Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There are more US banks with margin expansion in the past six months that have high levels of term deposits, than those that have low term deposits. Re-pricing at especially low rates now, can mean even more NIM expansion.

There are more US banks with margin expansion in the past six months that have high levels of term deposits, than those that have low term deposits. Re-pricing at especially low rates now, can mean even more NIM expansion. 

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

For our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kyle-rudden" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4495" rel="noopener">Kyle Rudden</a>, who continues his series on ESG investing.On this session, Kyle will give an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate, explore its implications for Corporate ESG Reporting and ESG Investing, and examine Metrics and Materiality in practice through examples and case studies.This webinar is organised jointly by Smartkarma and SGX.<h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 August 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=88191048159" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div>Kyle Rudden is an ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) analyst with an alpha-centric approach to ESG research. After all, ESG investing is, first and foremost, investing. "Alpha-centric" does not mean apathetic, however. Quite the contrary. Kyle believes global sustainability – i.e., environmental stewardship, social equality, and economic prosperity – is imperative, and private-sector capital is its cornerstone. Private-sector capital still has fiduciary responsibilities. Profitability is necessary for sustained impact. The Triple Bottom Line. People, Planet, AND Profit.

For our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider Kyle Rudden, who continues his series on ESG investing.On this session, Kyle will give an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate, explore its implications for Corporate ESG Reporting and ESG Investing, and examine Metrics and Materiality in practice through examples and case studies.This webinar is organised jointly by Smartkarma and SGX.The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 August 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.Register for the Webinar hereKyle Rudden is an ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) analyst with an alpha-centric approach to ESG research. After all, ESG investing is, first and foremost, investing. "Alpha-centric" does not mean apathetic, however. Quite the contrary. Kyle believes global sustainability – i.e., environmental stewardship, social equality, and economic prosperity – is imperative, and private-sector capital is its cornerstone. Private-sector capital still has fiduciary responsibilities. Profitability is necessary for sustained impact. The Triple Bottom Line. People, Planet, AND Profit.

Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Metrics and Materiality - What Matters to Whom and Why

There are stark differences in how loan loss provisioning levels have changed since late 2019 to early 2021. This can have implications for relative credit costs during FY21. STAN does not fare well, Mizuho looks best.

There are stark differences in how loan loss provisioning levels have changed since late 2019 to early 2021. This can have implications for relative credit costs during FY21. STAN does not fare well, Mizuho looks best. 

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Tax Loss Carryforwards Drive Bottom Line: Bank of America (BAC.US) [BAC] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 9.0 bn, increasing USD 1.4 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. The USD 1.2 bn usage of tax loss carryforwards was the sole reason BAC’s 2Q21 bottom-line exceeded that of 1Q21. If BAC were taxed at the 1Q21 rate, the bottom-line result would have been closer to USD 7.1 bn or USD 500 mn (6.6%) lower on a linked quarter basis; and*BAC’s Credit Quality Best Of Money Centers: We note that net new NPLs decelerated to USD 184 mn or 13.9% on an annualized basis – far better than the USD 957 mn or 74.8% posted in 1Q21. To put this result into perspective, JPM and Citigroup each reported large increases net new NPLs on a linked quarter basis of 177% and 48%, respectively. BAC would appear to have a very comfortable reserve cushion given the run rate in net new NPLs.

*Tax Loss Carryforwards Drive Bottom Line: Bank of America (BAC.US) [BAC] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 9.0 bn, increasing USD 1.4 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. The USD 1.2 bn usage of tax loss carryforwards was the sole reason BAC’s 2Q21 bottom-line exceeded that of 1Q21. If BAC were taxed at the 1Q21 rate, the bottom-line result would have been closer to USD 7.1 bn or USD 500 mn (6.6%) lower on a linked quarter basis; and*BAC’s Credit Quality Best Of Money Centers: We note that net new NPLs decelerated to USD 184 mn or 13.9% on an annualized basis – far better than the USD 957 mn or 74.8% posted in 1Q21. To put this result into perspective, JPM and Citigroup each reported large increases net new NPLs on a linked quarter basis of 177% and 48%, respectively. BAC would appear to have a very comfortable reserve cushion given the run rate in net new NPLs.  

*Weaker Result Across Almost All Geographic Segments: Citigroup (C.US) [Citi] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 6.2 bn, decreasing USD 1.7 bn (22.0%) linked quarter. On operating basis, Citi posted results of USD 6.0 bn, USD 1.5 bn (93.3%) ahead of 1Q21 numbers. Negative operating jaws (revenues down 8.7% and costs up 1.1%) and weakness in both Global Consumer and Institutional businesses broke Citi this quarter; and*Credit Weaker But Coverage Strong:  In light of NCOs, net new NPLs amount to USD 616 mn or increasing at the same exact pace as 1Q21 at 48.0% on an annualized basis – although not nearly as bad as JPM’s 177% increase. While reserve cover remains strong in aggregate, credit degradation appears to still be on the rise going forward at Citi. That being said, despite the elevated increase, Citi still appears likely to continue down the road of reserve releases.

*Weaker Result Across Almost All Geographic Segments: Citigroup (C.US) [Citi] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 6.2 bn, decreasing USD 1.7 bn (22.0%) linked quarter. On operating basis, Citi posted results of USD 6.0 bn, USD 1.5 bn (93.3%) ahead of 1Q21 numbers. Negative operating jaws (revenues down 8.7% and costs up 1.1%) and weakness in both Global Consumer and Institutional businesses broke Citi this quarter; and*Credit Weaker But Coverage Strong:  In light of NCOs, net new NPLs amount to USD 616 mn or increasing at the same exact pace as 1Q21 at 48.0% on an annualized basis – although not nearly as bad as JPM’s 177% increase. While reserve cover remains strong in aggregate, credit degradation appears to still be on the rise going forward at Citi. That being said, despite the elevated increase, Citi still appears likely to continue down the road of reserve releases.

United States

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides global financial services and retail banking. The Company provides services such as investment banking, treasury and securities services, asset management, private banking, card member services, commercial banking, and home finance. JP Morgan Chase serves business enterprises, institutions, and individuals.

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JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM US)

US Banks – NIM Delta Concentrated

There are more US banks with margin expansion in 1H21 that have high term deposits than those that have low term deposits. Re-pricing at especially...

Daniel Tabbush

Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Metrics and Materiality - What Matters to Whom and Why

On 25 August, 5pm SGT, join us and Kyle Rudden for an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate in ESG investing. This webinar is...

Smartkarma Research

Banks – Provisioning

There are stark differences in how provisioning levels changed since 4Q29 to early 2021. This can have implications for relative credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank of America - Brian’s Song

Bank of America: USD 1.2 bn usage of tax loss carryforwards was the sole reason BAC’s 2Q21 results exceeded 1Q21. Net new NPLs decelerated from...

Thomas J. Monaco

Citigroup – Janes’ Pain

Citigroup: Citi reported a 22.0% QOQ 2Q21 bottom-line decline from negative operating jaws and weakness in Global Consumer and Institutional. Net...

Thomas J. Monaco

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