Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We screen for Japanese companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Japan equity funds.</li>
<li>Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum: Nissan Motor Corp and Misumi Group</li>
<li>High Positioning coupled with High Momentum: ASICS Corp and Kyushu Railway</li>
</ul>


We screen for Japanese companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Japan equity funds.
Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum: Nissan Motor Corp and Misumi Group
High Positioning coupled with High Momentum: ASICS Corp and Kyushu Railway


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.</li>
<li>Recco or Ascendant for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys (HOLI US)</a>? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12385:1" rel="noopener">Sankyo (6417 JP)</a> is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.</li>
</ul>


The Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service held a press briefing, unveiling the comprehensive prohibition of short selling from the 6th November, until June 30th next year.
Recco or Ascendant for Hollysys (HOLI US)? Ascendant could easily get &gt;50% of shares out, and spill the board. Recco, with no shares held, looks to have a weaker hand. 

Sankyo (6417 JP) is cheap. It will never trade at 20x expected PER because of the nature of the business; right now, on an ex-cash basis, it trades 1.6x ex-cash PER.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> is coming up "cheap" versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> is trading "rich" to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on DG and Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Digital Garage (4819 JP) is coming up "cheap" versus Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP); and Melco International Development (200 HK) is trading "rich" to Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US).
Preceding my comments on DG and Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Digital Garage Looking "Cheap". Melco's Consensus-Missing Results

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is our second Insight into Tobila Systems - the absolute dominator in the niche of fraud/spam call and message filtering services in Japan;</li>
<li>We like the high-quality, unique assets owned by the company, although capital allocation appears to stand out as a wild card in our formula of long-term shareholder-value creation;</li>
<li>At the current level, we would hold the shares firmly and wait patiently for more opportunistic offerings from Mr. Market to accumulate more shares.</li>
</ul>


This is our second Insight into Tobila Systems - the absolute dominator in the niche of fraud/spam call and message filtering services in Japan;
We like the high-quality, unique assets owned by the company, although capital allocation appears to stand out as a wild card in our formula of long-term shareholder-value creation;
At the current level, we would hold the shares firmly and wait patiently for more opportunistic offerings from Mr. Market to accumulate more shares.


<ul>
<li>Kakaku.com Inc. can be a rare species among listed companies in Japan;</li>
<li>We had multiple email exchanges and meetings with the management team for a deep-dive view covering corporate cultural, management style, capital allocation, business model, and competitive strength.</li>
<li>We would wait for a 20%-30% pullback in the share price before looking to add to our position but would certainly remain reluctant to sell any share that we own.</li>
</ul>


Kakaku.com Inc. can be a rare species among listed companies in Japan;
We had multiple email exchanges and meetings with the management team for a deep-dive view covering corporate cultural, management style, capital allocation, business model, and competitive strength.
We would wait for a 20%-30% pullback in the share price before looking to add to our position but would certainly remain reluctant to sell any share that we own.


Japan

Kakaku.com, Inc provides price comparison services and products information through its website.  The Company also provides Internet advertising services.

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Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)

Japan Funds: Extreme Stocks

We screen for Japanese companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Japan equity funds.

Steven Holden

Last Week in Event SPACE: Korea's Short Selling, Hollysys, Sankyo, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Digital Garage Looking "Cheap". Melco's Consensus-Missing Results

I see Melco's discount to NAV at 22% versus a 12-month average of 38%. The NAV discount and implied stub have narrowed nicely since mid-July. For...

David Blennerhassett

Tobila Systems: A Deep-Dive View

High-quality, predictable, high-growth business with slightly questionable capital allocation; shares modestly overvalued; we would hold and wait.

Steven Chen

Kakaku.com Inc.: A Deep-Dive View

Kakaku.com Inc. has impressed us as a rare species compared to many other Japanese companies and is probably the most investable publicly-traded...

Steven Chen

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