Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

While JSW Steel's Q4/23-24 results were soft in our view, the full-year numbers were decent. Operational stats remained robust. The share of value-added products was high and continued to increase. The financial risk profile was unchanged q-o-q, but improved significantly from FYE 2022-23. However, liquidity deteriorated and was barely adequate. We expect a stronger FY 2024-25 with higher revenue and earnings, as the steel operating environment appears to have bottomed out. Steel prices should remain stable, with possible upside. That said, the higher earnings could be offset by an increase in debt to cover the large and growing capex.

  While JSW Steel's Q4/23-24 results were soft in our view, the full-year numbers were decent. Operational stats remained robust. The share of value-added products was high and continued to increase. The financial risk profile was unchanged q-o-q, but improved significantly from FYE 2022-23. However, liquidity deteriorated and was barely adequate.   We expect a stronger FY 2024-25 with higher revenue and earnings, as the steel operating environment appears to have bottomed out. Steel prices should remain stable, with possible upside. That said, the higher earnings could be offset by an increase in debt to cover the large and growing capex. 

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.JSW Steel Ltd

JSW Steel has delivered strong Q2/23-24 results in our view, driven by higher volumes and a recovery in steel prices. The numbers were in line with management's earlier guidance for an improvement in operating environment and steel prices. The financial risk profile is improving, and liquidity is adequate. Steel prices remained the key credit driver. A small price increase has resulted in a significant EBITDA increment, due to the high operating leverage. Based on management's guidance for an improvement in the operating environment and steel prices, we expect better H2/23-24 numbers, with revenues inching up and a larger earnings improvement. Debt will likely remain stable following the merger with JISPL (completed in Q2), and the leverage profile should continue improving on the back of higher earnings.

  JSW Steel has delivered strong Q2/23-24 results in our view, driven by higher volumes and a recovery in steel prices. The numbers were in line with management's earlier guidance for an improvement in operating environment and steel prices. The financial risk profile is improving, and liquidity is adequate.   Steel prices remained the key credit driver. A small price increase has resulted in a significant EBITDA increment, due to the high operating leverage. Based on management's guidance for an improvement in the operating environment and steel prices, we expect better H2/23-24 numbers, with revenues inching up and a larger earnings improvement. Debt will likely remain stable following the merger with JISPL (completed in Q2), and the leverage profile should continue improving on the back of higher earnings. 

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6544'>AAC Technologies Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-198'>Reliance Industries</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.AAC Technologies HoldingsJSW Steel LtdReliance Industries

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-28325'>HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-13359'>Lenovo</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-10946'>Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-2979'>Tata Steel Thailand</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.HPCL-Mittal Energy LtdJSW Steel LtdLenovoLippo Malls Indonesia Retail TrustTata Steel Thailand

Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. (JSPL) manufactures sponge iron, mild steel, and cement. The Company also produces power, conducts mining operations for iron ore and coal, and explores for natural gas and oil. JSPL, with its diverse resources, also contributes to the construction of infrastructure.

Hindustan Zinc Limited specializes in the exploration, mining and smelting of zinc, lead and other non-ferrous metals.  The Company's products include zinc ore, lead zinc concentrate, zinc metal, lead metal, cadmium metal, silver metal and sulfuric acid.

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

Jindal Stainless Ltd. is an integrated steel producer which manufactures a variety of steel products.  The Company's products include stainless steel plates, welded steel tubes, cold rolled strips and seamless tubes. Jindal also manufactures industrial machinery.

Steel Authority of India Limited is an integrated steel manufacturing company. The Company's products include pig iron, steel ingots, liquid steel, alloy steel, special steel, stainless steel, ferro alloys, ERW pipes, spirally welded pipes, and calcium ammonium nitrate.  The Government of India is currently a majority shareholder in the company.

Lloyds Metals and Energy Ltd. manufactures sponge iron.  The Company also operates a cogeneration waste heat recovery plant to recover heat from its kilns.

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. manufactures and exports galvanized steel tubes, galvanized steel pipes, and welded black pipes and tubes.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

JSW Steel Limited is an integrated steel producer with manufacturing facilities in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the western state of Maharashtra. The Company produces products including hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils, wire rods, galvanized coils and sheets.

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JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

While JSW Steel's Q4/23-24 results were soft in our view, the full-year numbers were decent. Operational stats remained robust. The share of...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

JSW Steel has delivered strong Q2/23-24 results in our view, driven by higher volumes and a recovery in steel prices. The numbers were in line...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Reliance Industries

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, JSW Steel Ltd, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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