Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Objective Analysis has released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, calling for growth of below 5%</li>
<li>Other forecasters currently call for 11% to 17% growth, which would require another super cycle to accomplish</li>
<li>We do not see any event that will drive a 2024 super cycle, even with the current rapid adoption of AI in the data center</li>
</ul>


Objective Analysis has released its 2024 semiconductor forecast, calling for growth of below 5%
Other forecasters currently call for 11% to 17% growth, which would require another super cycle to accomplish
We do not see any event that will drive a 2024 super cycle, even with the current rapid adoption of AI in the data center


2024 High Conviction: Low Semiconductor Growth

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Overall, it was a strong week for Taiwan Tech. TSMC and Mediatek showed strong performances, as well as key names we like such as Yageo and Himax.</li>
<li>AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) </a>performed well.</li>
<li>According to insight provider Patrick Liao, MediaTek WiFi 7 chip competition is likely to become fierce in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Overall, it was a strong week for Taiwan Tech. TSMC and Mediatek showed strong performances, as well as key names we like such as Yageo and Himax.
AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) performed well.
According to insight provider Patrick Liao, MediaTek WiFi 7 chip competition is likely to become fierce in 2024.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us</li>
<li>Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side</li>
<li>Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!</li>
</ul>


9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us
Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side
Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!


WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

<ul>
<li>Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery</li>
<li>Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. </li>
</ul>


Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range
2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery
Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. 


<ul>
<li>Q323 DRAM revenues amounted to $13.210 billion, up a robust 19.25% QoQ, but still down 27% from the year-ago period.</li>
<li>In the case of NAND, Q323 revenues amounted to $9.3 billion, up 4% QoQ but down 31.7% YoY.</li>
<li>All memory players remain loss making. We don't anticipate a return to black until Q224.</li>
</ul>


Q323 DRAM revenues amounted to $13.210 billion, up a robust 19.25% QoQ, but still down 27% from the year-ago period.
In the case of NAND, Q323 revenues amounted to $9.3 billion, up 4% QoQ but down 31.7% YoY.
All memory players remain loss making. We don't anticipate a return to black until Q224.


Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP)

2024 High Conviction: Low Semiconductor Growth

2024 semiconductor revenue growth will be muted despite forecasts predicting strong growth. This post explains why the year will not see another...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AI Plays Weak Despite Strong Taiwan Tech Market Performance

AI-Related Taiwan plays showed relative weakness. This weakness interestingly happened during a week when NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) performed well.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

WSTS forecast for 13.1% semi growth in 2024 assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. This is an unlikely scenario and not at all the vibe we...

William Keating

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

Q323 Memory Segment Review, Outlook

Q323 DRAM revenue $13.2 billion, +19.25% QoQ, but -27% YoY. Q323 NAND revenues $9.3 billion, +4% QoQ but -31.7% YoY. All memory players remain loss...

William Keating

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