Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>While economic recovery data may be clearest, we look to US banks’ C19 loan modifications. Most banks globally term these loans as deferral loans, and they are a new feature of banks’ balance sheets from the government actions taken early in this year. Modified loans or reschedule loans have narrowed dramatically in the most recent quarter, suggesting that the degree of stress is not worsening, and quite the contrary.</p>

While economic recovery data may be clearest, we look to US banks’ C19 loan modifications. Most banks globally term these loans as deferral loans, and they are a new feature of banks’ balance sheets from the government actions taken early in this year. Modified loans or reschedule loans have narrowed dramatically in the most recent quarter, suggesting that the degree of stress is not worsening, and quite the contrary.

<p>The main lever for US banks and others is credit costs. This is clear in data during the three quarters thus far this year. After the closing of economies credit costs soared and with the re-opening they have collapsed. But operationally US banks can also benefit from the steepening yield curve. The spread of 10-year US Treasuries over 1-year paper continues to expand. With vaccines, the Biden win and a better understanding of the cost-benefit on how governments reacted early this year, there is likely more risk of the yield curve remaining steep.</p>

The main lever for US banks and others is credit costs. This is clear in data during the three quarters thus far this year. After the closing of economies credit costs soared and with the re-opening they have collapsed. But operationally US banks can also benefit from the steepening yield curve. The spread of 10-year US Treasuries over 1-year paper continues to expand. With vaccines, the Biden win and a better understanding of the cost-benefit on how governments reacted early this year, there is likely more risk of the yield curve remaining steep.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*We Anxiously Await HSBC’s US Departure: </em></strong>According the Financial Times on November 28, 2020, HSBC is considering offloading its entire US retail network - although a full exit from other businesses in the US is unlikely. The recommendation of a US exit is expected to be presented to the board as early as this week, although the Group is scheduled to provide an update on its plans for its French and US businesses in February 2021; </p><p><em><strong>*HSBCNA Should Be Sold: </strong></em>HSBCNA is a chronic mess, and there is absolutely no need for HSBC to maintain a full commercial/retail banking presence in the US. It cannot earn a positive return under its current structure; credit is again about to fall off a cliff; does not earning; NIMs are among the lowest in the USA; and capital is shortly about to fall below regulatory guidance. Further, the bad acquisitions and regulatory headaches should spur management to cut and run in the US. Knowing HSBC management as we do, they will continue making the same mistakes over and over again; and    </p><p><em><strong>*Hong Kong Tax Rate Continues To Mask Management’s Global Mistakes: </strong></em>When your core subsidiary in Hong Kong has a statutory corporate tax rate of 16.5% and the organization is not subject to global taxation, low taxes can mask the many mistakes that HSBC makes. </p>

*We Anxiously Await HSBC’s US Departure: According the Financial Times on November 28, 2020, HSBC is considering offloading its entire US retail network - although a full exit from other businesses in the US is unlikely. The recommendation of a US exit is expected to be presented to the board as early as this week, although the Group is scheduled to provide an update on its plans for its French and US businesses in February 2021; *HSBCNA Should Be Sold: HSBCNA is a chronic mess, and there is absolutely no need for HSBC to maintain a full commercial/retail banking presence in the US. It cannot earn a positive return under its current structure; credit is again about to fall off a cliff; does not earning; NIMs are among the lowest in the USA; and capital is shortly about to fall below regulatory guidance. Further, the bad acquisitions and regulatory headaches should spur management to cut and run in the US. Knowing HSBC management as we do, they will continue making the same mistakes over and over again; and    *Hong Kong Tax Rate Continues To Mask Management’s Global Mistakes: When your core subsidiary in Hong Kong has a statutory corporate tax rate of 16.5% and the organization is not subject to global taxation, low taxes can mask the many mistakes that HSBC makes. 

