Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Cainiao is the largest provider of cross-border e-commerce logistics services globally and a leader in China logistics services, according to CIC.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics ,  Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
Cainiao is the largest provider of cross-border e-commerce logistics services globally and a leader in China logistics services, according to CIC.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Cainiao Pre-IPO - The Postivies - Evolving into a Global Player, Decent Revenue Growth

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we highlighted which division could list. In this note, we will look at Cainiao.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
In our previous note, we highlighted which division could list. In this note, we will look at Cainiao.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 2 - An Early Look at Cainiao, US$10bn+

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Major pressure on net interest income where deposits are growing much faster than loans in the past six months, especially with term deposits, is creating major NIM contraction</li>
<li>Earnings may disappoint based on weakening net interest income, weakening margins, and where the overlay is far higher credit costs; from KRW17bn to KRW59bn in 2 yrs to 2Q23</li>
<li>Operating costs are not helping to support ROA and with a new virtual bank investment in Thailand, costs can remain high; fixing operational risks can also keep costs high.</li>
</ul>


Major pressure on net interest income where deposits are growing much faster than loans in the past six months, especially with term deposits, is creating major NIM contraction
Earnings may disappoint based on weakening net interest income, weakening margins, and where the overlay is far higher credit costs; from KRW17bn to KRW59bn in 2 yrs to 2Q23
Operating costs are not helping to support ROA and with a new virtual bank investment in Thailand, costs can remain high; fixing operational risks can also keep costs high.


KakaoBank - Term Deposits +47% | Net Int Inc/Assets -80bps | Provisions: 10% to 23% of Net Int Inc

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).</li>
<li>The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, <strong>it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up</strong> (<strong>not earlier</strong>).</li>
<li>The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 INDEX WEEKLY did rise last week and is approaching OVERBOUGHT territory based on the current short-term trend pattern (Q3 resistance is at 346).
The current pattern is bearish, but if the market gains momentum and rallies for 2 more weeks, it could reach 357 during the 3rd week up (not earlier).
The alternative scenario, a better fit for this bearish pattern, is that the index starts to pull back this week, or remains weak this week and falls the next.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.</li>
<li>There is one change currently for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio and Game indices. Then there are a couple of changes for the Internet and BBIG indices.</li>
<li>There are four stocks that will have over 2 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers and these stocks could move around announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.
There is one change currently for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio and Game indices. Then there are a couple of changes for the Internet and BBIG indices.
There are four stocks that will have over 2 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers and these stocks could move around announcement of the changes.


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Complete

South Korea

Kakao Corp. provides Internet portal services such as news, free e-mail, and leisure information.  The Company also offers cross-platform mobile messaging application that allows users to exchange messages.

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Kakao Corp (035720 KS)

Cainiao Pre-IPO - The Postivies - Evolving into a Global Player, Decent Revenue Growth

Cainiao Smart Logistics , Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 2 - An Early Look at Cainiao, US$10bn+

Alibaba has confirmed that Cainiao will the first mini-Baba to list on its own. Baba in its filing stated that it obtained HKEX approval for the...

Sumeet Singh

KakaoBank - Term Deposits +47% | Net Int Inc/Assets -80bps | Provisions: 10% to 23% of Net Int Inc

Major net interest income pressure, NIM down sharply in past 6 months. Operating costs not supporting ROA. Credit metrics worsening: LLP from 10%...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Complete

The changes to the index were announced post market close on Friday and will be implemented at the close on Thursday. Given that the changes are...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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P/E

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Cainiao Pre-IPO - The Postivies - Evolving into a Global Player, Decent Revenue Growth

Cainiao Smart Logistics , Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 2 - An Early Look at Cainiao, US$10bn+

Alibaba has confirmed that Cainiao will the first mini-Baba to list on its own. Baba in its filing stated that it obtained HKEX approval for the...

Sumeet Singh

KakaoBank - Term Deposits +47% | Net Int Inc/Assets -80bps | Provisions: 10% to 23% of Net Int Inc

Major net interest income pressure, NIM down sharply in past 6 months. Operating costs not supporting ROA. Credit metrics worsening: LLP from 10%...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT (Or Break-Out Rally?)

​The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...

Nico Rosti

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Complete

The changes to the index were announced post market close on Friday and will be implemented at the close on Thursday. Given that the changes are...

Brian Freitas

The KOSPI 200 Index is approaching Q3/overbought territory, this pattern is bearish, but if the index keeps rallying for 2 more weeks, it could...