External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Our ground checks suggest that Domino's India has recently introduced a range of Flavoured Cheese Burst Pizzas and stuffed garlic bread (a top-selling side dish) across the country, which we believe was the need of the hour</li><li>While the Cheese Burst launch in 2007 helped Domino's achieve double-digit SSSG growth from FY09 to FY13, largely due to a lower base, there has been limited innovation with this flagship product since then.</li><li>Although Domino's once dominated this value proposition, consumption has gradually normalised due to: (1) waning excitement for Cheese Burst after 15+ years, (2) the overwhelming abundance of cheese reducing its appeal, and (3) competitors offering a similar experience.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our ground checks suggest that Domino's India has recently introduced a range of Flavoured Cheese Burst Pizzas and stuffed garlic bread (a top-selling side dish) across the country, which we believe was the need of the hourWhile the Cheese Burst launch in 2007 helped Domino's achieve double-digit SSSG growth from FY09 to FY13, largely due to a lower base, there has been limited innovation with this flagship product since then.Although Domino's once dominated this value proposition, consumption has gradually normalised due to: (1) waning excitement for Cheese Burst after 15+ years, (2) the overwhelming abundance of cheese reducing its appeal, and (3) competitors offering a similar experience.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant Foodworks: Bursting with Scintillating Flavours. Maintain ADD

<ul><li>The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chicken</li><li>These challenges stem from several factors: (1) The category's price-sensitive nature means that deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past</li><li>(2) Hyper-competition from regional and local players, who can offer better quality at similar prices due to the high gross margins (75%+) of mainstream pizza brands, intensifies the competitive landscape</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chickenThese challenges stem from several factors: (1) The category's price-sensitive nature means that deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past(2) Hyper-competition from regional and local players, who can offer better quality at similar prices due to the high gross margins (75%+) of mainstream pizza brands, intensifies the competitive landscapeContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant Foodworks: Slice of success: new offerings galore! Maintain ADD

<ul><li>The Pizza category has a tumultuous history</li><li>It has faced significant challenges over the past few quarters (compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chicken) due to three reasons: (1) its price-sensitive nature—deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past in this category, (2) hyper-competition from regional and local players, as the mainstream pizza brands earn gross margins of 75%+, which enables these players to play the pricing game, or at least provide better quality than national players at a similar price, (3) increased downgrading to other QSR offerings/value pizza in the context of hyperinflation since this category has a higher average order value of Rs 450-500, and (4) lack of tangible breakthrough innovation (e.g cheese burst pizza) which can uplift the SSSG</li><li>We believe the latter issues (specifically points 3 and 4) shall fade away in the medium term, as Jubilant Foodworks (Jubi) has made substantial efforts to tackle these challenges.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Pizza category has a tumultuous historyIt has faced significant challenges over the past few quarters (compared to other mainstream QSR categories such as burgers and chicken) due to three reasons: (1) its price-sensitive nature—deals and discounts have driven a decent amount of growth for mainstream players in the past in this category, (2) hyper-competition from regional and local players, as the mainstream pizza brands earn gross margins of 75%+, which enables these players to play the pricing game, or at least provide better quality than national players at a similar price, (3) increased downgrading to other QSR offerings/value pizza in the context of hyperinflation since this category has a higher average order value of Rs 450-500, and (4) lack of tangible breakthrough innovation (e.g cheese burst pizza) which can uplift the SSSGWe believe the latter issues (specifically points 3 and 4) shall fade away in the medium term, as Jubilant Foodworks (Jubi) has made substantial efforts to tackle these challenges.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant Foodworks: On the Verge of a Turnaround. Upgrade to ADD

<ul><li>JUBI 4QFY24 print came below our estimates, although it surprised on the Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) front</li><li>SSS decline of 2% was ahead of our estimate owing to better-than-expected recovery in the delivery channel, whereas the dine-in channel continues to struggle</li><li>We continue to maintain a REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 460 (30x FY26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA) as current rich valuations are more than factoring in c300bps margin recovery over FY24-26 (Pre IND AS EBITDA margin expected to move from 12.6% in FY24 to 15.5% in FY26), courtesy commencement of Bangalore commissary (saving in freight costs), supply chain related savings (increased use of EV and reduction in petrol/ diesel price) and cost optimization initiatives (Project Vijay)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JUBI 4QFY24 print came below our estimates, although it surprised on the Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) frontSSS decline of 2% was ahead of our estimate owing to better-than-expected recovery in the delivery channel, whereas the dine-in channel continues to struggleWe continue to maintain a REDUCE rating with a TP of INR 460 (30x FY26 Pre IND-AS EV/EBITDA) as current rich valuations are more than factoring in c300bps margin recovery over FY24-26 (Pre IND AS EBITDA margin expected to move from 12.6% in FY24 to 15.5% in FY26), courtesy commencement of Bangalore commissary (saving in freight costs), supply chain related savings (increased use of EV and reduction in petrol/ diesel price) and cost optimization initiatives (Project Vijay)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jubilant FoodWorks (4QFY24): SSSG Recovery at the Cost of Margins. Maintain REDUCE

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM)</a> is a play on F&amp;B normalizing in the Philippines.  On our numbers, it trades at a 12.9x PE for FY22 and 10x for FY23.</li>
<li>Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) peers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domino-s-pizza-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6436:1" rel="noopener">Domino's Pizza (DPZ US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a> trade at multiples of 39x and 59x fwd PE, making Shakey's an extremely cheap stock. </li>
<li>Versus the current multiple of 7.9 peso/share, we believe the stock can trade up to 30x PE FY23 implying a 24 peso/share price (200% upside).</li>
</ul>



Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) is a play on F&amp;B normalizing in the Philippines.  On our numbers, it trades at a 12.9x PE for FY22 and 10x for FY23.
Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) peers like Domino's Pizza (DPZ US) and Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) trade at multiples of 39x and 59x fwd PE, making Shakey's an extremely cheap stock. 
Versus the current multiple of 7.9 peso/share, we believe the stock can trade up to 30x PE FY23 implying a 24 peso/share price (200% upside).


Shakey's Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22

India

Jubilant Foodworks Ltd. owns and operates fast food chains. The Company offers donuts, baked goods, coffee, bagels, muffin, fruit milkshakes, smoothies, tea, sandwiches, pizza, and beverages. Jubilant Foodworks serves its products to customers throughout India.

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Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)

Jubilant Foodworks: Bursting with Scintillating Flavours. Maintain ADD

Our ground checks suggest that Domino's India has recently introduced a range of Flavoured Cheese Burst Pizzas and stuffed garlic bread (a top...

HDFC Securities

Jubilant Foodworks: Slice of success: new offerings galore! Maintain ADD

The pizza category has experienced a tumultuous history, facing significant challenges over the past few quarters compared to other mainstream QSR...

HDFC Securities

Jubilant Foodworks: On the Verge of a Turnaround. Upgrade to ADD

We believe the latter issues (specifically points 3 and 4) shall fade away in the medium term, as Jubilant Foodworks (Jubi) has made substantial...

HDFC Securities

Jubilant FoodWorks (4QFY24): SSSG Recovery at the Cost of Margins. Maintain REDUCE

SSS decline of 2% was ahead of our estimate owing to better-than-expected recovery in the delivery channel, whereas the dine-in channel continues...

HDFC Securities

Shakey's Pizza: High Conviction Three Bagger, Management Call Provides Superb Guidance For FY22

Shakey's Pizza Asia Ventures (PIZZA PM) is a play on F&B normalizing in the Philippines. On our numbers, it trades at a 12x PE for FY22 and 10x...

Sameer Taneja

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