HSBC Holdings Plc – Act Now, You’ll Never See These Prices Again

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>Last month, I published several Insights addressing possible Biden appointments to key roles. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/u-s-elections-a-biden-win-would-mean-a-new-u-s-treasury-secretary-elizabeth-warren-might-be-it" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44761" rel="noopener">U.S. Elections: A Biden Win Would Mean a New U.S. Treasury Secretary (Elizabeth Warren Might Be It)</a>, I suggested Senator Elizabeth Warrant as the top contender for U.S. Treasury Secretary.</p><p>Well, I got that one wrong (although I did mention Janet Yellen as a possible pick). Recently, Biden announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. This report is a quick update, addressing why Yellen is a better pick, especially in these times, for two reasons:</p><ol>
<li>Yellen understands the connect between the coronavirus pandemic and the economy and might the person to help break the Congressional deadlock on passing additional stimulus aid.</li>
<li>Yellen is a known-entity for Wall Street, appreciated for a "no-surprises" approach and views on removing trade barriers. Preferable to Wall Street over Warren's far-left, pro-regulation views.</li>
</ol>

Last month, I published several Insights addressing possible Biden appointments to key roles. In U.S. Elections: A Biden Win Would Mean a New U.S. Treasury Secretary (Elizabeth Warren Might Be It), I suggested Senator Elizabeth Warrant as the top contender for U.S. Treasury Secretary.Well, I got that one wrong (although I did mention Janet Yellen as a possible pick). Recently, Biden announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. This report is a quick update, addressing why Yellen is a better pick, especially in these times, for two reasons:
Yellen understands the connect between the coronavirus pandemic and the economy and might the person to help break the Congressional deadlock on passing additional stimulus aid.
Yellen is a known-entity for Wall Street, appreciated for a "no-surprises" approach and views on removing trade barriers. Preferable to Wall Street over Warren's far-left, pro-regulation views.


Janet Yellen As U.S. Treasury Secretary Is Good Economic Recovery and Wall Street

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Embassy Office Parks REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<section><div id="ember1549">
<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/embassy-office-parks-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27925:1" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) </a> plans to acquire assets worth US$1.3bn, and aims to fund part of the purchase via a US$500m institutional placement, later in the year.  </p></div>
<div><p>The stock was listed in Apr 2019 and we have covered the listing and previous placement as well, links for which are below: </p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-good-assets-but-projections-might-be-a-tad-too-bullish" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT - Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-comparison-with-ait-and-a-look-at-the-required-yield" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT - Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield</a>, and</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-ipo-fy19-revised-down-yield-propped-up-by-zero-coupon-bond" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO - FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-trading-update-lowest-volume-traded-for-any-indian-listing-since-2018" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT Trading Update - Lowest Volume Traded for Any Indian Listing Since 2018</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/embassy-office-parks-reit-placement-to-big-to-swallow-if-its-not-a-reverse-enquiry" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - To Big to Swallow if Its Not a Reverse Enquiry</a></li>
</ul></div>
</div></section><p>In this insight, I'll take an early look at the deal.</p>


Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN)  plans to acquire assets worth US$1.3bn, and aims to fund part of the purchase via a US$500m institutional placement, later in the year.  
The stock was listed in Apr 2019 and we have covered the listing and previous placement as well, links for which are below: 

Embassy Office Parks REIT - Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish

Embassy Office Parks REIT - Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield, and
Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO - FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond
Embassy Office Parks REIT Trading Update - Lowest Volume Traded for Any Indian Listing Since 2018
Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - To Big to Swallow if Its Not a Reverse Enquiry

In this insight, I'll take an early look at the deal.

Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - Early Look - Big Deal but Will Come with Ample Warning

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

US Banks – Deferral Debt Dwindling

We look to US banks’ C19 loan modifications. Modified loans or reschedule loans have narrowed dramatically, suggesting that the degree of stress is...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks – Borrow Short, Lend Long

While credit costs will remain a key focus for US banks over the coming quarters, we must not lose sight of the steepening yield curve and what it...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC Holdings Plc – Act Now, You’ll Never See These Prices Again

HSBC HOLDINGS PLC: Financial Times Suggesting Board Will Be Presented With Options On US Franchise This Week. This Was A Long Time In Coming.

Thomas J. Monaco

Janet Yellen As U.S. Treasury Secretary Is Good Economic Recovery and Wall Street

Biden appointed former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary. This update to an Insight in which I named Senator Warren as...

Kyle Rudden

Embassy Office Parks REIT Placement - Early Look - Big Deal but Will Come with Ample Warning

Embassy Office Parks REIT plans to acquire assets worth US$1.3bn, and aims to fund part of the purchase via a US$500m institutional placement,...

Sumeet Singh

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