Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearly two-thirds of the way through the review period, we see nine potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>The potential adds are dominated by the Materials sector while the potential deletions are mainly from the Consumer Discretionary sector.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.14-12 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.1-30 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


Nearly two-thirds of the way through the review period, we see nine potential changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
The potential adds are dominated by the Materials sector while the potential deletions are mainly from the Consumer Discretionary sector.
The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.14-12 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 3.1-30 days of ADV.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Increasing Number of Changes in December

<ul>
<li>There were a couple of ad hoc rebalances in Korea last week for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY)</a>. </li>
<li>Coming Friday will mark the end of the review period for the next rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, LQ45, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP</a> as well as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50</a> June implementation.</li>
<li>With Japan indices moving higher, the largest inflows went into ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and other local/global indices.</li>
</ul>


There were a couple of ad hoc rebalances in Korea last week for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY). 
Coming Friday will mark the end of the review period for the next rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, LQ45, PCOMP as well as the SET50 June implementation.
With Japan indices moving higher, the largest inflows went into ETFs tracking the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and other local/global indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, KOSPI2, New Deal, SET50, MOG Digitech, Syngenta IPO

<ul>
<li>Just over a quarter of the way through the review period, we see six changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are close adds at the current time and a move higher can take them into inclusion zone leading to more deletions.</li>
<li>While there is little to no short interest on the potential inclusions, short interest on the potential deletions ranges from 4.3-12.2 days of ADV and 0.5-3.5% of free float.</li>
</ul>


Just over a quarter of the way through the review period, we see six changes for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
There are a few stocks that are close adds at the current time and a move higher can take them into inclusion zone leading to more deletions.
While there is little to no short interest on the potential inclusions, short interest on the potential deletions ranges from 4.3-12.2 days of ADV and 0.5-3.5% of free float.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy December Rebalance

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Dongwon Industries’ float rate is less than 10% (1 - 63.15% - 27.65% = 9.20%), which makes it ineligible for KOSPI 200. KRX will reflect this in the June review.</li>
<li>The passive outflow size due to K200 deletion is expected to be about 50 billion won, which will cause an impact of about 28x ADTV.</li>
<li>Considering this deletion has not been sufficiently exposed in the market, the actual price impact may be even more significant and preemptive.</li>
</ul>


Dongwon Industries’ float rate is less than 10% (1 - 63.15% - 27.65% = 9.20%), which makes it ineligible for KOSPI 200. KRX will reflect this in the June review.
The passive outflow size due to K200 deletion is expected to be about 50 billion won, which will cause an impact of about 28x ADTV.
Considering this deletion has not been sufficiently exposed in the market, the actual price impact may be even more significant and preemptive.


Aggressive Shorting on Dongwon Industries, Which Has Not Been Noticed as a K200 Deletion

<ul>
<li>Korea FSC will accept financial institutions' LOC and LPs' investment performance agreements as certifying documents for securing funds. This revision will be effective right from April 1 this year.</li>
<li>The impact from a preemptive trading perspective is likely to be significant. Additional stake purchases through tender offers will increase more aggressively, particularly when purchasing shares from the majority shareholder.</li>
<li>We should first pay attention to companies where private equity (PE) is the largest shareholder whose stake is relatively low (less than 50%): Hugel, Hana Tour Service, &amp; Hanssem</li>
</ul>


Korea FSC will accept financial institutions' LOC and LPs' investment performance agreements as certifying documents for securing funds. This revision will be effective right from April 1 this year.
The impact from a preemptive trading perspective is likely to be significant. Additional stake purchases through tender offers will increase more aggressively, particularly when purchasing shares from the majority shareholder.
We should first pay attention to companies where private equity (PE) is the largest shareholder whose stake is relatively low (less than 50%): Hugel, Hana Tour Service, &amp; Hanssem


Korea FSC Officially Eases a Major Hurdle for a Tender Offer: Names to Watch

South Korea

K Car Co., Ltd. retails used automobiles. The Company distributes sedans, commercial vehicles, light trucks, utility vehicles, used vehicles, and other related automobiles. K Car markets its products throughout South Korea.

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K Car (381970 KS)

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Increasing Number of Changes in December

Two-thirds through the review period, there could be 9 changes a side for the KOSPI200 in Dec. Most of the changes are high probability and the...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, KOSPI2, New Deal, SET50, MOG Digitech, Syngenta IPO

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy December Rebalance

We currently see 6 changes for the KOSPI200 in December. The potential adds (mostly Materials) have been running up while the potential deletes...

Brian Freitas

Aggressive Shorting on Dongwon Industries, Which Has Not Been Noticed as a K200 Deletion

This post presents the shorting opportunity on Dongwon Industries, which will likely be deleted in the KOSPI 200 June review, as its free-float...

Sanghyun Park

Korea FSC Officially Eases a Major Hurdle for a Tender Offer: Names to Watch

This post summarizes Korea FSC's official statement about easing the funding capacity requirement for a tender offer and provides the names which...

Sanghyun Park

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