External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Pizza category has a tumultuous history</li><li>It has faced significant challenges over the past few quarters (compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chicken) due to three reasons: (1) its price-sensitive nature—deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past in this category, (2) hyper-competition from regional and local players, as the mainstream pizza brands earn gross margins of 75%+, which enables these players to play the pricing game, or at least provide better quality than national players at a similar price, (3) increased downgrading to other QSR offerings/value pizza in the context of hyperinflation since this category has a higher average order value of Rs 450-500, and (4) lack of tangible breakthrough innovation (e.g cheese burst pizza) which can uplift the SSSG</li><li>We believe the latter issues (specifically points 3 and 4) shall fade away in the medium term, as Jubilant Foodworks (Jubi) has made substantial efforts to tackle these challenges.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Pizza category has a tumultuous historyIt has faced significant challenges over the past few quarters (compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chicken) due to three reasons: (1) its price-sensitive nature—deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past in this category, (2) hyper-competition from regional and local players, as the mainstream pizza brands earn gross margins of 75%+, which enables these players to play the pricing game, or at least provide better quality than national players at a similar price, (3) increased downgrading to other QSR offerings/value pizza in the context of hyperinflation since this category has a higher average order value of Rs 450-500, and (4) lack of tangible breakthrough innovation (e.g cheese burst pizza) which can uplift the SSSGWe believe the latter issues (specifically points 3 and 4) shall fade away in the medium term, as Jubilant Foodworks (Jubi) has made substantial efforts to tackle these challenges.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant Foodworks: On the Verge of a Turnaround. Upgrade to ADD

<ul><li>JUBI 4QFY24 print came below our estimates, although it surprised on the Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) front</li><li>SSS decline of 2% was ahead of our estimate owing to better-than-expected recovery in the delivery channel, whereas the dine-in channel continues to struggle</li><li>We continue to maintain a REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 460 (30x FY26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA) as current rich valuations are more than factoring in c300bps margin recovery over FY24-26 (Pre IND AS EBITDA margin expected to move from 12.6% in FY24 to 15.5% in FY26), courtesy commencement of Bangalore commissary (saving in freight costs), supply chain related savings (increased use of EV and reduction in petrol/ diesel price) and cost optimization initiatives (Project Vijay)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JUBI 4QFY24 print came below our estimates, although it surprised on the Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) frontSSS decline of 2% was ahead of our estimate owing to better-than-expected recovery in the delivery channel, whereas the dine-in channel continues to struggleWe continue to maintain a REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 460 (30x FY26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA) as current rich valuations are more than factoring in c300bps margin recovery over FY24-26 (Pre IND AS EBITDA margin expected to move from 12.6% in FY24 to 15.5% in FY26), courtesy commencement of Bangalore commissary (saving in freight costs), supply chain related savings (increased use of EV and reduction in petrol/ diesel price) and cost optimization initiatives (Project Vijay)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant FoodWorks (4QFY24): SSSG Recovery at the Cost of Margins. Maintain REDUCE

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM)</a> is a play on F&amp;B normalizing in the Philippines.  On our numbers, it trades at a 12.9x PE for FY22 and 10x for FY23.</li>
<li>Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) peers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domino-s-pizza-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6436:1" rel="noopener">Domino's Pizza (DPZ US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a> trade at multiples of 39x and 59x fwd PE, making Shakey's an extremely cheap stock. </li>
<li>Versus the current multiple of 7.9 peso/share, we believe the stock can trade up to 30x PE FY23 implying a 24 peso/share price (200% upside).</li>
</ul>



Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) is a play on F&amp;B normalizing in the Philippines.  On our numbers, it trades at a 12.9x PE for FY22 and 10x for FY23.
Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) peers like Domino's Pizza (DPZ US) and Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) trade at multiples of 39x and 59x fwd PE, making Shakey's an extremely cheap stock. 
Versus the current multiple of 7.9 peso/share, we believe the stock can trade up to 30x PE FY23 implying a 24 peso/share price (200% upside).


Shakey's Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a> announced the departure of its CEO Mr Pratik Pota. </li>
<li>The timing of departure coupled with recent disappointment around disclosures is making the market nervous. </li>
<li>As the "sea" gets stormy thanks to high food inflation and pressured "Dine-Ins", who would be JUBI's new captain is the key. </li>
</ul>



Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) announced the departure of its CEO Mr Pratik Pota. 
The timing of departure coupled with recent disappointment around disclosures is making the market nervous. 
As the "sea" gets stormy thanks to high food inflation and pressured "Dine-Ins", who would be JUBI's new captain is the key. 


Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) | Anyone Can Hold the Helm when the Sea Is CALM

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onJubilant FoodWorks JUBI concall highlighted the growth trajectory and plans for DP Eurasia and Bangladesh.</li><li>JUBI recently increased stake in Dp Eurasia to 94% while it had increased stake in Bangladesh to 100% in 2022.</li><li>The Turkish business presents an attractive long-term prospect driven by geographical expansion (addition of 560 stores in medium term), 51% market share , strong brand recall, the expanding COFFY network, and a margin-accretive franchise model that reduces store operating costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onJubilant FoodWorks JUBI concall highlighted the growth trajectory and plans for DP Eurasia and Bangladesh.JUBI recently increased stake in Dp Eurasia to 94% while it had increased stake in Bangladesh to 100% in 2022.The Turkish business presents an attractive long-term prospect driven by geographical expansion (addition of 560 stores in medium term), 51% market share , strong brand recall, the expanding COFFY network, and a margin-accretive franchise model that reduces store operating costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant FoodWorks (JUBI IN) - Turkey Attraction Marred by Currency Issues

India

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. owns and operates fast food chains. The Company offers donuts, baked goods, coffee, bagels, muffin, fruit milkshakes, smoothies, tea, sandwiches, pizza, and beverages. Jubilant Foodworks serves its products to customers throughout India.

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Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)

Jubilant Foodworks: On the Verge of a Turnaround. Upgrade to ADD

We believe the latter issues (specifically points 3 and 4) shall fade away in the medium term, as Jubilant Foodworks (Jubi) has made substantial...

HDFC Securities

Jubilant FoodWorks (4QFY24): SSSG Recovery at the Cost of Margins. Maintain REDUCE

SSS decline of 2% was ahead of our estimate owing to better-than-expected recovery in the delivery channel, whereas the dine-in channel continues...

HDFC Securities

Shakey's Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22

Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) is a play on F&B normalizing in the Philippines. On our numbers, it trades at a 12x PE for FY22 and 10x...

Sameer Taneja