 per share to raise up to US$811 million. Books are open from 17 to 20 April.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zjld-group-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99438" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zjld-group-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99455" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zjld-group-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99966" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation First Look</a>. </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO. </li>
</ul>



ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK) has launched its HKEx listing at HK$10.78-12.98 per share to raise up to US$811 million. Books are open from 17 to 20 April.
We previously discussed the IPO in ZJLD Group IPO: The Bull Case, ZJLD Group IPO: The Bear Case and ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation First Look. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zjld-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36734:1" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK)</a>, a baijiu company in China, is set to launch an HKEx IPO to raise US$800-900 million next week, according to press reports.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zjld-group-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99438" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zjld-group-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99455" rel="noopener">ZJLD Group IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at ZJLD's potential valuation range. </li>
</ul>



ZJLD Group (ZJLD HK), a baijiu company in China, is set to launch an HKEx IPO to raise US$800-900 million next week, according to press reports.
We previously discussed the IPO in ZJLD Group IPO: The Bull Case and ZJLD Group IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at ZJLD's potential valuation range. 


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>A trade idea involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> from a Holdco perspective, which we suggested last year outperformed Topix by more than 30% in the first 9 months of 2022.</li>
<li>Since November 2022, Kirin has underperformed Topix by 18% (driven by input cost inflation) to push the Holdco discount yet again to an attractive level.</li>
<li>The price hike announcement yesterday could change the cost inflation narrative and help Kirin to keep on unwinding the Holdco discount.</li>
</ul>


A trade idea involving Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) from a Holdco perspective, which we suggested last year outperformed Topix by more than 30% in the first 9 months of 2022.
Since November 2022, Kirin has underperformed Topix by 18% (driven by input cost inflation) to push the Holdco discount yet again to an attractive level.
The price hike announcement yesterday could change the cost inflation narrative and help Kirin to keep on unwinding the Holdco discount.


Kirin’s Holdco Discount Could Keep Unwinding After The Price Hikes Announcement

Japan

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

ITO EN, LTD. produces various types of Japanese tea and canned beverages.

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. produces beer and other beverages including non-alcoholic drinks. The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

Sapporo Holdings Ltd produces and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company's products include beer, wine, brandy, whiskey, imported beer, soft drinks, juice, coffee, and tea.  SAPPORO HOLDINGS also operates real estate businesses.

Coca Cola Bottlers Japan produces and sells Coca-Cola, other beverages and foods through subsidiaries. The company also operates logistics, auto vending machine, and other businesses.

TAKARA HOLDINGS INC. produces distilled spirits, sake, soft drinks, and cooking wine.  The Company also sells alcoholic beverages under the brand names, Shouchikubai, Takara Can Chuhai, and Takara Shochu.

HOKKAIDO COCA-COLA BOTTLING CO., LTD. produces soft and cold canned drinks in Hokkaido.

YOMEISHU SEIZO CO., LTD. produces medicinal alcoholic drinks under the Yomeishu brand name.  The Company also produces distilled spirits, rice wine, and base alcohol.

Oenon Holdings, Inc. is a producer of rice wine, liquor and seasoning.  The Company produces mainly sake and shochu.

KIKKOMAN CORPORATION produces and markets soy sauce, alcoholic beverages, and other food products.  The Company has marketing rights for Del Monte brand products outside of the United States.  Kikkoman also operates restaurants in Japan and other countries.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces and distributes beer products.  The Company markets its products throughout China and around the world under the Tsingtao Beer brand name.

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited produces a wide range of branded beer and spirits in Thailand.

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

Molson Coors Brewing Company operates as a brewing company. The Company brews and produces beer. Molson Coors Brewing serves customers worldwide.

Coca-Cola Bottling Company Consolidated operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and distributes nonalcoholic beverages such as energy drinks, bottled water, tea, ready-to-drink coffee, enhanced water, juices, and sports drinks.

Coca Cola Bottling Co. Consolidated (COKE US)

Coca-Cola HBC AG is one of the bottlers in the Coca-Cola system, operating plants in Europe, Africa, and Asia. The Company produces, sells, and distributes a wide range of non-alcoholic beverages, including sparkling, juice, water, sport, energy, tea, and coffee.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JSC Ltd. operates as a wine company. The Company produces and distributes wine, liquor, and other related products.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JS (603369 CH)

Molson Coors Canada Inc. is the principal operating unit of Molson Coors Brewing Company's business operations in Canada.

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. produces and markets distilled spirits and wine.

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

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Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

Blackmores (BKL AU) Signs SID with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)

Blackmores has signed a SID with Kirin. The A$95/share offer is a 23.7% premium to last close and values Blackmores at A$1.85bn. A fully-franked...

Brian Freitas

ZJLD Group IPO: Trading Debut

We expect a muted debut as A Share baijiu peers have derated since the release of the prospectus. The shares remain attractive at the IPO price.

Arun George

ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of HK$10.78-12.98 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

ZJLD Group IPO: Valuation First Look

ZJLD is set to launch an HKEx IPO to raise US$800-900 million next week. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at ZJLD's...

Arun George

Kirin’s Holdco Discount Could Keep Unwinding After The Price Hikes Announcement

With price hikes possibly turning around the recent negative sentiment, we think the Kirin Holdco trade could yet again get going in the short-term...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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