Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

<ul>
<li>I have finally had a few moments to digest the ECB meeting amidst stories that the Bank of Japan will tweak its YCC policy tomorrow.</li>
<li>The macro environment never fails to entertain.</li>
<li>Here is why the ECB will likely pause from here, while European inflation could reach target already by September/October.</li>
</ul>


I have finally had a few moments to digest the ECB meeting amidst stories that the Bank of Japan will tweak its YCC policy tomorrow.
The macro environment never fails to entertain.
Here is why the ECB will likely pause from here, while European inflation could reach target already by September/October.


Euro Area Watch: 7 Charts on the ECB and EUR-Inflation

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.</li><li>Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.</li><li>But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.</li></ul>

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we are on our toes to provide you with actionable and timely coverage of all the rate decisions, meeting takeaways and more from Fed, ECB, BoJ &amp; the rest.Our main thesis is that the overall message across the board will be slightly dovish given recent CPI numbers which suggest that the central banks’ job is done and that inflation will come down fast.But maybe central banks keep looking in the rearview mirror, afraid to make a mistake that will ignite inflation again.

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.</li><li>Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.</li><li>The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

<ul>
<li>The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary policy conducted in Japan leaves a textbook-like carry trade in shorting the Yen against basically every other currency with positive interest rates.</li>
<li>With the recent rally in Yen and JGB yields, it might therefore be time to revisit the Asian islands to see if something has structurally changed, or if the Yen will remain the most shorted currency worldwide.</li>
<li>If now is the time to load up on the Japanese currency, it could be one of the greatest trades for every PM and investor out there – as you say, the higher you have to climb, the further you have to fall.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary policy conducted in Japan leaves a textbook-like carry trade in shorting the Yen against basically every other currency with positive interest rates.
With the recent rally in Yen and JGB yields, it might therefore be time to revisit the Asian islands to see if something has structurally changed, or if the Yen will remain the most shorted currency worldwide.
If now is the time to load up on the Japanese currency, it could be one of the greatest trades for every PM and investor out there – as you say, the higher you have to climb, the further you have to fall.


Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 More Likely than <130 in USDJPY

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

Euro Area Watch: 7 Charts on the ECB and EUR-Inflation

I have finally had a few moments to digest the ECB meeting amidst stories that the Bank of Japan will tweak its YCC policy tomorrow. The macro...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoJ, RBA & Credit

It’s central bank week again! Always a busy week when the biggest central banks publish their monthly interest rate decisions, but as always we...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past...

Steno Research

Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 More Likely than <130 in USDJPY

The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)