FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USD and US yields have surged as Trump raises to the top of his agenda infrastructure spending with an “America First” policy.  Trump made no mention of immigration in his victory speech, praised Clinton and called for national unity, lessening fear he might indict Clinton, build a wall on the Mexican border, and incite violence and division across racial lines.  Clinton and Obama called for a peaceful exchange of power and acceptance of a Trump presidency, further helping create a sense of stability and investor confidence.  Trump will have considerable power to achieve his agenda quickly and more fully with Republicans holding both houses of Congress.  He will have a hold over his Republican colleagues in Congress given the strong anti-establishment movement he has inspired, further adding to his power. An America First policy poses some risk for the US traded goods sector and global economy, and may reduce the spillover of fiscal expansion to other countries.  But this tends to enhance the potential uplift fiscal spending provides to US growth, boosting both yields and the USD, and reduces the benefit for emerging market assets and currencies.

The USD and US yields have surged as Trump raises to the top of his agenda infrastructure spending with an “America First” policy.  Trump made no mention of immigration in his victory speech, praised Clinton and called for national unity, lessening fear he might indict Clinton, build a wall on the Mexican border, and incite violence and division across racial lines.  Clinton and Obama called for a peaceful exchange of power and acceptance of a Trump presidency, further helping create a sense of stability and investor confidence.  Trump will have considerable power to achieve his agenda quickly and more fully with Republicans holding both houses of Congress.  He will have a hold over his Republican colleagues in Congress given the strong anti-establishment movement he has inspired, further adding to his power. An America First policy poses some risk for the US traded goods sector and global economy, and may reduce the spillover of fiscal expansion to other countries.  But this tends to enhance the potential uplift fiscal spending provides to US growth, boosting both yields and the USD, and reduces the benefit for emerging market assets and currencies.

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social upheaval in the USA.  The reduced risk of legal action against Clinton over her use of emails (following the latest FBI release) also improves the prospect for stability post-election. Global growth indicators have generally improved over recent months and commodity prices have continued to build on gains earlier in the year (with the exception of oil prices).  US employment data were stronger than expected, including higher wages growth.  This is supporting rising global bond yields from still very low levels.  As global bond yields rise, while they remain largely stagnant in Japan, the JPY is likely to weaken against most currencies.  We expect this trend to continue unless there is a surprise Trump victory.  We see scope for JPY to unwind a good deal of its significant gains this year.  The RBNZ are expected to cut rates this week, but they will do so reluctantly and are likely to move to a neutral bias, supporting the case for a stronger NZD/JPY.  AUD is pressing against resistance supported by resurgent coal and iron ore prices, but recent economic reports suggest domestic growth may be losing momentum.  CAD has significantly underperformed AUD and NZD, undermined by lower oil prices, dovish Bank of Canada statements, and fears over the US election. More stable oil prices and a solid Clinton victory may see CAD recover lost ground.

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social upheaval in the USA.  The reduced risk of legal action against Clinton over her use of emails (following the latest FBI release) also improves the prospect for stability post-election. Global growth indicators have generally improved over recent months and commodity prices have continued to build on gains earlier in the year (with the exception of oil prices).  US employment data were stronger than expected, including higher wages growth.  This is supporting rising global bond yields from still very low levels.  As global bond yields rise, while they remain largely stagnant in Japan, the JPY is likely to weaken against most currencies.  We expect this trend to continue unless there is a surprise Trump victory.  We see scope for JPY to unwind a good deal of its significant gains this year.  The RBNZ are expected to cut rates this week, but they will do so reluctantly and are likely to move to a neutral bias, supporting the case for a stronger NZD/JPY.  AUD is pressing against resistance supported by resurgent coal and iron ore prices, but recent economic reports suggest domestic growth may be losing momentum.  CAD has significantly underperformed AUD and NZD, undermined by lower oil prices, dovish Bank of Canada statements, and fears over the US election. More stable oil prices and a solid Clinton victory may see CAD recover lost ground.

