Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>One year after we started tracking solar investment in US, the planned capacity almost doubled to 123GW, comparing to addition of 32GW of capacity added in 2023;</li>
<li>However, there is a lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon capacity in planning. Only 7GW of ingot capacity is planned, vs. cell capacity rose from 8% of total to 43%;</li>
<li>Chinese participation declined only slightly from 31% to 28%. Lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon integration means cost of US production stays high. But overcapacity still restrains up stream profitability.</li>
</ul>


One year after we started tracking solar investment in US, the planned capacity almost doubled to 123GW, comparing to addition of 32GW of capacity added in 2023;
However, there is a lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon capacity in planning. Only 7GW of ingot capacity is planned, vs. cell capacity rose from 8% of total to 43%;
Chinese participation declined only slightly from 31% to 28%. Lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon integration means cost of US production stays high. But overcapacity still restrains up stream profitability.


US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

<ul>
<li>Contrary to battery, Chinese renewable energy companies have largely been absent in EU's solar capacity buildup.We believe the main reason is supply chain structure differences;</li>
<li>One year after we tallied the capacity in C2Q23,11% of the tallied capacity have been cancelled, but another 66% more have been added, among which, however,no ingot or polysilicon projects; </li>
<li>Wacker Chemie's 39GW polysilicon project needs to supply ~10GW of ingot and wafer,~13GW of cell and ~52GW of module, comparing to EU's 2023 installation of only 56GW, which is insufficient.</li>
</ul>


Contrary to battery, Chinese renewable energy companies have largely been absent in EU's solar capacity buildup.We believe the main reason is supply chain structure differences;
One year after we tallied the capacity in C2Q23,11% of the tallied capacity have been cancelled, but another 66% more have been added, among which, however,no ingot or polysilicon projects; 
Wacker Chemie's 39GW polysilicon project needs to supply ~10GW of ingot and wafer,~13GW of cell and ~52GW of module, comparing to EU's 2023 installation of only 56GW, which is insufficient.


EU's Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

<ul>
<li>300274 SZ/DQ US/CSIQ US/JKS US/601615 SH/2208 HK/601012 SH: Domestic new energy installed capacity further slows downDomestic new energy installed capacity further slows down (/////////////)</li>
<li>XPEV US: Xpeng Motors' losses narrowed slightly in the first quarter of 2024 as software sales to Volkswagen increased gross profits (+)</li>
<li>1211HK/LIUS/NIOUS/XPEVUS/TSLAUS:20th week of 2024, BYD fell back a bit while Tesla recovered most of lost ground, Nio and Xiaomi had strong deliveries, and LI once again beat AITO (-/+/+/-/+)</li>
</ul>


300274 SZ/DQ US/CSIQ US/JKS US/601615 SH/2208 HK/601012 SH: Domestic new energy installed capacity further slows downDomestic new energy installed capacity further slows down (/////////////)
XPEV US: Xpeng Motors' losses narrowed slightly in the first quarter of 2024 as software sales to Volkswagen increased gross profits (+)
1211HK/LIUS/NIOUS/XPEVUS/TSLAUS:20th week of 2024, BYD fell back a bit while Tesla recovered most of lost ground, Nio and Xiaomi had strong deliveries, and LI once again beat AITO (-/+/+/-/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: 300274SZ/DQ US/CSIQ US/JKSUS/601615SH/2208HK/601012SH/XPEV/1211HK/LI/NIO/TSLA

<ul>
<li>NIO/1211 HK：Germany ended EV subsidy, impacting Chinese makers little for now (-)</li>
<li>LI/NIO/XPEV/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH/JKS: China customs export data for November (-)</li>
<li>LKNCY :  “ Thailand Luckin ” countersues Luckin Coffee  (/)</li>
</ul>


NIO/1211 HK：Germany ended EV subsidy, impacting Chinese makers little for now (-)
LI/NIO/XPEV/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH/JKS: China customs export data for November (-)
LKNCY :  “ Thailand Luckin ” countersues Luckin Coffee  (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH/JKS/ LKNCY

<ul>
<li>LKNCY: Cotti Coffee pans to expand into tea drinks business(+)</li>
<li>BIDU/DIDI/XPEV: MIIT and 4 other departments to carry out intelligent car access network(+)</li>
<li>LI/NIO/XPEV/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH/JKS: China Export Data in October shows PV and wind power decline accelerating(+/+/+/-/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


LKNCY: Cotti Coffee pans to expand into tea drinks business(+)
BIDU/DIDI/XPEV: MIIT and 4 other departments to carry out intelligent car access network(+)
LI/NIO/XPEV/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH/JKS: China Export Data in October shows PV and wind power decline accelerating(+/+/+/-/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/Cotti Coffe/XPEV/BIDU/NIO/LI/JKS/DIDI/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH

China

JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited manufactures solar products. The Company produces silicon wafers, solar cells and solar modules.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JinkoSolar Holding (JKS US)

US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

US solar PV capacity in planning more than doubled in the past year, but the addition was mainly in modules. There is a meaningful improvement in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EU's Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

Chinese companies have been absent in building capacity in EU, due to lack of upstream material supply. EU's own capacity building is cautious and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: 300274SZ/DQ US/CSIQ US/JKSUS/601615SH/2208HK/601012SH/XPEV/1211HK/LI/NIO/TSLA

new energy installed capacity slows down, Xpeng Motors' losses narrow with increased software sales to Volkswagen, BYD falls while Tesla recovers,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH/JKS/ LKNCY

Germany ending EV subsidies has little immediate impact on Chinese makers. China's customs export data for November shows a decline. "Thailand...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/Cotti Coffe/XPEV/BIDU/NIO/LI/JKS/DIDI/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH

Cotti Coffee plans tea expansion, MIIT to launch intelligent car access network, China's PV and wind power decline worsens in October.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

US solar PV capacity in planning more than doubled in the past year, but the addition was mainly in modules. There is a meaningful improvement in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EU's Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

Chinese companies have been absent in building capacity in EU, due to lack of upstream material supply. EU's own capacity building is cautious and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: 300274SZ/DQ US/CSIQ US/JKSUS/601615SH/2208HK/601012SH/XPEV/1211HK/LI/NIO/TSLA

new energy installed capacity slows down, Xpeng Motors' losses narrow with increased software sales to Volkswagen, BYD falls while Tesla recovers,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: NIO/1211 HK/LI/XPEV/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH/JKS/ LKNCY

​Germany ending EV subsidies has little immediate impact on Chinese makers. China's customs export data for November shows a decline. "Thailand...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/Cotti Coffe/XPEV/BIDU/NIO/LI/JKS/DIDI/300274 CH/300750 CH/601012 CH

​Cotti Coffee plans tea expansion, MIIT to launch intelligent car access network, China's PV and wind power decline worsens in October.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Germany ending EV subsidies has little immediate impact on Chinese makers. China's customs export data for November shows a decline. "Thailand...

Cotti Coffee plans tea expansion, MIIT to launch intelligent car access network, China's PV and wind power decline worsens in October.