Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Evergreen reported strong Q2 results, with revenue and margins both up sharply</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd reported stagnant revenue and lower core profit margins</li>
<li>Divergent carrier performance reinforces our view that management skill matters</li>
</ul>


Evergreen reported strong Q2 results, with revenue and margins both up sharply
Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd reported stagnant revenue and lower core profit margins
Divergent carrier performance reinforces our view that management skill matters


More Q224 Container Carrier Results: Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd Show Sharply Diverging Results

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Container ships are standardized, and fleets can be "market to market" values</li>
<li>This approach suggests TS Lines' equity could be worth &gt; US$2.0 bn</li>
<li>However, there are some caveats that come with this valuation approach</li>
</ul>


Container ships are standardized, and fleets can be "market to market" values
This approach suggests TS Lines' equity could be worth &gt; US$2.0 bn
However, there are some caveats that come with this valuation approach


TS Lines Pre-IPO: Adjusted Book Value Approach Yields Estimated Equity Valuation of US$1.96-2.06 Bn

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite rising spot rates, Maersk Q224 revenue and EBITDA both fell Y/Y</li>
<li>After lifting pessimistic guidance in June, Maersk upped FY24 targets again</li>
<li>We believe Maersk probably moved to limit spot exposure a year ago</li>
</ul>


Despite rising spot rates, Maersk Q224 revenue and EBITDA both fell Y/Y
After lifting pessimistic guidance in June, Maersk upped FY24 targets again
We believe Maersk probably moved to limit spot exposure a year ago


Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates

<ul>
<li>Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong</li>
<li>But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows</li>
<li>We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade </li>
</ul>


Overall, June container throughput growth and average container rates strong
But spot rates have begun to wobble recently, and 2025 uncertainty grows
We have decided to close our suggested container shipping pair trade 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-yusen-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12285:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)</a> today announced an upward revision of H1 and full-year guidance. It was a dramatic increase.</li>
<li>The breakdown of the OP and RP numbers suggests a huge gain in containers in Q1 and into Q2. The breakdown of revenue and OP changes suggested substantial H2 conservatism.</li>
<li>On a capital-adjusted basis, Nippon Yusen is now slightly cheap vs its domestic peers and has shown a willingness to spend its excess cash on buybacks. Expect more.</li>
</ul>



Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) today announced an upward revision of H1 and full-year guidance. It was a dramatic increase.
The breakdown of the OP and RP numbers suggests a huge gain in containers in Q1 and into Q2. The breakdown of revenue and OP changes suggested substantial H2 conservatism.
On a capital-adjusted basis, Nippon Yusen is now slightly cheap vs its domestic peers and has shown a willingness to spend its excess cash on buybacks. Expect more.


Nippon Yusen (9101) - Guidance Revision Up Still Conservative, Means More Capital Return Eventually

Japan

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

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Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)

More Q224 Container Carrier Results: Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd Show Sharply Diverging Results

Evergreen Marine's Q2 results far outpaced the results of both Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk. The Taiwanese carrier's results over the past 2.5 years...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines Pre-IPO: Adjusted Book Value Approach Yields Estimated Equity Valuation of US$1.96-2.06 Bn

Adjusting the book value of TS Lines' fleet based on recent newbuilding prices implies an equity valuation for the regional container carrier of as...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates

If you've read about skyrocketing spot container rates in 2024, you may be surprised to learn that Danish container shipping giant reported Y/Y...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Spot Rates Fall | Closed Pair (July 2024)

In June, price momentum and volume growth remained firm, but in July we've seen some spot rates dip. Mainly due to share price movements, we have...

Tracking Traffic

Nippon Yusen (9101) - Guidance Revision Up Still Conservative, Means More Capital Return Eventually

Nippon Yusen today set H1 and FY guidance higher. Revenues, OP, RP, and NP all higher with the bulk of the improvement in containers, but the H1/H2...

Travis Lundy

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