JPY Has Scope to Fall Further on Rising Global Inflation Indicators

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Thomas Schroeder

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Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 6 November 2016USD buy supportsTo view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1478477665867000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG0Emund0g2dLrP-nIHsdC50btJ8g">http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44</a> 10:40 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/928/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1478395871" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15928"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>DXY – Decline below 97.40 support takes away some energy needed for the next DXY push with support now near 97-96.50. For upside momentum we need to get past 98.16 resistance again. US election will play the biggest role this week. We like DXY below 97 for a secondary rally attempt. RSI now below 50 while the MACD shows no bear divergence, suggesting a…

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 6 November 2016USD buy supportsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44 10:40 min.FX webcastDXY – Decline below 97.40 support takes away some energy needed for the next DXY push with support now near 97-96.50. For upside momentum we need to get past 98.16 resistance again. US election will play the biggest role this week. We like DXY below 97 for a secondary rally attempt. RSI now below 50 while the MACD shows no bear divergence, suggesting a…

USD Tactical Buy Support Within Topping Cycle

German bund yields have tended to lead global bond yields higher over recent months.  UK gilt yields have also risen sharply as a risk premium for a weaker and more volatile GBP is established and the government moves towards an easier fiscal policy, further contributing to higher global yields.  Recent economic activity and inflation indicators (headline CPI and long-term break-evens) in the UK and Eurozone support the rising trend in their yields.  The market continues to expect an extension of QE in the Eurozone and appears more sensitive to any hint that the extension may be limited or the pace of purchases tapered.  The case for higher yields is less clear in the US with mixed economic reports, but activity appears stable and the outlook may improve post-election.  Japanese yields have been much more stable since the BoJ implemented Yield Curve Control.  If the rising trend in global yields persists, we expect Japanese yields to remain more stable, creating higher yield support for other currencies against the JPY.

German bund yields have tended to lead global bond yields higher over recent months.  UK gilt yields have also risen sharply as a risk premium for a weaker and more volatile GBP is established and the government moves towards an easier fiscal policy, further contributing to higher global yields.  Recent economic activity and inflation indicators (headline CPI and long-term break-evens) in the UK and Eurozone support the rising trend in their yields.  The market continues to expect an extension of QE in the Eurozone and appears more sensitive to any hint that the extension may be limited or the pace of purchases tapered.  The case for higher yields is less clear in the US with mixed economic reports, but activity appears stable and the outlook may improve post-election.  Japanese yields have been much more stable since the BoJ implemented Yield Curve Control.  If the rising trend in global yields persists, we expect Japanese yields to remain more stable, creating higher yield support for other currencies against the JPY.

Bund Yields Leading Global Yields Higher, Lifting EUR/JPY Yield Support

USD/JPY basing does provide a strategic floor for the Nikkei provided the USD holds JPY 100 base line macro support. A more positive global cycle will also play into Nikkei upside from November into year-end/Q116.Japan is a fresh long theme on the back of a bullish 100 USD base. We are nibbling into the USD below 103 with an ideal buy zone at 102.20-40. Bull targets remain at 107, 111 and 116.50.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/205/original/USD%20JPY%20HOURLY%20NEW%20CHART.png?1477289795" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15205"></figure><div class="content-caption">USD/JPY pullback structure</div>USD/JPY intra-day cycle (above) exhibits a rounded top with minor bear…

USD/JPY basing does provide a strategic floor for the Nikkei provided the USD holds JPY 100 base line macro support. A more positive global cycle will also play into Nikkei upside from November into year-end/Q116.Japan is a fresh long theme on the back of a bullish 100 USD base. We are nibbling into the USD below 103 with an ideal buy zone at 102.20-40. Bull targets remain at 107, 111 and 116.50.USD/JPY pullback structureUSD/JPY intra-day cycle (above) exhibits a rounded top with minor bear…

Japan Turning the Corner Under USD Base Assumption

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

America First

The USD and US yields have surged as Trump raises to the top of his agenda infrastructure spending with an “America First” policy. Trump made no...

Greg Gibbs

JPY Has Scope to Fall Further on Rising Global Inflation Indicators

The increased prospect of a Clinton victory in the USA election is allowing the market to start to look beyond the risk of policy and social...

Greg Gibbs

USD Tactical Buy Support Within Topping Cycle

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 6 November 2016USD buy supportsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/5z8EWf44 10:40 min.DXY –...

Thomas Schroeder

Bund Yields Leading Global Yields Higher, Lifting EUR/JPY Yield Support

German bund yields have tended to lead global bond yields higher over recent months. UK gilt yields have also risen sharply as a risk premium for...

Greg Gibbs

Japan Turning the Corner Under USD Base Assumption

USD/JPY basing does provide a strategic floor for the Nikkei provided the USD holds JPY 100 base line macro support. A more positive global cycle...

Thomas Schroeder

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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