Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.</li>
<li>The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.</li>
<li>We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers. </li>
</ul>


Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.
The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.
We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers. 


Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.</li>
<li>Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.</li>
<li>Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. </li>
</ul>


U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.
Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.
Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view. 


Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.</li>
<li>Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.</a>
</li>
</ul>


Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI's ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.

JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN),  Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)  expects surge in PAT upto 700%.



Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

<ul>
<li>Promoters of multiple large-cap Indian firms made significant insider purchases in March 2025.</li>
<li>Sectors with notable activity include financials, real estate, and specialty chemicals.</li>
<li>Many of these stocks have already rallied post-purchase, with gains reaching up to 30%.</li>
</ul>


Promoters of multiple large-cap Indian firms made significant insider purchases in March 2025.
Sectors with notable activity include financials, real estate, and specialty chemicals.
Many of these stocks have already rallied post-purchase, with gains reaching up to 30%.


Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>While flats prices recovered marginally, longs price moderated QoQ: During Q4FY25, domestic steel realizations for flat products recovered a modest 1% QoQ</li><li>However, longs prices came under pressure and fell ~1-2% QoQ</li><li>Thus, blended steel prices have been broadly flattish QoQ</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

While flats prices recovered marginally, longs price moderated QoQ: During Q4FY25, domestic steel realizations for flat products recovered a modest 1% QoQHowever, longs prices came under pressure and fell ~1-2% QoQThus, blended steel prices have been broadly flattish QoQContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals (Q4FY25 Results Preview): Gross Margin-Led QoQ Margin Recovery

India

Jindal Steel Limited manufactures steel products. The Company offers steel rails, parallel flange beams and columns, angles and channels, plates, and coils, as well as engages in the power, mining, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction businesses. Jindal Steel serves customers worldwide.

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Jindal Steel (JINDALST IN)

Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

Tata Steel's strong India performance in Q4 FY25 overshadowed by ongoing European losses, with strategic pivot and lower EV/EBITDA multiple...

Rahul Jain

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025

Promoters increased stakes in key large-cap Indian stocks in March'25, signaling strong conviction. Focus on financials, real estate, and chemicals...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Metals (Q4FY25 Results Preview): Gross Margin-Led QoQ Margin Recovery

While flats prices recovered marginally, longs price moderated QoQ: During Q4FY25, domestic steel realizations for flat products recovered a modest...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

​Tata Steel's strong India performance in Q4 FY25 overshadowed by ongoing European losses, with strategic pivot and lower EV/EBITDA multiple...

Rahul Jain

Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound

The breakthrough in US-China trade talks removes a major overhang on global trade and is a near-term positive for metals, as it reduces tariff...

Rahul Jain

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

​Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...

Nimish Maheshwari

Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025

Promoters increased stakes in key large-cap Indian stocks in March'25, signaling strong conviction. Focus on financials, real estate, and chemicals...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Metals (Q4FY25 Results Preview): Gross Margin-Led QoQ Margin Recovery

While flats prices recovered marginally, longs price moderated QoQ: During Q4FY25, domestic steel realizations for flat products recovered a modest...

HDFC Securities

Tata Steel's strong India performance in Q4 FY25 overshadowed by ongoing European losses, with strategic pivot and lower EV/EBITDA multiple...

Steelmakers in India are poised for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling RM costs boosting OPM by INR 1,200-1,800/ tonne, leading...