Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Medical & Biological Laboratories / Event-Driven

On 27th October 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> ("JSR") announced a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4557/tdnet/1892862/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tender Offer</a> to acquire the remaining shares in its 50.8%-owned subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-biological-labs-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12811:1" rel="noopener">Medical &amp; Biological Labs Co (4557 JP)</a> ("MBL") in an all-cash Deal that valued the company at a market cap of ~¥ 23bn (US$218mn). The Offer Price was ¥4400/share in cash. MBL was founded in 1969 as the first manufacturer of antibodies in Japan. Having evolved over time, the company now offers clinical diagnostics and research reagents designed for analysis of proteins and/or genes associated primarily with autoimmune disorders, cancer, gynecological diseases, and infectious diseases. Most importantly, MBL also develops substances that could be used in COVID-19 research and has other COVID-19 related products in its product portfolio such as PCR kits for detecting new coronavirus, Antibody test kits for checking infection history, and Gene extraction kits to extract RNA samples from the upper respiratory tract samples (nasopharyngeal swab samples).Previously, I covered this Deal in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jsr-4185-jp-tender-offer-for-medical-biological-labs-4557-jp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44617" rel="noopener">JSR (4185 JP) Tender Offer for Medical &amp; Biological Labs (4557 JP)</a>. The Offer came at a premium of 23.8% to the undisturbed price and was below the mid-points of the DCF and Peer Comp Valuation ranges suggested by the Acquirer Advisor. On the other hand, according to Target Advisor's forecasts, the Offer Price translated to EV/Rev and EV/EBITDA multiples of 2.1x, and 9.2x respectively 2021E. Furthermore, the offer was opportunistically timed when MBL's EV/EBITDA (LTM) multiple was close to its 3-year low. Considering these facts and that the company's financial performance could directly benefit from COVID-19 driven demand for testing and research, the Offer Price seemed light. Regardless of the lightness of the Offer, I concluded "there might be enough friendly shareholders to get this Deal over line" and that is what has happened. On Friday after market close, on the day following the end of the Tender Offer Period, both the Acquirer (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4185/tdnet/1912460/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-only</a>) and the Target (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4557/tdnet/1912400/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">J-only</a>) provided updates on the Transaction. What next? Read on.

On 27th October 2020, JSR Corp (4185 JP) ("JSR") announced a Tender Offer to acquire the remaining shares in its 50.8%-owned subsidiary Medical &amp; Biological Labs Co (4557 JP) ("MBL") in an all-cash Deal that valued the company at a market cap of ~¥ 23bn (US$218mn). The Offer Price was ¥4400/share in cash. MBL was founded in 1969 as the first manufacturer of antibodies in Japan. Having evolved over time, the company now offers clinical diagnostics and research reagents designed for analysis of proteins and/or genes associated primarily with autoimmune disorders, cancer, gynecological diseases, and infectious diseases. Most importantly, MBL also develops substances that could be used in COVID-19 research and has other COVID-19 related products in its product portfolio such as PCR kits for detecting new coronavirus, Antibody test kits for checking infection history, and Gene extraction kits to extract RNA samples from the upper respiratory tract samples (nasopharyngeal swab samples).Previously, I covered this Deal in JSR (4185 JP) Tender Offer for Medical &amp; Biological Labs (4557 JP). The Offer came at a premium of 23.8% to the undisturbed price and was below the mid-points of the DCF and Peer Comp Valuation ranges suggested by the Acquirer Advisor. On the other hand, according to Target Advisor's forecasts, the Offer Price translated to EV/Rev and EV/EBITDA multiples of 2.1x, and 9.2x respectively 2021E. Furthermore, the offer was opportunistically timed when MBL's EV/EBITDA (LTM) multiple was close to its 3-year low. Considering these facts and that the company's financial performance could directly benefit from COVID-19 driven demand for testing and research, the Offer Price seemed light. Regardless of the lightness of the Offer, I concluded "there might be enough friendly shareholders to get this Deal over line" and that is what has happened. On Friday after market close, on the day following the end of the Tender Offer Period, both the Acquirer (J-only) and the Target (J-only) provided updates on the Transaction. What next? Read on.

JSR Deal Tender Results for MBL (4557 JP) Imply Faster Squeeze-Out

Today after market-close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> ("JSR") announced a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/4557/tdnet/1892862/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tender Offer</a> to acquire the remaining shares in its 50.8%-owned subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-biological-labs-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12811:1" rel="noopener">Medical &amp; Biological Labs Co (4557 JP)</a> ("MBL").MBL specializes in clinical diagnostics and research reagents and has recently added COVID-19 research/testing-related products to its portfolio. The Offer Price would be ¥4400/share in cash which translates to a deal size of ¥11.2bn (~US$107mn). The Tender Offer Period will be from 28th Oct-2020 to 10th Dec-2020. The Deal has a minimum acceptance condition which requires the Acquirer to reach two-thirds control.More below the fold.

Today after market-close, JSR Corp (4185 JP) ("JSR") announced a Tender Offer to acquire the remaining shares in its 50.8%-owned subsidiary Medical &amp; Biological Labs Co (4557 JP) ("MBL").MBL specializes in clinical diagnostics and research reagents and has recently added COVID-19 research/testing-related products to its portfolio. The Offer Price would be ¥4400/share in cash which translates to a deal size of ¥11.2bn (~US$107mn). The Tender Offer Period will be from 28th Oct-2020 to 10th Dec-2020. The Deal has a minimum acceptance condition which requires the Acquirer to reach two-thirds control.More below the fold. 

JSR (4185 JP) Tender Offer for Medical & Biological Labs (4557 JP)

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Monday's announcements is 'social e-commerce' business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enigmo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7036:1" rel="noopener">Enigmo (3665 JP)</a> and tech and auto materials company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR (4185 JP)</a> which has seen a 35-40% slump in auto-related demand. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/000/original/2020-09-15_05-00-30.png?1600113643" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159000"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/001/original/2020-09-15_05-08-17.png?1600114115" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159001"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr>DAILY STATS<hr>IMPROVING -37% of quarterly results, 61% of annual forecasts/revisions and 40% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. Only 10% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter. Most of the Results metrics were positive for the first time in many months; revisions are still trending negatively.41 Quarterly Results<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
Results Score: 44% Positive / 20% Neutral / 37% Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: +0.9 points</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: +5.8% Quarter YoY / +5.6% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: 1.5ppt</li>
<li>
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 10%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div>23 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 22% Positive / 17% Neutral / 61% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.5 points</li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our 'best' and 'worst' pairing from Monday's announcements is 'social e-commerce' business Enigmo (3665 JP) and tech and auto materials company JSR (4185 JP) which has seen a 35-40% slump in auto-related demand. Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATSIMPROVING -37% of quarterly results, 61% of annual forecasts/revisions and 40% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. Only 10% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter. Most of the Results metrics were positive for the first time in many months; revisions are still trending negatively.41 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 44% Positive / 20% Neutral / 37% Negative

Average Results Score Change: +0.9 points

Average % Change in Revenue: +5.8% Quarter YoY / +5.6% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: 1.5ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 10%
23 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 22% Positive / 17% Neutral / 61% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.5 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​14 - Tsuruha, Kura Sushi, Arcland Sakamoto, JSR

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/934/original/2020-03-27_06-28-40.png?1585258181" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124934"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THURSDAY 26th MARCH - Yesterday saw six companies reporting results, of which only two -<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/optoelectronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9374:1" rel="noopener">Optoelectronics (6664 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fukushima-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3931:1" rel="noopener">Fukushima Printing (7870 JP)</a> - has positive scores. Seventeen companies revised their forecasts, and one made initial forecasts. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 5:11, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jxtg-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">JXTG (5020 JP) </a>being the largest negative-scoring company and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maxvalu-nishinihon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13743:1" rel="noopener">Maxvalu Nishinihon (8287 JP)</a> being unchanged. Of the six companies announcing results, only two had positive outcomes.<div class="content-caption"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/936/original/File%202020-03-27%200%2015%2036.jpeg?1585258841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124936"></figure></div><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div>GOOD NEWS • BAD NEWS - The good news is that the increase in disclosed cases of Covid-19 outside Tokyo has not increased significantly; Tokyo, however, has seen an alarming rise. Forty-seven new cases were confirmed yesterday, taking the total in the metropolis to 259. Tokyo will implement a 'stay-at-home-policy' this weekend. Surrounding prefectures have encouraged their residents not to travel into the city over the weekend. Amusement parks that had reopened last weekend will now close their doors.ODD NEWS - In other 'news', the Sapporo Board of Education is debating whether to allow students to wear face masks that are not white. In the past, many schools have mandated that children can only have black hair, forcing some children whose hair is naturally lighter to dye their hair black to conform to the 'norm'.

