FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USD’s performance last week was particularly lackluster after what should have been a supportive FOMC statement, and it was slapped back into a broad down-trend by a disappointing BoJ meeting and a weak US Q2 GDP report.Not only did the BoJ fail to meet expectations of more QQE/NIRP, its decision to raises ETF purchases and support USD borrowing reduce Japanese demand for foreign currencies, exacerbating the rise in JPY. The BoJ said it was planning a “comprehensive assessment” of its QQE/NIRP policies at its next policy meeting, suggesting that it may yet be constructing a rabbit to pull out of the hat, but you are likely to suffocate under the weight of a sinking USD/JPY if you hold your breath.US politics have become a risk for the USA and global economy.  The Trump phenomenon has already pushed the USA in a protectionist direction against free trade.  The final months of the USA election campaign may dampen US activity, and there is a lack of hope that much good will come of the next USA presidency. Global growth appears anemic, uncertainty is high, and confidence in the effectiveness of further monetary policy easing is low. Anti-establishment politics is on the rise, weakening and delaying government responses to economic challenges. It appears quite possible that we will continue to limp into next year with the same market trends that have played out this year.  Weak to modest global economic growth, stubbornly low inflation and inflation expectations, low and perhaps even lower global bond yields, pressuring global equities higher in an environment of low investor confidence.  A weak USD, uncomfortable strong JPY, and upward pressure on emerging and commodity currencies with higher albeit diminishing yields.The USD appears to be bearing the brunt of any weakness shown in the US economy.  Rate hike expectations have been whittled back to low levels and strong data could give the USD a reprieve, but the market appears to need more convincing that the Fed is prepared to raise rates.

The USD’s performance last week was particularly lackluster after what should have been a supportive FOMC statement, and it was slapped back into a broad down-trend by a disappointing BoJ meeting and a weak US Q2 GDP report.Not only did the BoJ fail to meet expectations of more QQE/NIRP, its decision to raises ETF purchases and support USD borrowing reduce Japanese demand for foreign currencies, exacerbating the rise in JPY. The BoJ said it was planning a “comprehensive assessment” of its QQE/NIRP policies at its next policy meeting, suggesting that it may yet be constructing a rabbit to pull out of the hat, but you are likely to suffocate under the weight of a sinking USD/JPY if you hold your breath.US politics have become a risk for the USA and global economy.  The Trump phenomenon has already pushed the USA in a protectionist direction against free trade.  The final months of the USA election campaign may dampen US activity, and there is a lack of hope that much good will come of the next USA presidency. Global growth appears anemic, uncertainty is high, and confidence in the effectiveness of further monetary policy easing is low. Anti-establishment politics is on the rise, weakening and delaying government responses to economic challenges. It appears quite possible that we will continue to limp into next year with the same market trends that have played out this year.  Weak to modest global economic growth, stubbornly low inflation and inflation expectations, low and perhaps even lower global bond yields, pressuring global equities higher in an environment of low investor confidence.  A weak USD, uncomfortable strong JPY, and upward pressure on emerging and commodity currencies with higher albeit diminishing yields.The USD appears to be bearing the brunt of any weakness shown in the US economy.  Rate hike expectations have been whittled back to low levels and strong data could give the USD a reprieve, but the market appears to need more convincing that the Fed is prepared to raise rates.

AmpGFX - USD Bearing the Brunt of Anemic Global Economic Confidence

The USD/JPY may have reached a high this week ahead of the 29 July policy meeting, but it has recovered significantly since the Abe election triumph and breached key resistance around 105 to 105.50.  Much depends on the BoJ monetary policy meeting on 29 July.  The JPY has rallied after every policy meeting this year and the ball is now in Kuroda’s court to break this trend.  A decisive multi-pronged policy easing next week ahead of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus boost in the second half of the year should be sufficient for the USD/JPY to revert to a persistently weaker trend in light of a recovery regaining momentum in the USA and abating fear of Brexit fallout beyond the UK.

The USD/JPY may have reached a high this week ahead of the 29 July policy meeting, but it has recovered significantly since the Abe election triumph and breached key resistance around 105 to 105.50.  Much depends on the BoJ monetary policy meeting on 29 July.  The JPY has rallied after every policy meeting this year and the ball is now in Kuroda’s court to break this trend.  A decisive multi-pronged policy easing next week ahead of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus boost in the second half of the year should be sufficient for the USD/JPY to revert to a persistently weaker trend in light of a recovery regaining momentum in the USA and abating fear of Brexit fallout beyond the UK.

AmpGFX - Kuroda the Ball Is in Your Court

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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AmpGFX - USD Bearing the Brunt of Anemic Global Economic Confidence

The USD’s performance last week was particularly lackluster after what should have been a supportive FOMC statement, and it was slapped back into a...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - Kuroda the Ball Is in Your Court

The USD/JPY may have reached a high this week ahead of the 29 July policy meeting, but it has recovered significantly since the Abe election...

Greg Gibbs

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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