Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.</li><li>We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.</li><li>Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.</li></ul>

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

<ul><li>A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekend</li><li>Oil markets are physically tight still, but there are some signs of cracks in demand</li><li>Nat gas markets have started to rally, which is another issue for EUR, GBP and JPY markets</li></ul>

A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekendOil markets are physically tight still, but there are some signs of cracks in demandNat gas markets have started to rally, which is another issue for EUR, GBP and JPY markets

Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.</li><li>As we put pen to paper, history is unfolding in Israel, with plenty of shocking footage circulating online.</li><li>With Netanyahu declaring war and a growing mobilization, it appears that the worst of the bloodshed may be yet to come.</li></ul>

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.As we put pen to paper, history is unfolding in Israel, with plenty of shocking footage circulating online.With Netanyahu declaring war and a growing mobilization, it appears that the worst of the bloodshed may be yet to come.

Positioning Watch: Who is caught in the Crossfire?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. </li>
<li>Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. </li>
<li>We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.</li>
</ul>


This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. 
Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. 
We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

<ul><li>Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.</li><li>We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.</li><li>Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.</li></ul>

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this

A deal between the US/Israel and Saudi Arabia seems off the table after this weekend. Oil markets are physically tight still, but there are some...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Who is caught in the Crossfire?

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Defaults are rising, gasoline demand is falling out of bed, and price pressures reside despite spiking energy prices. Is the growth slump finally...

Jeroen Blokland

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards. We put...

Steno Research

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