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHURSDAY 26th MARCH - Yesterday saw six companies reporting results, of which only two -Optoelectronics (6664 JP) and Fukushima Printing (7870 JP) - has positive scores. Seventeen companies revised their forecasts, and one made initial forecasts. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 5:11, with JXTG (5020 JP) being the largest negative-scoring company and Maxvalu Nishinihon (8287 JP) being unchanged. Of the six companies announcing results, only two had positive outcomes.Source • NHKGOOD NEWS • BAD NEWS - The good news is that the increase in disclosed cases of Covid-19 outside Tokyo has not increased significantly; Tokyo, however, has seen an alarming rise. Forty-seven new cases were confirmed yesterday, taking the total in the metropolis to 259. Tokyo will implement a 'stay-at-home-policy' this weekend. Surrounding prefectures have encouraged their residents not to travel into the city over the weekend. Amusement parks that had reopened last weekend will now close their doors.ODD NEWS - In other 'news', the Sapporo Board of Education is debating whether to allow students to wear face masks that are not white. In the past, many schools have mandated that children can only have black hair, forcing some children whose hair is naturally lighter to dye their hair black to conform to the 'norm'.  

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 26th March

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/170/original/2020-01-28_05-14-43.png?1580156104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115170"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>TRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.SCORING METHODOLOGY - Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/171/original/2020-01-28_05-28-10.png?1580156919" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115171"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet Office</div>TRENDING LOWER - Although the Results Score has been moving sideways since November, the Forecast/Revision Score continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.<div class="content-highlight">Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.</div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.SCORING METHODOLOGY - Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet OfficeTRENDING LOWER - Although the Results Score has been moving sideways since November, the Forecast/Revision Score continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

Japan

JSR Corporation manufactures synthetic rubber and synthetic resins.  The Company's rubber products are used mainly for auto tires.  JSR Corporation also manufactures LCD-related materials and photo-resists.

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JSR Corp (4185 JP)

JSR Deal Tender Results for MBL (4557 JP) Imply Faster Squeeze-Out

The JSR (4185) deal for (MBL) got 92+%. That leaves a roughly riskless Rate Of Return Residual Trade for the next 3 months.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JSR (4185 JP) Tender Offer for Medical & Biological Labs (4557 JP)

JSR (4185) launches a deal to buy in minorities in Medical & Biological Labs (4557 JP), a medical research, diagnostics, and reagent business. The...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/14 - Tsuruha, Kura Sushi, Arcland Sakamoto, JSR

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES -50% of quarterly results, 66% of annual forecasts/revisions and 69% of interim forecasts...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 26th March

THURSDAY 26th MARCH - Yesterday saw six companies reporting results, of which only two -Optoelectronics (6664 JP) and Fukushima Printing (7870 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

TRACKING RESULTS & REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the...

Campbell Gunn

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JSR Deal Tender Results for MBL (4557 JP) Imply Faster Squeeze-Out

The JSR (4185) deal for (MBL) got 92+%. That leaves a roughly riskless Rate Of Return Residual Trade for the next 3 months.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JSR (4185 JP) Tender Offer for Medical & Biological Labs (4557 JP)

JSR (4185) launches a deal to buy in minorities in Medical & Biological Labs (4557 JP), a medical research, diagnostics, and reagent business. The...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​14 - Tsuruha, Kura Sushi, Arcland Sakamoto, JSR

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES -50% of quarterly results, 66% of annual forecasts/revisions and 69% of interim forecasts...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 26th March

THURSDAY 26th MARCH - Yesterday saw six companies reporting results, of which only two -Optoelectronics (6664 JP) and Fukushima Printing (7870 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

TRACKING RESULTS & REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/14 - Tsuruha, Kura Sushi, Arcland Sakamoto, JSR