Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Ending a quarter-century of stagnation, Japan's nominal GDP rose 3.04% in the year to Jun'23, with per capita nominal GDP up 3.51% and per capita real GDP 1.91%. </li>
<li>With the decisive defeat of deflation, core CPI inflation was 2.8%YoY in Aug'23, enabling 21 consecutive months of YoY wage growth. The fiscal deficit likely declines to 3.5% of GDP.</li>
<li>Rebounding exports will restore a trade surplus this quarter, bolstering the current account surplus to 2.7% of GDP this year and 3.3% next. Stay overweight Japan. </li>
</ul>


Ending a quarter-century of stagnation, Japan's nominal GDP rose 3.04% in the year to Jun'23, with per capita nominal GDP up 3.51% and per capita real GDP 1.91%. 
With the decisive defeat of deflation, core CPI inflation was 2.8%YoY in Aug'23, enabling 21 consecutive months of YoY wage growth. The fiscal deficit likely declines to 3.5% of GDP.
Rebounding exports will restore a trade surplus this quarter, bolstering the current account surplus to 2.7% of GDP this year and 3.3% next. Stay overweight Japan. 


Japan: The End of Japanification as Rising Nominal GDP Spurs Virtuous Circles

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attention</li><li>BoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).</li><li>Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.</li></ul>

Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attentionBoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

<ul><li>Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting concluding Oct 31.</li><li>If this was not a deliberate trial balloon to try and push USDJPY lower from the 150 mark (we doubt that), then we ought to take this message seriously.</li><li>The decision to increase the inflation forecast again is essentially a no-brainer conclusion given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision?</li></ul>

Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting concluding Oct 31.If this was not a deliberate trial balloon to try and push USDJPY lower from the 150 mark (we doubt that), then we ought to take this message seriously.The decision to increase the inflation forecast again is essentially a no-brainer conclusion given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision?

Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

<ul><li>Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverage</li><li>USDCNY &amp; USDJPY could prove to be the bellwethers on the cycle and US Policy</li><li>The Geopolitical mess still rhymes well with higher credit risk premiums</li></ul>

Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverageUSDCNY &amp; USDJPY could prove to be the bellwethers on the cycle and US PolicyThe Geopolitical mess still rhymes well with higher credit risk premiums

EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Japan: The End of Japanification as Rising Nominal GDP Spurs Virtuous Circles

Decisive end to deflation (core inflation at 2.8%YoY, 21 months of YoY wage gains) sets off a virtuous circle: per capital nominal GDP up 3.5%,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

Welcome to this week’s edition of our weekly recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’. Which fool said macro was boring? Loads of moves to address but we’ve...

Steno Research

Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!

Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?

Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverage. USDCNY & USDJPY could prove to be the...

Steno Research

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