Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

JSW's Q2/22-23 results continued to disappoint in our view, with very weak profitability due to a plunge in steel prices. Raw material prices remain high. At this pace, Gross Debt/EBITDA may reach 5x at FYE 2022-23. Liquidity is sound, with a large cash position. We revised our FY 2022-23 margin forecast downwards to reflect the weaker than expected operating environment. We are concerned about JSW's large capacity expansion programme and capex plan, which may not be appropriate given the deteriorating market conditions. Peer Tata Steel appears more shielded from adverse raw material costs (thanks to its deeper vertical integration), and is also more conservative in terms of debt management (it has reduced debt by USD 1 bn p.a.) as well as capacity expansion. We do not expect rating pressure in the near term, but remain cautious in the medium term.

  JSW's Q2/22-23 results continued to disappoint in our view, with very weak profitability due to a plunge in steel prices. Raw material prices remain high. At this pace, Gross Debt/EBITDA may reach 5x at FYE 2022-23. Liquidity is sound, with a large cash position. We revised our FY 2022-23 margin forecast downwards to reflect the weaker than expected operating environment.   We are concerned about JSW's large capacity expansion programme and capex plan, which may not be appropriate given the deteriorating market conditions. Peer Tata Steel appears more shielded from adverse raw material costs (thanks to its deeper vertical integration), and is also more conservative in terms of debt management (it has reduced debt by USD 1 bn p.a.) as well as capacity expansion.   We do not expect rating pressure in the near term, but remain cautious in the medium term. 

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2022-23 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6159'>China SCE</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-198'>Reliance Industries</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20776'>UPL Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China SCEJSW Steel LtdReliance IndustriesUPL Ltd

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries, UPL Ltd

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/abm-investama-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>ABM Investama</a></li><li><a href='/entities/agile-property-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Agile Property Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/fosun-international-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Fosun International</a></li><li><a href='/entities/kawasan-industri-jababeka-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Kawasan Industri Jababeka</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:ABM InvestamaAgile Property HoldingsFosun InternationalKawasan Industri JababekaChina Jinmao Holdingsand more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/softbank-group-corp' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Softbank Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/alam-sutera-realty-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Alam Sutera Realty</a></li><li><a href='/entities/cifi-holdings-group-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>CIFI Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/indika-energy-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Indika Energy</a></li><li><a href='/entities/hopson-development-holdings' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Hopson Development</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Softbank GroupAlam Sutera RealtyCIFI HoldingsIndika EnergyHopson Developmentand more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/times-china-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Times China</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/guangzhou-r-f-properties-h' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Guangzhou R&F Properties</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-evergrande-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Evergrande</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Times ChinaChina Jinmao HoldingsGuangzhou R&F PropertiesSunac China HoldingsEvergrandeand more...

India

JSW Steel Limited is an integrated steel producer with manufacturing facilities in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the western state of Maharashtra. The Company produces products including hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils, wire rods, galvanized coils and sheets.

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JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2022-23 Results - Lucror Analytics

JSW's Q2/22-23 results continued to disappoint in our view, with very weak profitability due to a plunge in steel prices. Raw material prices...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries, UPL Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 21 Oct 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 14 Oct 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 07 Oct 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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