Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations;  * Deutsche still continues to be a multi-year restructuring which is wholly dependent upon the business cycle; and * Despite all the hoopla with these results, Deutsche still has an enormous headache on its hands.  <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations. We remain concerned…

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations;  * Deutsche still continues to be a multi-year restructuring which is wholly dependent upon the business cycle; and * Despite all the hoopla with these results, Deutsche still has an enormous headache on its hands.  Investment SummaryDeutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations. We remain concerned…

* Deutsche Bank USA Fails CCAR and Capital Infusion Likely Necessary;* Several Other Banks Passed Conditionally; and *  Deutsche’s  CDS spreads are significantly wider; the belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that Deutsche is far from being out of the woods;  and  the HNA Group and Qatari Share Dumps To Continue. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>All but one of the 35 commercial banks have passed the Federal Reserve Board's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test inclusive of…

* Deutsche Bank USA Fails CCAR and Capital Infusion Likely Necessary;* Several Other Banks Passed Conditionally; and *  Deutsche’s  CDS spreads are significantly wider; the belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that Deutsche is far from being out of the woods;  and  the HNA Group and Qatari Share Dumps To Continue. Investment SummaryAll but one of the 35 commercial banks have passed the Federal Reserve Board's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test inclusive of…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

So far the S&amp;P 500 has failed to overcome the 2,790-2,800 resistance level we first highlighted in our 6/5/18 Compass. However, while a breakdown below support remains possible, the S&amp;P 500 is currently at an area where we would expect to see some support. The wild card remains financials.  A breakdown of the sector has the potential to usher in another broad market selloff, which could cause the S&amp;P 500 to fall below 200-day moving average support and lead to more negative breadth signals for the indicators highlighted above. $26.50 on the XLF is the level we are watching.

So far the S&amp;P 500 has failed to overcome the 2,790-2,800 resistance level we first highlighted in our 6/5/18 Compass. However, while a breakdown below support remains possible, the S&amp;P 500 is currently at an area where we would expect to see some support. The wild card remains financials.  A breakdown of the sector has the potential to usher in another broad market selloff, which could cause the S&amp;P 500 to fall below 200-day moving average support and lead to more negative breadth signals for the indicators highlighted above. $26.50 on the XLF is the level we are watching.

U.S. Equities: Downgrading Manufacturing and Materials; Large-Cap Financials at Critical Support

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable:  Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the pivot toward Asia; b) focus on the international network; c) turn around the US business; and d) invest for future growth.* New Plan Does Not Add Up: That said, the updated strategic plan is confusing and very simply does not add up – especially considering that HSBC will be limiting loan growth to 1-2% per annum. The greater than 6% RoTE target for…

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable:  Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the pivot toward Asia; b) focus on the international network; c) turn around the US business; and d) invest for future growth.* New Plan Does Not Add Up: That said, the updated strategic plan is confusing and very simply does not add up – especially considering that HSBC will be limiting loan growth to 1-2% per annum. The greater than 6% RoTE target for…

HSBC Holdings Plc– New Strategic Plan Is Complete Nonsense

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Open Banking initiative in the UK, the PSD2 directive in the EU and a Japanese equivalent are forcing banks to provide third party access via software APIs to customer data and accounts.</li>
<li>In effect, the new regulations will enable a separation of the functions of money i.e. the traditional bundling role of banks is being disintermediated in an ‘open source’ financial data world.</li>
<li>From being financial department stores, banks will have to become more like malls, hosting a range of independent…</li>
</ul>


The Open Banking initiative in the UK, the PSD2 directive in the EU and a Japanese equivalent are forcing banks to provide third party access via software APIs to customer data and accounts.
In effect, the new regulations will enable a separation of the functions of money i.e. the traditional bundling role of banks is being disintermediated in an ‘open source’ financial data world.
From being financial department stores, banks will have to become more like malls, hosting a range of independent…


Payments Battle Goes Global, as Fintech Threat Evolves…

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

Deutsche Bank - Still A Dumpster Fire

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations; * Deutsche still...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - Failed CCAR

* Deutsche Bank USA Fails CCAR and Capital Infusion Likely Necessary;* Several Other Banks Passed Conditionally; and * Deutsche’s CDS spreads are...

Thomas J. Monaco

U.S. Equities: Downgrading Manufacturing and Materials; Large-Cap Financials at Critical Support

So far the S&P 500 has failed to overcome the 2,790-2,800 resistance level we first highlighted in our 6/5/18 Compass. However, while a...

Vermilion Research

HSBC Holdings Plc– New Strategic Plan Is Complete Nonsense

* Well Written Plan, Does Not Suggest Its Viable: Strategic priorities are similar to those of the previous 3 year Strategic Plan: a) continue the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Payments Battle Goes Global, as Fintech Threat Evolves…

The Open Banking initiative in the UK, the PSD2 directive in the EU and a Japanese equivalent are forcing banks to provide third party access via...

Sean Maher

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