Equities. Commodities. Metals & Mining

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Strong focus on capacity enhancement. Increasing steelmaking capacity by 65% over the next 3 years to 15.9mt.</li>
<li>Recent margin dip provides attractive entry point. Promoters/insiders have bought into recent decline in stock price</li>
<li>Attractive long-term play on rising domestic steel demand. Low debt levels at &lt;1.4x EBITDA allows for steady capacity addition. </li>
</ul>


Strong focus on capacity enhancement. Increasing steelmaking capacity by 65% over the next 3 years to 15.9mt.
Recent margin dip provides attractive entry point. Promoters/insiders have bought into recent decline in stock price
Attractive long-term play on rising domestic steel demand. Low debt levels at &lt;1.4x EBITDA allows for steady capacity addition. 


Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) - Cyclical Downturn Provides Attractive Entry Point

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

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Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.</li>
<li>The move supports domestic steelmakers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.</li>
<li>Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.</li>
</ul>


India proposes a 12% safeguard duty on key flat steel imports for 200 days, targeting low-cost shipments from FTA partners like Japan and South Korea.
The move supports domestic steelmakers like JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) and Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) by restoring pricing power, creating room for further price hikes of INR 1,000–1,500/Ton.
Near-Term profitability looks up for flat-steel players, but risks from WTO pushback, MSME cost pressures, and the policy’s temporary nature warrant cautious optimism.


India’s 12% Safeguard Duty: A Tailwind for Domestic Steelmakers or a Risk to Downstream Industries?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pepsico-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4967:1" rel="noopener">Pepsico Inc (PEP US)</a> plans to scale its snacks and food business in India by customizing products for regional tastes and promoting innovation.</li>
<li>India is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, driven by reforms, consumption, and infrastructure growth.</li>
<li>India finalizes a $7.6 billion deal for 26 Rafale M jets, boosting naval air power and strengthening Indo-Pacific deterrence..</li>
</ul>



Pepsico Inc (PEP US) plans to scale its snacks and food business in India by customizing products for regional tastes and promoting innovation.
India is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, driven by reforms, consumption, and infrastructure growth.
India finalizes a $7.6 billion deal for 26 Rafale M jets, boosting naval air power and strengthening Indo-Pacific deterrence..


#121 India Insight: PepsiCo Expands, Rafale Boost for Navy, India to Be 3rd Largest Economy

<ul>
<li>On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.</li>
<li>Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.</li>
<li>Outperformance to continue? <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> ,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a>have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.</li>
</ul>


On March 19, 2025, India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended a 12% provisional safeguard duty on imports of certain steel products for 200 days.
Past measures have produced mixed results but given the massive expansion plans of most large steel majors they have been aggressively lobbying for its implementation.
Outperformance to continue? JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN),Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) ,Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)have significantly outperformed benchmark Nifty over the last 6 months despite weak earnings.


Steel: New Safeguard Measures Imply Outperformance Could Continue.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcelormittal-sa-8b816bb6-eb73-416f-a30a-56f93d1deb03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38577:1" rel="noopener">ArcelorMittal (MT US)</a> reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.</li>
<li>Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. </li>
<li>Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> </li>
</ul>



ArcelorMittal (MT US) reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.
Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe. 
Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) , Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) 


ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?

India

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. (JSPL) manufactures sponge iron, mild steel, and cement. The Company also produces power, conducts mining operations for iron ore and coal, and explores for natural gas and oil. JSPL, with its diverse resources, also contributes to the construction of infrastructure.

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Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN)